Extrapolations

technology

Media


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources:

GLOBAL
ownership vs. access ($ millions), 2009-2019, McKinsey
total media consumption CAGR, 2010-2015, Zenith
total media consumption min/day, 2010/2015-2018, Zenith
total internet consump min/day, 2015/2018, Zenith
mobile internet consump min/day, 2016, Zenith
all other (besides mobile internet) media consump % change, 2016, Zenith
desktop internet consump min/day, 2010/2014/2016, Zenith
traditional cinema consump % change, 2016, Zenith
traditional outdoor consump % change, 2016, Zenith
traditional television consump min/day, % of consump, % change, 2015/2016/2018, Zenith
traditional radio consump % change, 2016, Zenith
Traditional newspapers consump, % change, 2016, Zenith
traditional magazines consump % change, 2016, Zenith
consumer spending, billions, 2020, Activate
digital video streaming
consumer ebooks
digital music streaming
digital newspapers
esports
digital magazines

UNITED STATES PER ADULT
all digital media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
all mobile (nonvoice) media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile social networks time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile video time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
all desk/lap-top media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top video time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top social media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
other connected devices time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital TV time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital print media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital newspapers time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
all digital and non-digital media total time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

UNITED STATES, TOTAL AMONG ALL USERS
gaming hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
messaging hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
social media hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
audio hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
video hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

UNITED STATES
subscription video on demand, subscribers by number of services, 2016-2020, Activate
music revenues by sale type, $ and CAGR, 2006-2016, Activate
music streaming revenue, ads vs. paid subscriptions, 2013-2020, Activate
smart speakers household penetration, millions, 2015-2020, Activate
aggregate media spending CAGR, 2016-2020, Activate
internet advertising
internet access
out-of-home advertising
video games
music
tv advertising
business-to-business
book publishing
radio
cinema
tv & video
magazine publishing
newspaper publishing
internet users % of population, 2000-2014, ITU
broadband subscriptions, 2000-2015, ITU
wired-line vs. wireless users, 2000-2014, Activate

In addition to these data sets, I’ve also noted a large set of VR predictions by Jesse Schell.

Findings

General Media Consumption

McKinsey publishes an annual global media spending/revenues report examining the last five years of historic data and forecasting trends for the next five years. The most recent report includes the following ownership vs. access chart:

mckinsey-global-ownership-vs-access-2009-2019

Note: Ownership consists of home video physical sales, physical recorded music sales and recorded music digital downloads. Access consists of OTT digital
video, recorded music digital subscriptions and recorded music ad-supported digital streaming.

Src:
McKinsey&Company. July 2016.
Global Media Report 2015: Global Industry Overview.” P.21.

Citing:
McKinsey & Company, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Older McKinsey reports are available, which offer some older, historic data points. For example, the 2014-2018 Outlook includes some historic data going back to 2013.

*

Zenith (part of Publicis Media) is a marking consulting firm. It’s annual, global survey (two years running), “Media Consumption Forecasts,” estimates recent, current, and near-term media consumption patterns. The current report forecasts general media consumption trends two years out, to 2018. The report estimates time spent reading newspapers and magazines, watching television, listening to the radio, visiting the cinema, using the internet, and viewing outdoor advertising while out of the home. 71 countries are covered, and regional estimates are available (although the freely available excerpts below are global).

Excerpts:

Total media consumption
2010-2015: +7.9% (driven by internet consump), avg +1.5% per year
2010: 403 min/day
2015: 435 min/day
2016: +1.4%
2017: +1.2%
2018: 448 min/day, +0.4% (mobile consump levels off)

Total internet consumption
2015: 110 min/day
2018: 31% global media consumption

Mobile internet consumption
2016: +27.7%, 86 min/day, accounting for 71% of internet consump

Overall media consumption
2016: +1.4%

All other media consumption (besides mobile internet)
2016: -3.4%

Desktop internet consumption
2010: 36 min/day
2014: 52 min/day
2016: 36 min/day

Traditional cinema consumption
2016: -0.5%

Traditional outdoor consumption
2016: -0.8%

Traditional television consumption
[declining, but still the most popular medium]
2015: 177 min/day, 41% of media consumption
2016: -1.5%
2018: 38% of media consumption

Traditional radio consumption
2016: -2.4%

Traditional newspapers consumption
2016: -5.6%

Traditional magazines consumption
2016: -6.7%

Note: [The traditional media] figures only refer to time spent with these media in their traditional forms – with printed publications and broadcast television channels and radio stations. Much of the time that consumers spend on the internet is devoted to consuming content that has been produced by traditional publishers and broadcasters.

