{"id":45446,"date":"2026-01-16T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/?p=45446"},"modified":"2026-01-15T12:08:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T19:08:26","slug":"book-freak-193-how-to-decide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/book-freak-193-how-to-decide\/","title":{"rendered":"Book Freak #193: How to Decide"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Get How to Decide<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drawing from her experience as a professional poker player and decision strategist, How to Decide<\/em> offers a practical toolkit for making better choices by separating decision quality from outcome quality \u2014 teaching you to think in probabilities, overcome cognitive biases, and stop second-guessing yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Core Principles<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Stop \u201cResulting\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u201cResulting\u201d is Duke\u2019s term for judging a decision\u2019s quality by its outcome. A good decision can lead to a bad outcome (and vice versa) because of factors outside your control. When you overfit decision quality to outcome quality, you risk repeating errors that preceded a lucky good outcome and avoiding good decisions that didn\u2019t work out due to bad luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Only-Option Test<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

When stuck between choices, ask yourself: \u201cIf this were the only option I had, would I be happy with it?\u201d If you\u2019d be happy with either option, the decision is actually easy \u2014 flip a coin. This test reveals that \u201chard\u201d decisions are often easy because both options are acceptable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think in Probabilities<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Instead of binary thinking (\u201dthis will work\u201d or \u201cthis won\u2019t\u201d), assign percentage likelihoods to outcomes. Every decision involves the Three P\u2019s: Preferences (what you value), Payoffs (potential gains and losses), and Probabilities (how likely each outcome is). This framework forces you to acknowledge uncertainty and consider alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get the Outside View<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Solicit feedback from others before making decisions, but do it right: let them answer first before expressing your own opinion to avoid contaminating their views. Ask them to argue against your position. The goal is getting genuine perspectives, not confirmation of what you already believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Try It Now<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
  1. Think of a decision you\u2019re currently facing with two or more options.<\/li>
  2. Apply the Only-Option Test to each choice: \u201cIf this were my only option, would I be happy with it?\u201d<\/li>
  3. For each option, list the possible outcomes and assign a probability (percentage) to each.<\/li>
  4. Apply the Happiness Test: \u201cHow much will this affect my happiness in a week? A month? A year?\u201d If not much, spend less time deciding.<\/li>
  5. If the options still seem close, flip a coin \u2014 and notice how you feel when it lands. Your reaction reveals your true preference.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Quote<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cThe quality of the outcome casts a shadow over our ability to see the quality of the decision.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Simple Tools for Making Better Choices<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13684,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[76],"tags":[2397],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45446"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13684"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45446"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45446\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45448,"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45446\/revisions\/45448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kk.org\/cooltools\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}