Extrapolations

This is a collection of long-term forecasts based on quantitative data from diverse sectors. Long-term means 20 years or more. Diverse means forecasts in a wide range of activities such as transportation, education, food, shelter, entertainment, technology, etc. You can help grow the collection. Please check our list of desired indicators and submit suggestions to extrapolations@kk.org. We're also collecting and crossposting any and all attempts to extrapolate the future on Tumblr and Pinterest. You can follow us on Twitter too.

Transportation: Air and Train Travel


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators:
AIR TRAVEL
revenue passenger miles, 2014-2040 & 2014-2034, US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Boeing
seat miles demanded by plane size, 2014-2040, EIA
annual passengers on US-based flights, 2003-2015, Dept. of Transportation (DoT)
annual passengers to/from the US, 2015-2036, FAA
passengers to/from/within the US CAGR, 2014-2034, IATA
number of aircraft by type, 1965-2014, DoT
number of certificated aircraft, 1960-2005, Statista (citing AIA, DoT, FAA)
number of commercial aircraft by size, 2006-2036 & 2014/2034, FAA, Boeing
number of general aircraft by size, 2006-2036, FAA
number of airlines, [forthcoming data] & 1950/2002 & speculation, DoT, Aviation Mgmt College, Boeing
number of airports, 1980-2014 & current count by size, DoT, FAA
incoming intl travel and “mega-cities”, 2012/2032, Airbus
PERSONAL DRONES
consumer drone market USD millions, 2013-2024, Grand View Research
RAIL TRAVEL
passenger miles light rail and heavy rail, 1980-2014, DoT
passenger miles commuter rail and Amtrak, 19602014, DoT
miles of subway trackway, 1997-2014, DoT
high speed rail development map, 2015-2030 & undated, US High Speed Rail Association, DoT

Findings

Miles Flown

Travel Demand — Revenue Passenger Miles (billion miles)
EIA-air-travel-demand-rev-passenger-miles-2014-2040

Note: Revenue revenue passenger miles are calculated by multiplying the number of revenue paying-passengers aboard the vehicle by the distance traveled. Sometimes abbreviated to RPM or RPK.

Seat Miles Demanded (total and by plane size)
EIA-air-travel-seat-miles-demand-by-plane-size-2014-2040

src:
US Energy Information Administration. 2016.
Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Transportation Sector
Table: Air Travel Energy Use

NOTE: ONLY THE DATA TABLES ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE. THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND OTHER NARRATIVE PARTS OF THE REPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE AFTER JULY 21, 2016. CHECK BACK HERE.

*

Boeing-air-traffic-growth-RPKs-2014-2034

“Owing to network carrier capacity discipline, we think that the domestic US market is ripe for even higher growth than previously forecast. Our revised domestic forecast has traffic growth in the range of 2.5 to 3.0 percent over the next five years. With a load factor of 83 percent for 2014 (and average load factors in excess of 80 percent over the past few years), network carriers may be prompted to further ease their capacity discipline in the face of competitive pressures and continued economic recovery.”

src:
Boeing. 2015.
Current Market Outlook: 2015–2034.” P. 23, 42.
contact: BoeingCurrentMarketOutlook@Boeing.com

Passengers Flying

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today that U.S. airlines and foreign airlines serving the United States carried an all-time high of 895.5 million systemwide (domestic and international) scheduled service passengers in 2015, 5.0 percent more than the previous record high of 853.1 million reached in 2014. The systemwide increase was the result of a 5.0 percent rise from 2014 in the number of passengers on domestic flights (696.2 million in 2015) and 4.7 percent growth from 2014 in passengers on U.S. and foreign airlines’ flights to and from the U.S. (199.4 million in 2015)

Annual Total Passengers on US-Based Flights
DOT-passengers-US-based-flights-2003-2015

Data available from the source (table, or excel)

src:
Department of Transportation. March 2016.
2015 U.S.-Based Airline Traffic Data.
Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
media contact: Dave Smallen, 202-366-5568

TO DO: SEE IF THE DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION HAS OLDER FIGURES.

*

FAA-air-passengers-to-and-from-US-2015-2036

FAA-commercial-air-carriers-general-2015-2036

FAA-US-commercial-air-passengers-2015-2036

Enplanements = passengers

Note: Mainline carriers are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more seats. Regionals are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the mainline carriers.

src:
Federal Aviation Administration. Accessed July 1, 2016.
FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal years 2016-2036.

*

Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% that will see 1.2 billion passengers by 2034 (559 million more than 2014).

src:
IATA. October 2014.
New IATA Passenger Forecast Reveals Fast-Growing Markets of the Future.

TO DO: INQUIRE ABOUT NEWER FORECAST
David Oxley, IATA Senior Economist, oxleyd@iata.org
OR corpcomms@iata.org

Number and Types of Commercial Jets

Table 1-13: Active U.S. Air Carrier and General Aviation Fleet by Type of Aircraft (Number of carriers)

Annual data available 1965-2014

src:
US Department of Transportation. Accessed July 1, 2016.
Table 1-13: Active U.S. Air Carrier and General Aviation Fleet by Type of Aircraft (Number of carriers).”

TO DO: PULL DATA OUT INTO A GOOGLE SPREADSHEET

*

Number of aircraft of U.S. certificated air carriers from 1960 to 2005

The timeline shows the number of U.S. certificated air carrier aircraft from 1960 to 2005. In 2000, there were 8,055 certificated air carrier aircraft in the United States.

Statista-certificated-aircraft-1960-2005

src:
Statistia. Accessed July 8, 2016.
Number of aircraft* of U.S. certificated air carriers from 1960 to 2005.

citing:
AIA; Dept. of Transportation; Federal Aviation Administration

FORECAST BELOW

*

US Commercial Aircraft Forecast
(CC’s notes: includes scheduled air services – pilot is paid, must have commercial pilot certificate)

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 6,871 in 2015 to 8,414 in 2036, an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent a year. Increased demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets.

FAA-US-commercial-aircraft-2006-2036

NB: narrow-body
WB: wide-body

General Aviation Forecast
(CC’s notes: does not include schedule air services – pilot not paid, private pilot certificate is sufficient)

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 203,880 in 2015 to 210,695 aircraft by 2036.

FAA-active-general-aircraft-2006-2036

LSA: light-sport-aircraft (category established in 2005)

Note: An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.

src:
Federal Aviation Administration. Accessed July 1, 2016.
FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal years 2016-2036.

*

Boeing-traffic-fleet-growth-2014-2034

src:
Boeing. 2015.
Current Market Outlook: 2015–2034.” p.42
contact: BoeingCurrentMarketOutlook@Boeing.com

Number of Airlines

The Dept. of Transportation has a simple PDF list of certificated air carriers and commuter air carriers, but there’s no “member since” info and presumably doesn’t include former members.

https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/certificated-air-carriers-list

https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/commuter-air-carriers-list

https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/licensing/US-carriers

Air Carrier Fitness Division
Office of Aviation Analysis
Dept. of Transportation
1200 New Jersey Ave, SE
Washington, DC 20590
United States
Phone: (202) 366-9721
Business Hours:
8:30am-5:00pm ET, M-F

EMAILED LAURALYN REMO, laura.remo@dot.gov, JULY 8, 2016.
CAITLIN HARVEY WROTE BACK RIGHT AWAY. SHE’LL WORK ON GATHERING SOME FIGURES.

*

Certificated airlines in the US
1950 – 17 airlines
2002 – 12 airlines

src:
Aviation Management College.
Introduction to Aviation Economics.
Slide 15.

*

“Post the 2008 downturn, the introduction of the ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) business model in the United States is literally taking off. Spirit Airlines is the fastest growing domestic airline, recording double-digit growth. Frontier Airlines, which is undergoing a change in strategy, is expected to challenge Spirit in the quest to become the preeminent ULCC in the United States. The expectation is that over time, the industry will further consolidate, with the LCC and smaller network carriers becoming potential consolidation targets.

[emphasis mine]

src:
Boeing. 2015.
Current Market Outlook: 2015–2034.” P.42
contact: BoeingCurrentMarketOutlook@Boeing.com

Number of Airports

Table 1-3: Number of U.S. Airports

Annual data available 1980-2014

src:
US Department of Transportation. Accessed July 6, 2016.
Table 1-3: Number of U.S. Airports.

NOTE: THESE FIGURES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THOSE BELOW DESCRIBING THE NUMBER OF US AIRPORTS WHERE REGIONAL AIRLINES OPERATE. THOSE FIGS MIGHT BE REFERRING TO “CERTIFICATED” AIRPORTS, BUT DATA FOR THESE AIRPORTS ARE ONLY AVAILABLE 1994-2004.

TO DO: PULL DATA OUT INTO A GOOGLE SPREADSHEET

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A total of 614 U.S. airports are served by regional airlines, with 70% (431 airports) relying exclusively on regional airlines for their scheduled service.

The United States’ air transportation network is the most developed in the world, but is evolving as airlines battle rising costs. While regional aircraft operate approximately 33% of commercial flights worldwide, 50% of all commercial flights in the United States are flown by regional aircraft with less than 100 seats. According to the Regional Airline Association (RAA), average capacity of U.S. regional aircraft has increased from 37 seats in 2000 to 50 seats in 2005 and to 56 seats in 2013. Average trip length increased from 476 kilometres in 2000 to 763 kilometres in 2013. These trends are expected to continue as new large regional aircraft replace 20-to59-seat aircraft.

src:
Bombardier. July 2014.
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2014-2033.
P.31

citing:
Regional Airline Association (RAA)

*

2014
Total FAA Towers – 264
Total Contract Towers – 252

2014 airport hubs
30 large hub airports (1%+ total US passenger enplanements)
31 medium hub airports (.25-.99%)
74 small hub airports (.05-.249%)
381 non-hub airports non-hub airports (less than .05%)
Total: 516

For example, Atlanta was the busiest large hub in 2014, and it saw 6.13% of total US enplanements in 2014.