Src:
Zenith. June 2016.
Media Consumption Forecasts.
Via:
Contact:
Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting, jbarnard1@publicisgroupe.net
Tim Collison, Global Communications Director, tcolliso@publicisgroupe.net

*

eMarketer has been publishing short-term forecasts of general media consumption longer than Zenith. It’s latest forecasts to 2018 show similar trends, although the total time consumed estimates are quite different.

Excerpts:

emarketer-media-consump-2012-2018

While mobile devices enable people to consume media content anywhere at any time, the numbers suggest a saturation point is near—and that increased time spent with one medium will tend to come at the expense of time spent with another, as explored in a new eMarketer report, “US Time Spent with Media: eMarketer’s Updated Estimates for Spring 2016.”

Src:
eMarketer. June 2016.
Growth in Time Spent with Media Is Slowing.

*

Technology strategist Michael Wolf, of Activate, recently presented a number of media forecasts at WSJDLive, The Wall Street Jounral’s global tech conference.

Here are excerpts:

activate-time-with-media-cagr-2015-2020

activate-svod-subs-per-subscriber-2016-2020

activate-music-streaming-subs-vs-ads-2013-2020

activate-music-streaming-rev-2006-2016

activate-smart-speakers-2015-2020

activate-global-consumer-spend-digi-media-2015-2020

Src:
Activate. October 2016.
Tech and Media Outlook 2017.

*

PwC produces an annual 5-year outlook for the entertainment and media industry which includes forecasts of consumer spending and advertising revenues.

Here are forecasts for US aggregate media spending for 2016-2020:

pwc-us-aggregate-media-spending-cagr-2016-2020

Src:
PRNewswire. June 2016.
PwC’s Entertainment & Media Outlook Forecasts U.S. Industry Spending to Reach $720 Billion by 2020.

citing:
PwC. June 2016.
“PwC Global Media and Entertainment Outlook: 2016-2020.”

*

PwC’s Chris Lederer, Partner, PwC’s Strategy&, Entertainment & Media practice, gave the following generalizations and examples from the latest report:

“At the highest level our annual Global entertainment and Media Outlook shows a mature media industry with slowing growth prospects.”

“The countries with large populations under 35 are faster growers than countries with larger aged populations,” Lederer observes.

More specifically, PwC’s analysis found that “on average, E&M spending in the 10 youngest markets is growing three times as rapidly as in the 10 oldest markets.”

pwc-consumer-magazine-growth-cagr-2015-2020

2016 is the year when global Internet advertising revenue will surpass TV advertising

pwc-global-tv-internet-advertising-2011-2020

src:
Damian Radcliffe. August 2016.
PwC’s global media outlook 2016-2020: six key trends.
The Media Briefing.

***

Internet Users

ITU publishes an annual estimate of the percentage of internet users in each country.

United States, 2000-2014

Src:
ITU. 2016.
Percentage of Individuals using the Internet (excel).
[ICT Statistics]

***

Broadband Subscriptions

itu-bu-global-broadband-subs-2000-2015

Src:
Andrew Meola. Jun 2016.
All media consumption is declining – with one exception.
Business Insider.
Citing: ITU

ITU data is here:

Src:
ITU. 2016.
“Key ICT indicators for developed and developing countries and the world (totals and penetration rates).” [XLS]
[ICT Statistics]

***

Wired-Line Vs. Wireless Users

activate-wireline-wireless-penetration-rates-2000-2014

Src:
Activate. October 2016.
Tech and Media Outlook 2017.

***

VR Predictions

Game Designer Jesse Schell has made a large set of 40 (mostly) falsifiable predictions for VR, looking out as far as 2025.

