Quantitative injury rate forecasts have been somewhat scarce (short of Pardee’s long-range fatality forecasts to 2100). During the search, I came across the previously mentioned Institute for Alternative Futures’ Public Health Scenarios 2030. Here’s expected scenario from their “Injury Prevention Driver Forecasts”:
- Technological innovations in design and monitoring – and decreased public tolerance – reduce unintentional injury rates for certain types of injuries
- Rates of violence continue to be closely tied to poverty, race, education, and geography
- Some innovative programs prove successful locally but are leadership-dependent and unsustainable
- Injury-related fatalities decrease but injury-related costs – including long-term care and benefits – rise due to inadequate focus on primary prevention
- Political and cultural opposition to a population-based approach hinders the most effective local policies from being embraced on a nationwide level
Src: “Injury Prevention Driver Forecasts.” 2014. Institute for Alternative Futures.