Enplanements at large hubs expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.0% through 2040. Operations (take-offs and landings) at these hubs are forecast to increase at an annual rate of 1.6%.

Medium and small hubs are forecast to increase at 2.0% and 1.7% annually, respectively. Operations at medium hubs expected to grow at 1.3% annually. Operations at small hubs are forecast to grow at .8% per year.

Non-hub operations accounted for 52% of total operations at FAA and Federal contract towers. General aviation operations (e.g.: private) accounted for the majority of operations at these smaller airports.

src:
Federal Aviation Administration. 2015.
Terminal Area Forecast Summary: Fiscal Years 2015-2040.

contact:
Roger Schaufele, Jr.
Manager
Forecast and Performance Analysis Division
Office of Aviation Policy and Plans
202-267-3306
Roger.Schaufele@faa.gov

EMAILED ROGER SHAUFELE JULY 8, 2016.

ALSO TRY CONTACTING THE FAA OFFICE OF THE ASSOCIATE ADMIN FOR AIRPORTS. NO EMAIL, PHONE IS DISCONNECTED.

*

Airport Data retrieval form from the FAA.

TO DO: CONTACT FAA FOR AN ANNUAL TALLY. NOT SURE BEST CONTACT AVENUE.
TRY THE FORM HERE. OR THE OFFICE OF THE ASSOCIATE ADMIN FOR AIRPORTS

Incoming Intl Travel to US

Airbus-airline-origin-destination-flows-2012-2032

In 2012, the US has one “aviation mega-city” receiving more than 50,000 daily long-haul passengers. In 2032, there will be five.

Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

citing: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers

src:
Bob Lange. September 2013.
Global Market Forecast 2013-2032.
Airbus. P. 15, 29

Personal Drones

Grand View Research is tracking the consumer drone market, and although the summary for their recent report does not include much unit data, the forecast does show the relative growth across three consumer applications: prosumer, toy/hobbyist/DYI, and photogrammetry.

North America consumer drone market by technology, 2012 – 2022 [sic] (USD Million)
GVR-consumer-drone-market-2013-2024

src:
Grand View Research. May 2016.
Consumer Drone Market Analysis By Product (Multi-Rotor, Nano), By Application (Prosumer, Toy/Hobbyist, Photogrammetry) And Segment Forecasts To 2024.

Rail Passenger Miles

Table 1-40: U.S. Passenger-Miles (Millions)

Includes
Light rail: 1980-2014
Heavy rail: 1980-2014
Commuter rail: 1960-2014
Intercity/Amtrak: 1960-2014

Note: This table also includes figures for air, highway, bus and ferry travel.

src:
US Department of Transportation. Accessed July 11, 2016.
Table 1-40: U.S. Passenger-Miles (Millions).

TO DO: PULL DATA OUT INTO A GOOGLE SPREADSHEET

Definitions src

Heavy Rail: includes subways, elevated railways, and metropolitan (metro) railways and refers to an electric railway with the capacity to transport a heavy volume of passenger traffic and characterized by exclusive rights-of-way, multicar trains, high speed, rapid acceleration, sophisticated signaling, and high-platform loading.

Light Rail: A streetcar-type vehicle operated on city streets, semiexclusive rights-of-way, or exclusive rights-of-way. Service may be provided by step-entry vehicles or by level boarding.

Commuter Rail: Urban passenger train service for short-distance travel between a central city and adjacent suburb. Does not include rapid rail transit or light rail service.

Amtrak: Operated by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation of Washington, D.C., this rail system was created by the Rail Passenger Service Act of 1970 (P.L. 91-518, 84 Stat. 1327) and given the responsibility for the operation of intercity, as distinct from suburban, passenger trains between points designated by the Secretary of Transportation.

Miles of Trackway

Subway: 1997-2014 (in separate annual reports)

src:
US Department of Transportation ~1997-2014.
NTD Data Reports.
Federal Transit Administration.

TO DO: PULL DATA OUT INTO A GOOGLE SPREADSHEET

High-Speed Rail

The High Speed Rail Association has published a US network phasing plan showing construction phases from 2015-2030.

US_HSR_Phasing_Map-2015-2030

src:
US High Speed Rail Association. Accessed July 11, 2016.
US HSR Network Phasing Plan.

NOTE: This plan may reflect expect START dates for construction, rather than completion. For example, while work on phase 1 of California’s high-speed rail system began in 2014, it’s not expected to be complete until 2029. src

*

In 2009, the Department of Transportation published a strategic plan for US high-speed rail development, which designated 10 high-speed corridors.

DoT-high-speed-rail-2009-plan-map

Note: The plan does not include a specific timeline for completion of the high-speed corridors.

src:
US Department of Transportation. April 2009.
“High-Speed Rail Strategic Plan.” P.6

http://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L02833

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Posted by Claudia Lamar on July 15, 2016 at 10:31 pm | comment count



Transportation: General Transit and Cars


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators:
vehicles per household, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
licensed drivers per household, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
vehicles per licensed driver, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
vehicles per worker, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
daily person trips, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
daily person miles of travel (PMT), 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
daily vehicle trips, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
daily vehicle miles of travel (VMT), 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
total annual VMT, 1994-2032 & 2014-2044 & 1970-2098, Dept. of Transportation (Frontier Group), Thomas
total annual VMT for light-duty vehicles (LDV), 2014-2040, US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
average person trip length (miles), 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
average vehicle trip length (miles, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
avg annual PMT/household by purpose, 1983-2009, Dept. of Transportation
avg annual person trips/household by purpose, 1983-2009, Dept. of Transportation
avg person trip length (miles) by purpose, 1983-2009, Dept. of Transportation
availability of household vehicles, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
vehicle prevalence by age and type, 1977-2009, Dept. of Transportation
distribution of workers by commute mode, 1969-2009, Dept. of Transportation
commute patterns by mode of transportation, 1977-2009, Dept. of Transportation
avg commute time to work, 1980-2013 & 2005-2014, Census Bureau
Chicago metro commute, 2000-2030, Alex Anas
LDV sales, 2014-2040 & 1970-2100, EIA, Thomas
Alternative-fuel cars sales, 2014-2040 & 2000-2050 EIA, Nat’l Research Council
autonomous vehicle sales, -2035 & 2014-2036 & -2040 IHS, BCG, Jiang, IEEE
autonomous vehicle dev timeline, 2015-2030, PwC

Findings

General

The Department of Transportation has been collecting data about daily personal travel patterns via two different, periodic surveys going back to 1969. Subsequent survey years have been: 1977, 1983, 1990, 1995, 2001, 2009, and 2016 (underway).

Abstract:

The 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) provides data to characterize daily personal travel patterns across the country.
The survey includes demographic data on households, vehicles, people, and detailed information on daily travel by all modes of
transportation. NHTS survey data is collected from a sample of households and expanded to provide national estimates of trips and
miles of travel by travel mode, trip purpose, and other household attributes. When combined with historical data from the 1969, 1977,
1983,1990, and 1995 NPTS and the 2001 NHTS, the 2009 NHTS serves as a rich source of detailed travel data over time for users.
This document highlights travel trends and commuting patterns in eight key areas – summary of travel and demographics, household
travel, person travel, private vehicle travel, vehicle availability and usage, commute travel patterns, temporal distribution, and special
populations.

NHTS-table2-major-travel-indicators-1969-2009

NHTS-table3-summary-travel-stats-1969-2009

NHTS-table5-avg-annual-miles-trips-length-by-purpose-1983-2009

NHTS-table17-households-by-vehicle-availability-1969-2009

NHTS-table20-vehicle-count-age-by-type-1977-2009

NHTS-table25-workers-by-commute-mode-1969-2009

NHTS-table27-commute-patterns-by-mode-1977-2009

src:
A. Santos, et al. 2011.
Summary Of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel
Survey.

U.S. Department of Transportation.

NOTE: 2016 SURVEY IS UNDERWAY

Commute

The Census Bureau (in addition to the Dept. of Transportation) has asked survey questions about daily travel patterns going back to 1980 (and back to 1960 for a couple of very specific questions). Questions have been asked during the decennial census (since 1980, maybe 1960), and during the “American Community Survey” (going back to 2005).

Census-commute-time-1980-2013

src:
Beth Jarosz and Rachel T. Cortes. September 2014.
In U.S., New Data Show Longer, More Sedentary Commutes.
Population Reference Bureau.

citing:
U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and American Community Survey 2013.

Mean Travel Time to Work (minutes)
2005 – 25.1
2006 – 25.0
2007 – 25.3
2008 – 25.5
2009 – 25.1
2010 – 25.3
2011 – 25.5
2012 – 25.7
2013 – 25.8
2014 – 26.0

src:
United States Census Bureau. 2005-2014.
“American Community Survey.” Table S0802: Means of Transportation to Work by Selected Characteristics.
links above

*

This article presents data and extrapolations explaining why urban commute times have not increased more dramatically, despite decades of urban sprawl.

One study (Alex Anas, SUNY Buffalo) extrapolates commute times for the Chicago metro area from 2000 to 2030. In that time, there is a 24% jump in population, leading to 19% more urbanized land (sprawl), but only a 4.5% rise in commute time (from 30 minutes to 31.7 minutes).

