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Drawing from her experience as a professional poker player and decision strategist, How to Decide offers a practical toolkit for making better choices by separating decision quality from outcome quality — teaching you to think in probabilities, overcome cognitive biases, and stop second-guessing yourself.
Core Principles
Stop “Resulting”
“Resulting” is Duke’s term for judging a decision’s quality by its outcome. A good decision can lead to a bad outcome (and vice versa) because of factors outside your control. When you overfit decision quality to outcome quality, you risk repeating errors that preceded a lucky good outcome and avoiding good decisions that didn’t work out due to bad luck.
The Only-Option Test
When stuck between choices, ask yourself: “If this were the only option I had, would I be happy with it?” If you’d be happy with either option, the decision is actually easy — flip a coin. This test reveals that “hard” decisions are often easy because both options are acceptable.
Think in Probabilities
Instead of binary thinking (”this will work” or “this won’t”), assign percentage likelihoods to outcomes. Every decision involves the Three P’s: Preferences (what you value), Payoffs (potential gains and losses), and Probabilities (how likely each outcome is). This framework forces you to acknowledge uncertainty and consider alternatives.
Get the Outside View
Solicit feedback from others before making decisions, but do it right: let them answer first before expressing your own opinion to avoid contaminating their views. Ask them to argue against your position. The goal is getting genuine perspectives, not confirmation of what you already believe.
Try It Now
Think of a decision you’re currently facing with two or more options.
Apply the Only-Option Test to each choice: “If this were my only option, would I be happy with it?”
For each option, list the possible outcomes and assign a probability (percentage) to each.
Apply the Happiness Test: “How much will this affect my happiness in a week? A month? A year?” If not much, spend less time deciding.
If the options still seem close, flip a coin — and notice how you feel when it lands. Your reaction reveals your true preference.
Quote
“The quality of the outcome casts a shadow over our ability to see the quality of the decision.”