Src:
Jesse Schell. March 2016.
40 VR/AR Predictions – GDC 2016

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Posted by cc on November 18, 2016 at 9:00 am | comment count



Tech Research Firms’ Annual Predictions


NYT’s Bits blog covered the recently released annual prediction reports from IDC, Gartner, and Forrester. IDC and Gartner’s reports include several 35 year predictions. Forrester’s report focuses on 2016, but reinforces the predictions of the other firms.

Although we’re generally after forecasts that address the everyday life of the average American, the forecasts in this set have broad economic and employment implications that certainly will affect a large number of people, and certainly the technology tools we use every day.

IDC’s report features several predictions for the 20182020 period, meant to provide guidance for business and industry strategists in the coming year. Here are a few excerpts via Bits as well as the original report:

•By 2018, corporations pursuing digital transformation strategies would “more than double the size of their software development teams.”

•By 2018, the number of Internet of Things devices will more than double, prompting the development of 200,000 new apps. By 2020, devices will triple and apps will exceed 250,000.

•By 2018, 65% of all IT assets used by companies will be housed offsite in collocation, hosting, and cloud data centers and one third of IT “staff” will actually be employees of organizations’ third party managed service providers.

•By 2020, more than 30 percent of today’s tech suppliers will “not exist as we know them today,” having been acquired or failed.

•By 2020, spending on cloud services and related hardware and software will be more than $500 billion, three times the current level.

•By 2020, providers of underlying cloud infrastructure will significantly consolidate,” with “six or fewer cloud platform vendors” holding 80 percent or so of the market. Probably Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, IBM, Alibaba and Tencent.

•By 2020, over 70% of 3rd Platform IT spending will be driven by doing entirely new things, rather than on using new technologies to do traditional things in a new way.

•By 2020, 50% or more of e-commerce transactions will be enabled or influenced by Facebook and other regional social network leaders (e.g., Tencent’s Weibo in China).

•By 2020, one of the more frenetic IoT segments, wearables, will consolidate, as over half of today’s players will exit the market.

 

Gartner issued a similar set of predictions to 20182020, including the following:

•By 2018, 20 percent of business content will be authored by machines (eg: shareholder reports, legal documents, market reports, press releases, articles and white papers).

•By 2018, six billion connected things will be requesting support.

•By 2018, more than 3 million workers globally will be supervised by a “robo-boss.”

•By year-end 2018, 20 percent of smart buildings will have suffered from digital vandalism.

•By 2018, 45 percent of the fastest growing companies will have fewer employees than instances of smart machines (eg: fully automated supermarket, drone-only surveillance services).

•By year-end 2018, customer digital assistant will recognize individuals by face and voice across channels and partners.

•By 2018, two million employees will be required to wear health and fitness tracking devices as a condition of employment (eg: emergency responders, pro athletes, political leaders, airline pilots, industrial workers, remote field workers).

•By 2020, autonomous software agents outside of human control will participate in five percent of all economic transactions (eg: banking, insurance, markets, exchanges, crowdfunding).

•By 2020, smart agents (virtual personal assistants) will facilitate 40 percent of mobile interactions, and the post-app era will begin to dominate.

•Through 2020, 95 percent of cloud security failures will be the customer’s fault.

 

Forrester’s report only looks out as far as 2016, and doesn’t offer as many numeric predictions, but the concepts are similar. Excerpts:

•Leaders will understand and anticipate individual needs to deliver personalized experiences, sharply increasing their lead in the market.

•We will see extraordinary leadership disruption as companies adapt to a customer-led market.

•Leaders will invest in culture to accelerate both the pace of change and their speed of business.

•Cutting-edge algorithms will give leaders a leg up over competitors drowning in data and using run-of-the-mill analytical tools.

•Privacy will move from a niche consideration to a value to which customers will respond.

 

Sources

Steve Lohr. November 4, 2015. “Digital Transformation Going Mainstream in 2016, IDC Predicts”. Bits. New York Times.

Frank Gens. November 2015. “IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2016 Predictions — Leading Digital Transformation to Scale.” IDC #259850.

October 6. “Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users for 2016 and Beyond.” Gartner.

October 2015. “The 2016 Top 10 Critical Success Factors To Determine Who Wins And Who Fails In The Age Of The Customer.” Forrester.

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Posted by cc on December 2, 2015 at 12:27 am | comment count