Another study (MIT Senseable City Lab) examines cell phone data to track commutes around the world. The study finds travel time, on average across the world, to be largely independent of distance.

The article says that these studies seems to support the theory of “travel time budgets,” developed first by Yacov Zahavi and further by Cesar Marchetti (that travel budgets have averaged about an hour throughout history, and across the world). Both studies seem to support the idea that people adapt their lifestyles to accommodate an average travel time budget, whether by changing mode of transportation (e.g.: switching to public transportation), moving closer to their jobs, or reducing trips that aren’t commutes.

src:
Eric Jaffe. June 2014.
Why Commute Times Don’t Change Much Even as a City Grows.
The Atlantic: CityLab

More information about Anas’ extrapolation model, which includes several complex indicators, can be found on this page at his personal website:
The RELU-TRAN Model and its applications

TO-DO: ANAS’ MODEL MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING APPLIED TO LOS ANGELES AND OTHER METROS. INQUIRE ABOUT GENERALIZATION TO THE US.

Total Vehicle Miles Traveled

The new report’s 30-year estimates predict even less rapid growth in driving, forecasting that total driving miles will increase only 0.75 percent annually from 2012 to 2042. With population growth estimated to average 0.7 percent each year, this leaves per-person driving miles essentially flat. “This represents a significant slowdown from the growth in total VMT experienced over the past 30 years, which averaged 2.08% annually,” says the report.

FrontierGroup-DOT_forecasts-1994-2032

src:
Phineas Baxandall. January 2015.
The Feds Quietly Acknowledge the Driving Boom Is Over.
StreesBlogUSA.

citing:
Federal Highway Administration. May 2014.
FHWA Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): May 2014.
and:
U.S. PIRG/Frontier Group (graphic src)

*

The Federal Highway Administration’s spring 2016 forecast revises the growth outlook even further downward.

Excerpt:
Growth in total VMT by all vehicle types is projected to average 0.92% annually over the next 20 years (2014-2034). Over the entire 30-year forecast period (2014-2044) the average annual growth rate is projected to be 0.61% annually, as growth is projected to slow to 0.30% annually during the last decade (2034-2044). This outlook represents a significant slowdown from the growth experienced over the past 30 years, when growth in total VMT averaged 2% annually, although more detailed analysis shows that growth in overall motor vehicle travel per Capita was already slowing throughout most of that period.

[Emphasis mine]

src:
Federal Highway Administration. May 2016.
FHWA Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): Spring 2016.
Department of Transportation.

*

Transportation: Travel Indicators: Light-Duty Vehicles = 8,500 lbs

EIA-LDV-2014-2040

Visit the source URL for data (many export options).

src:
US Energy Information Administration. 2016.
Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Transportation Sector
Table: Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption by Technology Type and Fuel Type

NOTE: ONLY THE DATA TABLES ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE. THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND OTHER NARRATIVE PARTS OF THE REPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE AFTER JULY 21, 2016. CHECK BACK HERE.

*

The National Hydrogen Association created a few projections of US Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) between 2007 and 2012. Their model performs a linear extrapolation from the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2012, which projects VMT through 2023. Their extrapolation goes through the end of the 21st century. (Results are published at the lead author’s website, “Alternative Vehicles”.)

NHA-VMT-1970-2100

src:
C.E. Thomas. 2013.
LDV VMT & Sales.” Alternative Vehicles.
contact: thomas@cleancaroptions.com, faq@cleancaroptions.com

TO DO: CONTACT DR. C.E. (SANDY) THOMAS TO ASK IF THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPDATE.

LDV Sales Projection

Light-Duty Vehicle Sales: Total Sales, Cars and Light Trucks
EIA-total-vehicle-sales-by-fuel-type-2014-2040

Light-Duty Vehicle Sales: Percent Alternative Cars
EIA-pcnt-alternative-car-sales-2014-2040

Light-Duty Vehicle Sales: Alternative-Fuel Cars
EIA-alternative-fuel-cars-sales-2014-2040

Visit the source URL for data (many export options).

src:
US Energy Information Administration. 2016.
Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Transportation Sector
Table: Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption by Technology Type and Fuel Type

*

NHA-LDV_Sales-1970-2100

src:
C.E. Thomas. 2013.
LDV VMT & Sales.” Alternative Vehicles.
contact: thomas@cleancaroptions.com, faq@cleancaroptions.com

TO DO: CONTACT DR. C.E. (SANDY) THOMAS TO ASK IF THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPDATE.

*

5.3.1 Baseline Cases

Excerpt:
In the [business as usual] case, new-vehicle sales increase to 22.2 million in 2050 from 10.8 million units in 2010 (a year in which sales were severely depressed due to the recession). Diesel, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid vehicles make modest gains in market share (Figure 5.1). The total stock of LDVs increases from about 220 million in 2010 to 365 million in 2050.

NAP-BAU-LDVs-2000-2050
FIGURE 5.1 Vehicle sales by vehicle technology for the business as usual scenario.

FCEVs: fuel cell electric vehicles
BEVs: battery electric vehicles
PHEVs: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
HEVs: hybrid electric vehicles
ICEs: internal combustion engines

Note: In this model total new car sales and annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are assumed to be the same as in the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011

src:
National Research Council. 2013.
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels.
Chapter: 5 Modeling the Transition to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels.
The National Academies Press.

Autonomous Vehicle Sales

IHS forecasts 76 million autonomous vehicles will have been sold globally through 2035, with 21 million of those being sold that year.

“The U.S. market is expected to see the earliest deployment of autonomous vehicles as it works through challenges posed by regulation, liability and consumer acceptance. Deployment in the U.S. will begin with several thousand autonomous vehicles sold in 2020, which will grow to nearly 4.5 million vehicles sold in 2035, according to IHS Automotive forecasts. As in many other markets, a variety of use cases and business models are expected to develop around consumer demand for personal mobility.”

IHS expects a global CAGR of 43% between 2025 and 2035.

src:
IHS. June 2016.
CORRECTING and REPLACING IHS Clarifies Autonomous Vehicle Sales Forecast – Expects 21 Million Sales Globally in the Year 2035 and Nearly 76 Million Sold Globally Through 2035.
contacts:
Michelle Culver michelle.culver@ihs.com
press@ihs.com

TO DO: ASK IF THEY CAN SHARE ANNUAL DATA POINTS.

*

“In 2035, AV sales will account for 25% of the market.”

BCG-autonomous-vehicle-global-market-penetration-2015-2035

src:
Boston Consulting Group. April 2015.
Revolution in the Driver’s Seat.
P.18

Note: The report uses expectations for the U.S. as an accurate proxy for the global market-penetration. This is based on adoption rates in the U.S. for adaptive cruise control being in line with overall global adoption.

*

Cars sold globally 2014-2036

2014 – total 90M+, autonomous or self-driving 15M+
2030 – 50% autonomous or self-driving

Jiang-car-sales-by-region-2014-2036

Jiang-car-sales-2014-2036

src:
Tao Jiang et al. 2015
Self-Driving Cars: Disruptive or Incremental?
Applied Innovation Review, 1. P.6

NOTE: The authors are from Google, Samsung, Yahoo, and Altera, but the data above is not sourced.

TO DO: CONFIRM SOURCES FOR ABOVE DATA. (HAVEN’T BEEN ABLE TO FIND EMAIL ADDRESSES FOR ANY OF THE AUTHORS – MIGHT HAVE TO REACH OUT VIA LINKEDIN, OR THE JOURNAL’S EDITORS.)

*

In 2012, IEEE said that it expected autonomous vehicles to account for up to 75% of cars on the road (globally) by 2040.

TO DO: TRACE THE SOURCE. POSSIBLY ALBERTO BROGGI, UNIV. PARMA, ITALY.

src:
IEEE. September 2012.
Look Ma, No Hands!
IEEE News Releases

Autonomous Vehicle Development Timeline

Exhibit 7: Possible time line of autonomous car innovation

PWC-Exhibit007-development-timeline-2015-2030

src:
Richard Viereckl et al. September 2015.
Connected Car Study 2015: Racing ahead with autonomous cars and digital innovation.
Strategy&. PwC.

NOTE: Although this paper is focused on the European Union, I believe this timeline is general to the industry as a whole.

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Posted by Claudia Lamar on July 14, 2016 at 10:04 pm | comment count



Food


This collection of data includes the following indicators:
Crop Acreage, 2014-2025, USDA
Meat Production, 1990-2025, USDA
Meat Consumption, 1909-2013; 1990-2025, USDA
Meat Imports and Exports, 2014-2025, USDA
Organic Food Market CAGR 2015-2020, TechSci
Organic Food Sales, 1994-2014; 2006-2015, USDA; Organic Trade Association (OTA)
Organic Food Acreage, 2003-2014; 2008-2014; 1992-2011, OTA; USDA
Organic Acreage as a % of Total, 1995-2050, Steve Savage
Organic Food Premiums, 2004-2010, Nielsen/USDA
Genetically Engineered Corn and Soy, 2001-2015, USDA
Farmers’ Markets, 1994-2015, USDA
CSA Growth, 1980-2010, LocalHarvest
Food-Miles, 1969, 1980, 2001, [various sources]
Farms By Size, 2002-2012, USDA
Grocery Delivery Services, 2014 & 2023, Bricks Meets Clicks
Income Spent on Food, 1970-2007, USDA
% of Food Purchased Away from Home, 1970-2012, USDA
Total Spending on Dining Out v. Groceries, 1992-2015, Commerce Dept.
% of Dinners Eaten at Home and Made at Home, 1974-2014, NPD Group
Food at Home v. Away By Income, 1956-2008, Smith
Time Spent Cooking, 1965-2008, Smith

Crop Acreage

The USDA has published a report of 10-year agricultural projections annually at least since 2005. The reports are a business-as-usual projection for crops, livestock, farm income, and agricultural trade. Excerpted below are projections for crop acreage.

Includes the following macroeconomic assumptions (annual projections)
GDP
Disposable personal income
Personal consumption expenditures
Labor compensation per hour
Civilian unemployment rate
Nonfarm payroll employees
Total population
(p.16)

USDA-macroeconomic-assumptions-2014-2025

Excerpts:

Over the long run, steady global economic growth provides a foundation for increasing crop demand, with gains in world consumption and trade. Although crop prices are projected to be below recent records, they remain above pre-2007 levels. U.S. plantings for the eight major crops continue to fall during the second half of the projection period, to about 244 million acres by 2025. Corn and soybeans decrease the most. Increasing yields provide most of the gains in U.S. production.

USDA-US-planted-area-1990-2025

Farm programs of the Agricultural Act of 2014 are assumed to be extended through the projection period. Acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is assumed at levels slightly below the legislated maximum of 24 million acres.

USDA-Conservation-reserve-program-acreage-1990-2025

USDA-acreage-major-crops-and-CRP-2014-2025

src:
Paul Westcott and James Hansen, February 2016.
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025
p.19, 28
contact: westcott@ers.usda.gov, jhansen@ers.usda.gov

Meat Production/Consuption

The USDA produces a 10-year forecast for many agricultural indicators, including meat production and consumption.

Excerpts:

The U.S. livestock sector is projected to increase production over the next decade, an expansion that reflects several factors. Feed costs have fallen from recent highs and are projected to rise only moderately over the next 10 years. Also, demand for meats and dairy products in both the domestic market and for export is projected to be strong. As a result, total U.S. red meat and poultry production rises over the projection period. Milk production also increases over the next decade.

USDA-meat-production-1990-2025

As production increases, consumption of red meats and poultry is projected to rise from about 211 pounds per person in 2015 to about 219 pounds toward the end of the projection period. Although this level consumption is below those in 2004-07 of more than 221 pounds per person, it represents a rebound from a low of 202 pounds per person in 2014.
commerce-dept-total-spending-food-away-groceries-1992-2015

USDA-meat-consumption-1990-2025

USDA-per-capita-meat-consumption-2014-2025

USDA-beef-long-term-projections-2014-2025

USDA-pork-long-term-projections-2014-2025

USDA-young-chickens-long-term-projections-2014-2025

USDA-turkey-long-term-projections-2014-2025

USDA-egg-long-term-projections-2014-2025

USDA-dairy-long-term-projections-2014-2025

USDA-import-export-long-term-projections

src:
Paul Westcott and James Hansen, February 2016.
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025
p.39, 40, 44-47, 83-92
contact: westcott@ers.usda.gov, jhansen@ers.usda.gov

*

The USDA collects data on food and nutrient availability for consumption, which they describe as proxies for actual consumption at the national level.

Red Meat, Poultry, and Fish
1909-2013, pounds available/consumed per year, broken down by type of meat

Also available in the following Google Sheet.
original source file

src:
USDA Economic Research Service. Accessed June 6, 2016.
Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.

Organic Food

Research firm TechSci forecasts that the global organic food market will have a CAGR over 16% during 2015-2020.

src:
TechSci Research. 2015.
Global Organic Food Market Forecast & Opportunities, 2020.
via [PR Newswire]

Media Contact: Ken Mathews ken.mathews@techsciresearch.com

Previous forecasts had estimated the US CAGR for 2013-2018 to be 14%.

EMAILED THE FIRM 6/21 TO SEE IF THEY CAN SHARE THE MOST RECENT US FIGURES

UPDATE: Karan Chechi, Research Director with TechSci Research, confirms by email that the US market will have a CAGR of 16.27% during 2015-2020.

src:
Email correspondence via Kalpana Verma, June 23, 2016
citing Karan Chechi

*

The Organic Trade Association conducts an annual survey describing the previous year’s organic food sales. In 2015, organic food sales were up 11% over the previous year (the overall food market’s growth was just 3%). Nearly 5% of all the food sold in the US in 2015 was organic.

OTA-organics-sales-2006-2015

Organic fruits and vegetables remain the largest of all the major organic categories, with sales up 10.5%. Almost 13% of the produce sold in the US is now organic.

OTA also reports short-comings in the organics supply chain. Although organic food sales make up nearly five percent of total food sales, acreage devoted to organic agriculture is less than one percent of total U.S. cropland.

OTA-organic-acreage-vs-food-sales-2003-2014

src:
Organic Trade Association. May 19, 2016.
U.S. organic sales post new record of $43.3 billion in 2015.
and
U.S. Organic State of the Industry.” Accessed June 21, 2016.

Media Contact: Maggie McNeil, mmcneil@ota.com

In previous years, the OTA has given very short forecasts for growth.

EMAILED 6/21 TO INQUIRE ABOUT RECENT FORECASTS, AND REQUESTING A COPY OF THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.
UPDATE: NO OFFICIAL FORECASTS, BUT THEY EXPECT GROWTH TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

*

U.S. sales of organic products were an estimated $28.4 billion in 2012—over 4 percent of total food sales—and will reach an estimated $35 billion in 2014, according to the Nutrition Business Journal.

The number of farmers’ markets in the United States has grown steadily from 1,755 markets in 1994, when USDA began to track them, to over 8,144 in 2013

src:
USDA. May 2016.
Organic Market Overview.

Contact: Catherine Greene, cgreene@ers.usda.gov

http://www.ers.usda.gov/ers-staff-directory/catherine-greene.aspx

*

USDA-organic-food-sales-and-growth-1994-2014

USDA-monthly-nonGMO-products-2010-2014

src:
Catherine Greene, et al. February 2016.
Economic Issues in the Coexistence of Organic, Genetically Engineered (GE), and Non-GE Crops.” Report EIB-149.
Economic Research Service/USDA
p.8, 10

*

Nielsen Homescan data is an annual, nationally representative panel of households’ retail food purchases. USDA organic food certification began in 2002, and Nielsen started tracking whether a product was organic in 2004. USDA’s Economic Research Service conducted a study using the Nielsen data from 2004 through 2010 to compare sales data over the period. Each product tracked was ranked by percent of organic sales, percent of organic purchase quantity, and percent of organic transactions (Table 1).

USDA-organic-eggs-sales-table-2004-2010

The study also calculated price premiums for organic products (Table 2).

USDA-organic-eggs-price-premiums-table-2004-2010

USDA-organic-eggs-price-premiums-chart-2004-2010

USDA-organic-spinach-price-premiums-chart-2004-2010

USDA-organic-vegs-price-premiums-chart-2004-2010

USDA-organic-beans-coffee-price-premiums-chart-2004-2010

USDA-organic-soup-price-premiums-chart-2004-2010

Products tracked include eggs and dairy, fruits and vegetables, single-ingredient processed foods (eg: canned beans, coffee), multi-ingredient processed food (eg: bread), and baby food. Only products with UPCs were tracked (no premium meat and poultry were tracked).

src:
Andrea Carlson and Edward C. Jaenicke. May 2016.
Changes in Retail Organic Price Premiums from 2004 to 2010.
Economic Research Report No. ERR-209. USDA.
Summary and Appendix tables available here.

TO-DO: EXTRACT DATA FROM PAPER, AND/OR CONTACT NIELSEN TO SEE IF WE CAN GET POST-2010 DATA.

*

USDA NASS Organic Production Survey

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has conducted three surveys of organic agricultural production in the US, first in 2008, then 2011, then 2014. Some data on organics production were also gathered as part of the 2012 Agricultural Census.

Organic Land Acres
2008: 4,077,337
2011: 3,648,896
2014: 3,670,560

Market Value of Organic Agricultural Products Sold
Year — Value of Crops sold (B) — Value of Livestock Poultry and Products Sold — Total Value of Ag Products Sold
2008 — 2.0 — 1.2 — 3.2
2011 — 2.2 — 1.3 – 3.5
2012 — N/A — N/A — 3.1
2014 — 3.3 — 2.2 — 5.5

src:
USDA NASS. September 17, 2015.
Data Release: 2014 Organic Survey.
Contact: Adam Cline, adam.cline@nass.usda.gov

*

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) has collected some historic data describing the extent of organic farmland acreage and livestock in the US. Data is available 1992-2011, and imported to the following Google Sheet:

src:
USDA ERS. Accessed June 2016.
Organic Production — Overview

Table 2: U.S. certified organic farmland acreage, livestock numbers, and farm operations [XLS]
contact: Catherine Greene, cgreene@ers.usda.gov

*

sustainablog-Organic-Percent-Trend-1995-2050

In fact, all those Organic acres put together still only represent 0.71% of the 370 million acres of US cropland. The amount of that cropland that was actually harvested in 2008 represented only 0.52% of the total. Organic cropland area has been growing, but only at 0.0385% per year on an absolute basis (see chart below). At that rate of growth, US Organic cropland will still represent less than 2.5% of the total in the year 2050. The math suggests that Organic will remain as a small niche market.

src: Steve Savage. August 2011.
Why Does Organic Seem Larger Than It Is?
contact: savage.sd@gmail.com
citing: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS data

NOTE: Per his bio (last slide), Steve Savage is an independent agricultural technology consultant. He does NOT see organics as a viable solution for the overall sustainability and production challenges faced on a global level.

Genetically Engineered Crops

GE corn and soybeans are grown on more acres than any another crop in the United States. GE varieties of corn and soybeans were commercialized in 1996. By 2001, a quarter of the U.S. corn crop and over two-thirds of the soybean crop were planted with GE seed (fig. 3). In 2015, U.S. producers planted 89 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans with GE seed, accounting for 92 and 94 percent of the total planted acres for these crops (USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2015a) (fig. 3). One of the major uses of these crops is for animal feed, but they are also used to produce vegetable oil and as ingredients in many processed foods. A substantial amount of the corn crop—44 percent in 2015—is now used to produce alcohol for fuel use (USDA-ERS, 2015a).

USDA-GE-corn-soy-crops-2001-2015

src:
Catherine Greene, et al. February 2016.
Economic Issues in the Coexistence of Organic, Genetically Engineered (GE), and Non-GE Crops.” Report EIB-149.
Economic Research Service/USDA
p.11

Farmer’s Markets

The USDA has maintained a registry of farmers markets at least since 1994.

USDA-FarmersMarketDirectoryListing-1994-2015

src:
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. Accessed June 24, 2016.
Linked via “Farmers Markets and Direct-to-Consumer Marketing.
JPG src

*

8,268 farmers’ markets operating in 2014, up 180 percent since 2006. Martinez et al. (2010)

In 2012, 7.8 percent of U.S. farms sold food through local food marketing channels, including direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing channels (e.g., farmers’ markets, roadside stands, u-pick) and intermediated marketing channels (e.g., direct to restaurants, institutions or to regional food aggregators).

Regional food hubs are enterprises that aggregate locally sourced food to meet wholesale, retail, institutional and even individual demand (see box, “Regional Food Hubs”). Since 2006-07, the number of food hubs has increased by 288 percent (fig. 1).

Farm to school programs have multiple objectives, ranging from nutrition education to serving locally sourced food in school meals. According to the USDA Farm to School Census, 4,322 school districts have farm to school programs, a 430-percent increase since 2006 (fig. 1).

src:
USDA. January 2015.
Trends in U.S. Local and Regional Food Systems.

*

TO-DO: LOOK INTO THE Food Marketing Institute (2011 Trends survey)

Community Supported Agriculture

LocalHarvest-csa-growth-1980-2010

2010 Stats that might be available as series:
3,229 CSAs listed with LocalHarvest
the average sized CSA in the U.S. has 96 members
the median is 47
total number of shares offered by our CSAs is about 390,000

“If the number of CSAs keeps growing at the same rate as CSAs have been joining our site over the last three years, by 2020, there will be over 18,000 CSAs in the U.S.”

EMAILED LOCAL HARVEST 6/24/16 TO INQUIRE ABOUT ANNUAL TALLIES AND RECENT FIGURES.
Guillermo Payet, President of LocalHarvest
gpayet@localharvest.org

src:
LocalHarvest, January 2010.
LocalHarvest Newsletter, January 28, 2010
image URL

*

Data collected in 2012 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that 12,617 farms in the United States reported marketing products through a community supported agriculture (CSA) arrangement, a .5 percent increase over the 12,549 farms marketing through CSAs in 2007.

2012
Table 43. Selected Practices: 2012. In 2012 Census of Agriculture – State Data. p. 558. (2014) U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
See the column titled, “Marketed products through Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) (farms)” to find the number of farms that answered yes to the question, “At any time during 2012, did this operation market products through a community supported agriculture (CSA) arrangement?”
See also: 2012 Agricultural Census Home page

2007
Table 44. Selected Practices: 2007. In 2007 Census of Agriculture – State Data. p. 606. (2009) U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
See the column titled, “Marketed products through Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) (farms)” to find the number of farms that answered yes to the question, “At any time during 2007, did this operation market products through a community supported agriculture (CSA) arrangement?”
See also: 2007 Agricultural Census Home page

src:
AFSIC staff. April 2016.
Community Supported Agriculture: Surveys and Statistics.
USDA National Agricultural Library. Alternative Farming Systems Information Center.

*

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service maintains several local food directories, including one for CSAs.

For questions about the Local Food Directories, please contact:
Edward Ragland, Economist
directoryupdates@ams.usda.gov
202.690.1327

EMAILED EDWARD RAGLAND 6/24/16 TO INQUIRE ABOUT HISTORIC STATISTICS.

src:
Local Food Directories
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. Accessed June 24, 2016.

Food Miles

CC NOTES: HAVING TROUBLE FINDING GOOD TIME SERIES DATA ON THIS. THE SOURCES BELOW CITE DATA FROM INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS (MOSTLY IOWA). HAVEN’T FOUND ANY NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE TIME SERIES AVERAGES.

TO-DO: WRITE TO SOMEONE AT THE LEOPOLD CENTER TO INQUIRE ABOUT ANY NATIONAL TIME SERIES DATA.

EMAILED RICH PIROG (NOW AT MSU) 6/24/16.

Several surveys from different wholesale markets in the United States show that fruits and vegetables are traveling between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometers from farm to market, an increase of roughly 20 percent in the last two decades.

src:
Brain Halweil. 2002.
Home Grown: The Case for Local Food in a Global Market.
Worldwatch Paper 163. Worldwatch Institute.

citing:
United States surveys from Hora and Tick, op. cit. note 2, and Rich
Pirog et al., “Food, Fuel, and Freeways: An Iowa Perspective on How Far Food Travels, Fuel Usage, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions” (Ames, Iowa: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Iowa State University, 2001), pp. 1, 2

*

A food mile is the distance food travels from where it is grown or raised to where it is ultimately purchased by the consumer or other end-user. One 1969 estimate of miles traveled by food in the United States cited an average distance of 1,346 miles (47). Calculations
made by John Hendrickson using a 1980 study examining transportation and fuel requirements estimated that fresh produce in the United States traveled an estimated 1,500 miles (48). Fresh produce arriving in Austin, Texas, was estimated to travel an average of 1,129 miles (49). An analysis of the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service’s
1997 arrival data from the Jessup, Maryland, terminal market found that the average pound of produce distributed at the facility traveled more than 1,685 miles (50). This same study showed the average distance for fruits to be transported was 2,146 miles, while
the average for vegetables was 1,596 miles (51).

src:
Rich Pirog, et al. 2001.
Food, Fuel, and Freeways: An Iowa perspective on how far food travels, fuel usage, and greenhouse gas emissions.
Leopold Center. Iowa State University.
p.9
contact: rspirog@iastate.edu

citing:
47: U.S. Department of Defense. 1969. U.S. Agriculture: Potential Vulnerabilities. Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, CA.
48: Hendrickson, John. 1996. “Energy use in the U.S. Food System: A Summary of existing research and analysis.” Sustainable Farming-REAP-Canada. Ste. Anne-de’Bellevue, Quebec. Vol 7, No 4. Fall 1997.
49: ibid.
50: Hora, Matthew, and Jody Tick. 2001. “From Farm to Table: Making the Connection in the Mid-Atlantic Food System.” Capital Area Food Bank of Washington D.C. report.

*

Recent studies have shown that this distance has been steadily increasing over the last fifty years. Studies estimate that processed food in the United States travels over 1,300 miles, and fresh produce travels over 1,500 miles, before being consumed.

src:
Holly Hill. 2008.
Food Miles: Background and Marketing.

also citing:
The Leopold Center, Iowa State University (a 1998 study looking at the distance that 30 convention fresh produce items traveled to reach the Chicago Terminal Market).

and citing:
statistics on the volume of world agricultural trade going back to 1961

Farm Size and Diversity

USDA-farms-by-size-2002-2012

USDA-total-and-avg-farm-land-1982-2012

USDA-farms-by-size-1982-2012

USDA-farm-acres-harvested-use-2007-2012

TO-DO: LOOK INTO OLDER AG CENSUSES FOR FARMS-BY-SIZE DATA

src:
USDA. May 2014.
2012 Census of Agriculture.

Grocery Delivery Services

Brick Meets Click forecasts that online grocery spending in the US will reach between 11% and 17% in most markets by 2023. Up from 4% in 2014.

src:
Bill Bishop. October 2014.
What’s ahead for online grocery? Updated growth forecast & implications?” Slide 2. Brick Meets Click.

NOTE: Brick Meets Click is a research and consulting firm that tracks online grocery sales and advises businesses on meeting this demand.

Meals at/away from home

The average U.S. consumer spent 9.8 percent of disposable personal income (income available after taxes) on all food in 2007—5.7 percent on food at home and 4.1 percent on food away from home. The percentage of disposable income spent on all food, food at home, and food away from home remained constant from 2005 to 2007.

USDA-income-spent-on-food-1970-2007

src:
Annette Clauson. September 2008.
Despite Higher Food Prices, Percent of U.S. Income Spent on Food Remains Constant.
USDA Economic Research Service.

*

Food purchased away from home as a share of household food expenses

USDA-percent-of-food-away-1970-2012

Chart Data available in the following Google Sheet.

Original chart data source

src:
Economic Research Service. Accessed June 6, 2016.
Food-Away-from-Home
US Department of Agriculture, Food Expenditures.

*

Spending on dining out vs. grocery store purchases (total in the US, NOT per capita)

commerce-dept-total-spending-food-away-groceries-1992-2015

src:
Michelle Jamrisko. April 14, 2015.
Americans’ Spending on Dining Out Just Overtook Grocery Sales for the First Time Ever.
Bloomberg

citing:
Commerce Department

*

The percentage of dinners eaten at home that were actually made at home in the U.S.

NPD-dinners-cooked-at-home-1974-2014

NOTE: No/few numeric values in this article.
TO-DO: CONTACT NPD FOR THE ACTUAL YEARLY VALUES

src:
NPD Group
via:
Roberto A. Ferdman. March 5, 2015.
The Slow Death Of The Home-Cooked Meal.
The Washington Post

*

Daily energy intake of US adults by food source, 1965-1966 to 2007-2008
Smith-et-al-food-home-away-by-income-1956-2008
Figure 1

Trends in Time Spent Cooking for US adults from 1965–1966 to 2007-2008
Smith-et-al-time-spent-cooking-1965-2008
Table 2

src:
Lindsey P. Smith, et al. 2013.
Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008.
Nutrition Journal, 12(45).

citing the following data sources for Figure 1:
Household Food Consumption Survey (HFCS) of 1965–1966 (n=4,114), Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (NFCS) of 1977–1978 (n=12,935), Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) of 1989–1991 (n=7,750), CSFII of 1994–1996 (n=6,894), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) of 2003–2004 (n=3,138), and NHANES of 2007–2008 (n=3,734).

data sources for Table 2:
Multinational Comparative Time-Budget Research Project (MCTRP) of 1965–1966 (n=1,888), American’s Use of Time Project (AUTP) of 1975–1976 (n=3,190), AUTP of 1985–1986 (n=2,391), National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS) of 1992–1994 and National Time Diary Study (NTDS) of 1994–1995 (n=6,291), American Time Use Study (ATUS) of 2003–2004 (n=24,382), and ATUS of 2007–2008 (n=17,282). Percentages and mean time spent cooking are adjusted to be nationally representative.

Tags: , , ,

Posted by Claudia Lamar on July 13, 2016 at 9:29 pm | comment count



Homes: Space Use, Moves, Bandwidth


The following indicators describe how people use the space in their homes, how frequently they move, and how internet-connected households are.

Descriptions of the way people use the space in their homes are largely qualitative and general. Some historical surveys describe general differences in home design and space use from one historic period to another, but these surveys are not quantitative. In the early 20th century, there were a few time-use and space-use studies conducted by home economists, but I’ve not seen a single source that aggregates the data from different geographic zones, and I’m not aware of any contemporary surveys. These early 20th-century studies, which mostly focused on kitchens, informed the development of minimum standards, which continued to evolve into the middle and later part of the century. Again, I’ve found single instances of minimum standard recommendations, but no historical quantitative comparisons of how the standards have evolved. I’ve come across one 10-year and one 20-year outlook describing general changes in housing plans, which may be on-going.

Historic fixed-line broadband subscriptions are available from the UN’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 2000-2014. Pew surveys going back to 2000 show that home broadband adoption has plateaued between 2013 and 2015. A 2009 Technology Futures broadband forecast to 2020 also shows predicts plateauing starting from about 2015. Cisco has published a four-year forecast of broadband speeds to 2019.

The US Census Bureau estimated the number of times a typical American will move in 2007. FiveThirtyEight updated that estimate in 2013. It may be possible to calculate this figure for previous years using older Census data. Historic estimates of the number of people moving each year are available from the Census going back to 1948.

Use of Rooms/Space

Moya K. Mason. 2009.
Housing: Then, Now, and Future
(date inferred via Internet Archive)
This is a general overview describing changes in the size and utilization of residential spaces, from the 18th century to present. The author has also collected excerpts from their sources here.

Ebby Halliday, REALTORS. 2009.
Residential Housing 2030 and Beyond
This is an outline of a focus group conversation among 25-to-40-year-olds discussing their present housing needs, and anticipated needs in the next 20 years. Very rough notes. Appears to be a consensus for smaller square footage of homes with larger, multi-purpose rooms, and larger back yards. This document was presented at the 2009 conference “North Texas Alternative Futures” in Irving, Texas, an on-going series sponsored by the Urban Land Institute.

Residential: Embracing New Lifestyles
Section in 2016 Gensler Design Forecast — Lifestyle
Gensler is a global architecture, design, and planning firm.
10-year outlook for trends in residential building. Brief, and highly qualitative. Communal housing (cohousing), with shared amenities, will become acceptable to post-college adults, single parents, and the elderly. Changes in work style and lifestyle will increase the need for part-time housing. Mixed-use developments will increasingly include housing. “Uburbs,” midway between the city and suburbs, are an emerging residential market.
TO-DO: CONTACT GENSLER TO INQUIRE IF THIS IS AN ON-GOING FORECAST, AND THE DATE OF THE OLDEST.

*

EMAILED ARTHUR C. NELSON
Professor of Urban Planning and Real Estate Development, Univ. Arizona
HE WAS INTERESTED IN THE TOPIC, BUT NOT AWARE OF ANY SOURCES

*

Other possible sources:

The American Institute of Architects

Virginia Tech College of Architecture & Urban Studies

Georgia Institute of Technology College of Architecture

Design Futures Council (DFC)

American Society of Interior Designers
contact:
David Krantz
Vice President, Research and Knowledge Management
dkrantz@asid.org
EMAILED 6/1 – REPLIED SAYING NO IMMEDIATE LEADS, BUT HE’LL LOOK INTO IT

Interior Design Society

Designer Society of America

Certified Interior Decorators

University of Illinois Small Homes Council-Building Research Council

US Minimum Property Standards

Best Interior Design Graduate Schools, Design Intelligence
(DFC)
Savannah College of Art and Design
Pratt Institute
Rhode Island School of Design
EMAILED LILIANE WONG 6/2, HEAD OF THE INTERIOR ARCH DEPT
Kansas State University
New York School of Interior Design

Best Architecture Graduate Schools, Design Intelligence
(DFC)
Harvard Univ
Cornell Univ
EMAILED KATHLEEN GIBSON 6/2, WHO MAINTAINS THEIR INTYPES DATABASE
SHE’S ON SABATICAL THROUGH 2017
EMAILED JAN JENNINGS 6/2, WHO FOUNDED THE INTYPES DB
SHE HAS NO SUGGESTIONS
Yale Univ
Columbia Univ
MIT
UC Berkeley
EMAILED PAUL GROTH 6/2
HE RECOMMENDS ASKING Richard Longstreth (GWU) AND URBAN LAND INST
TO-DO: FOLLOW UP WITH THESE LEADS
U. Michigan
Rice Univ.
Virginia Tech
EMAILED KATHLEEN PARROTT 6/1
Washington Univ. St. Louis

*

Interior Designer Jobs
Number of Jobs, 2014 — 58,900
Job Outlook, 2014-24 — 4% (Slower than average [which is about 7%])
Employment Change, 2014-24 — 2,200
src:
Interior Designers.” 2014. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2016-17 Edition.

Note: This 4% growth is a significant slowing from the BLS’s 2010 estimate of 19% job growth from 2010 to 2020 [average at the time].
Number of Jobs, 2010 — 56,500
src:
Interior Designers.” 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2012-13 Edition. Via Internet Archive.

*

Virginia Tech conducted survey-based research in 2000 examining what people do in their kitchens, they have in them, what kind of cooks they are, and what they want from their kitchens.

I don’t think the survey has been updated, and the research summary does not contain much specific historic information, but I’ve written to the lead author to inquire about historic data and forecasts. EMAILED 6/1.

Excerpts:

What do people do in their kitchens? What types of cooks are they? What do they have in their kitchens and how do they react to the design, layout, convenience, and function of their existing kitchens? And perhaps most importantly, what does this tell us about how to plan and design the kitchens of the future?

In an effort to answer these questions, a multi-stage research project was developed. First, a content analysis of shelter, design, and kitchen magazines investigated current trends and features of kitchen design. Then a local sample of over 75 cooks was brought to the Center for Real Life Kitchen Design at Virginia Tech. These cooks were interviewed about their home kitchens and how they used them. The cooks were measured and then videotaped cooking a meal. Finally, a national telephone survey with 630 respondents gathered broad information about kitchens and cooks from around the country.

Household Characteristics
Who participated in the research project? The local and national samples were similar in their demographic make-up. In addition:

*A majority of the respondents in both samples (over 90%) were from households of fewer than four people. The most common types of households were a family or adult couple (approximately 1/3 each).
*Both samples included more females than males, within a wide variety of age and income brackets.
*Approximately 75% of each sample lived in single-family residences they owned. There was not a dominance of any particular age or size of residence.
*The national sample was equally divided among small town, rural, city and suburban residences.

Key conclusions from the study can be grouped into categories: what people do in their kitchens, who is cooking, how people cook, what people have in their kitchens, and what people want in their kitchens.

People have many small appliances (an average of 12 per household).
Some small appliances are stored on counter tops (four is typical).

src:
“Someone’s in the Kitchen… – A summary of the Findings of the Kitchen Space and Storage Research Projects.”
Kathleen Parrott, Ph.D., CKE
JoAnn Emmel, Ph.D.
Julia Beamish, Ph.D., CKE
Center for Real Life Kitchen Design
Department of Apparel, Housing, and Resource Management
Virginia Tech
Accessed June 1, 2016. This page was published in 2015, but the research was conducted in 2000, per this new release. The research informed a 2007 text book, Kitchen Planning, referenced below.

contact:
Kathleen Parrott — homes@vt.edu

*

One-off study from 1963 with household storage minimums (specific recommended minimums for closets, clothes closets, linen closets, kitchen storage, access, and general storage). Unable to find a contemporary equivalent.

src:
Rudard A. Jones. July 1963.
Household Storage Study.
Research Report 13-1
University Of Illinois
Small Homes Council — Building Research Council

Several other “universal design” papers and recommendations have been published throughout the 20th century (for example, [DeMerchant & Beamish, 1995]).

http://www.housingeducators.org/Journals/H%26S_Vol_22_No_1-2_Universal_Design_in_Residential_Spaces.pdf

This trend toward recommended standards began in the 1930s when home economists with USDA started systematically researching and documenting the use of time and space in homes (especially kitchens) as a way of improving rural housing conditions. Results of many early USDA time-use surveys are [available here].

https://www.nal.usda.gov/exhibits/ipd/apronsandkitchens/exhibits/show/time-use/research-tools

Some home design books include discussion of recent home design trends. For example, [Kitchen Planning (NKBA, 2013)], includes discussion of general housing trends and consumer preferences, drawing upon recent surveys by NAHB, Better Homes and Gardens, and the American Institute of Architects. This work also includes a very general description of older kitchen and work-area research studies (like the USDA’s, mentioned above). However, the discussion focuses on the current demand, and does not give detailed attention to the pace of the change. TO-DO: IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO MINE THE SURVEYS AND REPORTS REFERENCED IN NKBA 2013 FOR SPECIFIC STANDARDS FROM THE 1930S, 1950S, 1970S, 1990S, AND 2000S TO CHART THE METRIC EVOLUTION OF THE STANDARDS. THE CHAPTER DOES INCLUDE A NARRATIVE SUMMARY OF CHANGES BY DECADE FROM 1900 THROUGH THE 21ST CENTURY (MY PREVIEW TOPS OUT AFTER THE 1920S SUMMARY).

References include:
Beecher & Stowe 1869
Frederick 1913
Deane G. Carter 1932 — AES bulletin
Maud Wilson 1938 “The Willamette Valley Farm Kitchen”
Maud Wilson 1947b “Considerations in Planning Kitchen Cabients”
Heiner and McCullough 1948 “Functional Kitchen Storage”
Small Homes Council (SHC) 1949 “Cabinet Space for the Kitchen”
McCullough 1949
Heiner and Steidel 1951
Howard 1965
Kapple 1964; Wanslow 1965
Jones and Kapple 1975
Yust and Olsen 1992 “Residential Kitchens: Planning Principles for the ‘90s”
Cheever 1992 “Utensil Survey Project”
NOTE: THIS WORK FOUND THAT THE NUMBER OF ITEMS STORED IN THE KITCHEN HAD INCREASED 110% FROM THE NUMBER REPORTED IN 1948 (BY HEINER AND MCCULLOUGH).
Emmel, Beamish and Parrott 2001 “Someone’s in the Kitchen”
NAHB 2011
“New Homes in 2015 Will be Smaller, Greener and More Casual.”
Sullivan 2010
“Home Sizes Continue to Shrink.”
Better Homes and Gardens survey
Baker 2010
“Small Talk: Kitchens and Baths Do More With Less”
search for ref to AIA survey

Frequency of Moves

How many times will a typical American move in their life?

2007 – 11.7
2013 – 11.3

US Census Bureau doesn’t ask directly, but it calculates this figure based on which age groups are most likely to move in a given year and the overall composition of the US population.

src:
Mona Chalabi. January 29, 2015.
How Many Times Does The Average Person Move?
FiveThirtyEight

TO-DO: FIND/COMPUTE THIS FIGURE USING CENSUS DATA FOR PREVIOUS YEARS.
The Census Bureau describes their methodology here.

The move data comes from the American Community Survey, questions about “State-to-State Migration Flows.”

Tables are available from 2005 through 2014 at the American Factfinder portal.

Data is also available from the decennial censuses going back to 1940, links below.

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980 (page 85+)

1990-1999

2014-2015

*

census-movers-move-rate-1948-2015

Note: Slightly different from 2007 and 2013 values suggested above

census-type-of-move-1948-2015

src:
CPS Historical Migration/Geographic Mobility Tables” 2015.
US Census Bureau.
Figure A-1.1
Figure A-1.2

*

A 2014 white paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research argues that, since the 1980s, Americans are moving less because they’re changing jobs less often.

NBER-long-run-migration-decline

Using data from the Current Population Survey, US Census.

NBER-decline-in-job-transitions

Using data from National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth from the late 1970s to the late 2000s

TO-DO: CHECK IF THE ANNUAL DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NBER PAPER. THE PAPER IS FREE FOR JOURNALISTS TO DOWLOAD, BUT WE NEED TO COMPLETE REGISTRATION (PENDING AS OF 6/2).

src:
Raven Molloy, et al. April 2014.
Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
via:
Richard Florida. April 28, 2014.
Why Americans Are Moving Less: New Jobs Aren’t Worth It.
CityLab — The Atlantic

Bandwidth to Homes

U.S. Fixed-broadband subscriptions, 2000-2014

Aggregated in the following Google Sheet:

src:
ITU. 2015.
U.S. Fixed-broadband subscriptions.
via the ITU Statistics page

*

Pew finds that home broadband use has plateaued

pew-home-broadband-users-2000-2015

Pew also finds that several groups are shifting their home internet connectivity away from broadband and toward smartphones.

pew-smartphones-replacing-broadband-2013-2015

src:
Pew Research Center. December 2015.
Home Broadband 2015.

*

In 2002, Technology Futures published several forecasts of residential broadband subscriptions and speeds looking out to 2020. The base model forecast is informed by the Gompertz model, which is usually followed by major consumer adoptions.

tfi-online-and-broadband-households-forecast-1990-2020

The forecasts are notably off from the Pew and ITU reports above. However, one of the historical comparisons in the paper, to Pay Cable adoption, might help to explain the problem with their own forecast for broadband subscriptions.

tfi-consumer-adoptions-broadband-comparison

Pay Cable’s adoption figures from 1973-1981 do not follow the Gompertz model because of a disruption by VCR adoption. Home broadband subscriptions may be experiencing a similar disruption by mobile devices with internet subscriptions.

src:
Lawrence K. Vanston, et al. 2002.
Residential Broadband Forecasts.
Technology Futures Inc.
contact: lvanston@tfi.com

In 2009, Technology Futures published an updated broadband forecast to 2020:

tfi-broadband-subscriptions-forecast-2009-update

tfi-residential-broadband-wireless-subs-2009-update

tfi-residential-access-rates-2009-update

tfi-hdtv-households-2009-update

src:
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ray L. Hodges. February 2009.
Forecasts for the US Telecommunications Network.
Telektronikk 3/4.2008.

*

Chart 3: Actual download speeds by ISP, 2011 to 2014

fcc-download-speeds-2011-2014

Excerpt:

Chart 3 shows the actual download speeds experienced by each participating ISP’s subscribers — averaged across all analyzed speed tiers, geography, and time — from 2011 to 2014. The actual download speed, averaged across all participating ISPs, has tripled during this period, from approximately 10 Mbps in March 2011, to approximately 15 Mbps in September 2012, to nearly 31 Mbps in September 2014.

src:
FCC. December 30, 2015.
2015
Measuring Broadband America Fixed Broadband Report.

*

Table 4. Fixed Broadband Speeds (in Mbps), 2014–2019, North America
2014 — 21.8
2015 — 25.4
2016 — 28.7
2017 — 33.7
2018 — 38.7
2019 — 43.7
CAGR 2014-2019 — 15%

Excerpt:
Broadband speed is a crucial enabler of IP traffic. Broadband speed improvements result in increased consumption and use of high-bandwidth content and applications. The global average broadband speed continues to grow and will more than double from 2014 to 2019, from 20.3 Mbps to 42.5 Mbps. Table 4 shows the projected broadband speeds from 2014 to 2019. Several factors influence the fixed broadband speed forecast, including the deployment and adoption of fiber to the home (FTTH), high-speed DSL, and cable broadband adoption, as well as overall broadband penetration. Among the countries covered by this study, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden lead in terms of broadband speed largely due to their wide deployment of FTTH.

Note: North America is tied with Central and Eastern Europe for the lowest CAGR.

src:
Cisco. June 23, 2015.
The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis.

*

Census – Type of Household Internet Connection
2013 data here.
2013 is the first year of tracking
done under the American Community Survey (ACS)
Only other year with this data available is 2014.
The Current Population Survey (CPS) has asked about internet access since 1997.

*

statista-american-households-with-broadband-2007-2013

src:
Statista (original source hidden behind paywall)

Tags: , , , , , ,

Posted by Claudia Lamar on June 23, 2016 at 7:04 pm | comment count



Homes


Summary

This is a roundup of basic statistics describing American homes including homeownership rates, housing starts, second home ownership, urban vs. rural home distribution, housing features distribution, total households, and home sales/spending. Most of the data are historic, with a couple forecasts (for housing starts and total households).

Historic home ownership rates are available from the US Census Bureau from the present going back to 1965. Statistics broken down by age-group are available back to 1982.

Forecasts for housing starts are available to 2025 from Forisk. Much shorter one-year forecasts are available from the National Association of Home Builders. Historic housing starts data are available from the UC Census Bureau at least to 2000, possibly as far back as 1959 (TO DO: CHECK FOR OLDER DATA)

Decadal historic data for the number of vacation homes are available from 1940 to 2000 from the US Census Bureau. Biennial data for the number of seasonal homes from 1973 through 2005 have been aggregated by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). These figures just describe the number of second homes, but I’ve found a couple sources describing the number of households that own second homes (second home ownership rates). Statista has data for the number of people living in households that own second homes from 2008 to 2015. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has “other residential real estate” ownership rates broken down by a variety of demographic characteristics going back to 1989 (their survey is conducted every three years). The Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University (JCHS) has a comparison of second homeownership by age for 1995 and 2004 (using data from the Fed).

HUD has aggregated figures on the distribution of urban vs. rural housing from 1973 to 2005.

The US Census Bureau has a collection of housing features data for new single family homes, multifamily units, and multifamily buildings. Many of the data points go back to 1973, some only to 2005. Features tracked include square footage, number of stories, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, number of fireplaces, type of heating system, type of heating fuel, type of foundation, type of parking, outdoor features, lot size, number of units sold by price. Figures include the total number of houses/units, and the percentage distribution.

Statista has figures on the total number of US households from 1960 to 2015. The JCHS has a forecast (based on Census data) to 2035 for total households, as well as households by age, race, and occupancy relationships (single, married, families, etc).

NAHB has a line chart showing the number of new single-family homes sold from 1978-2012. Annual numeric values for 2011-2015 are available in a separate NAHB document. Data points for previous individual years may be available from NAHB upon request. In any case, the Census has data on new residential sales going back to 1963. Census also has median and average sales prices for new homes sold back to 1963, and type of financing for houses sold back to 1988. NAHB has an indexed comparison between residential construction spending for single-family homes, multifamily units, and improvements from 2000 through 2016.

Findings

Ownership vs Renting

Homeownership Rates for the US and Regions: 1965 to Present

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (CPS/HVS)
Historical Tables
“Table 14. Quarterly Homeownership Rates for the U.S. and Regions: 1965 to Present”

and imported to this Google Sheet.

*

Annual Homeownership Rates for the United States and Regions, 1968-2015

census-homeownership-rates-1968-2015

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Series H-111.

*

Annual Homeownership Rates for the United States by Age Group, 1982-2015

census-homeownership-by-age-1982-2015

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Series H-111.

Housing Starts

Forisk-Housing-Starts-Outlook-2013-2025

Forisk provides consulting services to the forest industry, wood bioenergy and timberland investing sectors.

src:
Brooks Mendell. April 22, 2016. “Forisk Forecast: US Housing Starts Outlook, Q2 2016 Update.” Forisk.

*

2011-2017 Housing Starts, New Single Family Sales, Existing Single-Family Home Sales, Interest Rates

src:
NAHB. “Housing and Interest Rate Forecasts
Accessed May 16, 2016 via the NAHB Forecasts page.
Exported to this Google Sheet.

*

New Housing Units Started in the United States

census-total-housing-starts-2000-2015

Note: Possible to infer multifamily starts from this chart by subtracting the single-family starts from total starts.

src:
New Residential Construction
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.

Data likely comes from one of these time series, for example, which go back to 1959.

Second Homes

Vacation Homes – United States, 1940-2000 (decadal data only)

Aggregated in the following Google Sheet.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 20, 2016.
Historical Census of Housing Tables: Vacation Homes

Note: the Census Bureau has annual data in individual annual reports, but this is the best aggregation I’ve found so far.

*

Eggers-housing-stock-1973vs2005

Excerpt:

Year-round units are either occupied or vacant. Note that “occupied” and “vacant” have precise definitions that do not coincide exactly with the common understanding of these words. A house may have one or more persons living in it, but if those persons typically reside somewhere else, the house is considered vacant from the perspective of the AHS. The decennial censuses use the same logic because this approach ensures that every household has one and only one place where it “resides,” and the approach also results in the number of households being equal to the number of occupied housing units.

Using this logic, a unit is vacant if it is not the “usual residence” of some household. Defined this way, a vacant unit is in some sense an excess unit—like having more chairs than children in a game of musical chairs. Table 1 shows that vacant units grew almost twice as fast as households between 1973 and 2005. This fact, combined with the growth in seasonal units, accounts for the increase in the ratio of housing units to households.

Data points aggregated in the following Google Sheet.

src:
Frederick J. Eggers, et al. October 2007.
32 Years of Housing Data.” P.4-5, A2-A8
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

*

Second home ownership: Number of people living in households that own a second home in the United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2015 (in millions)

statista-second-home-ownership-2008-2015

This statistic illustrates the number of people living in households that own a second home in the United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2015. In spring 2008, the number of people who said they live in a household that own a second home in the United States (USA) amounted to around 12.60 million.

src:
Statista (source hidden). Accessed May 23, 2016.
Second home ownership: Number of people living in households that own a second home in the United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2015 (in millions)

Note: I suspect the data either comes from the Census Bureau or the Survey of Consumer Finances, but I haven’t found the exact report/indicator.

*

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-age
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-age-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-family-structure
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-family-structure-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-education
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-education-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-work-status
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-work-status-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-occupation
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-occupation-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-urbanicity
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-urbanicity-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-housing-status
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-housing-status-data

src:
Survey of Consumer Finances. September 2, 2014.
2013 SCF Chartbook.” The 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances.
The Federal Reserve.
P.651-683

*

JCHS-second-homeownership-by-age-1995vs2004

src:
Eric S. Belsky, et al. 2006.
Multiple-Home Ownership and the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand.
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University.
citing Survey of Consumer Finances

Note: The source explains that the American Household Survey, the Housing Vacancy Survey, and the decennial Census all include estimates of the number of second home units. Surveys that ask households about whether they own additional properties include: The American Housing Survey; the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF); the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and industry surveys such as one of new homebuyers conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (2000) and by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) of homebuyers and homeowners. However, the SCF, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank, is the only survey conducted on a regular basis (every three years).

Urban/Rural Distribution of Homes

census-urban-rural-housing-disto-1973-2005

Excerpt:

Figure 3 traces the changing shares of the housing stock in “outside metropolitan” areas, in suburbs, and in central cities. The over-the-period changes coincide with expectations; the suburban share is substantially larger in 2005, while the shares in central cities and outside metropolitan areas are smaller. However, the trends are not smooth. The share outside metropolitan areas falls sharply between 1983 and 1985, and the central city share generally declines except for a one-time increase between 1983 and 1985. The discontinuities between 1983 and 1985 result from the introduction of new definitions of metropolitan area—changes that increased the population in central cities and suburbs at the expense of the non-metropolitan population. By 2005, suburbs accounted for 47 percent of the housing stock, central cities for 29 percent, and outside metropolitan areas for 24 percent.

src:
Frederick J. Eggers, et al. October 2007.
32 Years of Housing Data.” P.7.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Features

Highlights of Annual 2014 Characteristics of New Housing

Summary of characteristics for new single family homes, multifamily units, and multifamily buildings in 2014.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.
Highlights of Annual 2014 Characteristics of New Housing
*

For the data from the US Census Bureau below, the following definitions may be relevant:
RSE/SE – Relative Standard Error (percent), Standard Error (percentage points)
NA – Not available
A – Represents an RSE or SE that is greater or equal to 100 percent or could not be computed
Z – Less than 500 units or less than 0.5 percent
S – Withheld because estimate did not meet publication standards on the basis of response rate
or a consistency review

The Census data below is all also accessible through the Census Bureau’s “New Single-Family Homes in 2014” interactive graphic. Data for completed (but not necessarily sold) home are also available via that graphic.

Principal Type of Exterior Wall Material of New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-ext-wall-type-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

Note 1: Includes concrete block, stone, aluminum siding, and other types.
Data prior to 2005 include fiber cement. Data prior to 1992 include vinyl siding.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Principal Type of Exterior Wall Material of New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Square Feet of Floor Area in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1999-2014

census-sq-ft-floor-area-new-single-fam-homes-sold-1999-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Square Feet of Floor Area in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Stories in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 2005-2014

census-stories-new-single-fam-homes-sold-2005-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Stories in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Bedrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold
1973-2014

census-bedroom-count-new-single-family-homes-sold-1973-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Bedrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Bathrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-bathrooms-new-single-fam-homes-sold-1978-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Bathrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Presence of Air-Conditioning in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-aircon-new-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Presence of Air-Conditioning in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Fireplaces in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-fireplaces-new-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Fireplaces in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Heating System Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-heating-new-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

Note 1: Includes both air source and geothermal (ground source) versions.
Note 2: Includes electric baseboard, panel, radiant heat, space heater, floor or wall furnace, solar, and other types.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Heating System Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Heating Fuel Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1985-2014

census-heating-fuel-new-single-family-homes-sold-1985-2014

Note 1: Includes natural gas and bottled or liquified petroleum gas (including propane).
Note 2: Includes heating oil and kerosene.
Note 3: Includes wood, coal, solar, and other types. Beginning in 2014, also includes heating oil and kerosene.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Heating Fuel Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Foundation in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-foundation-new-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

Note 1: Includes raised supports such as pilings and piers, and other types.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Foundation in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Parking Facility of New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1986-2014

census-parking-new-single-family-homes-sold-1986-2014

Note 1: Prior to 1992, data included 2 cars or more.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Parking Facility of New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Presence of Outdoor Features in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 2010-2014.

census-outdoor-features-new-single-family-homes-sold-2010-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Presence of Outdoor Features in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Lot Size of New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1976-2014

census-lot-size-new-single-family-homes-sold-1976-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Lot Size of New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of New Single-Family Houses Sold by Sales Price, 2002-2014

census-sale-price-new-family-homes-sold-2002-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of New Single-Family Houses Sold by Sales Price and Location.” P.1.

*

Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Number of Units Per Building, 1972-2014

census-multifamily-units-per-building-1972-2014

Also available in the PDF linked below: Multifamily units completed for Rent vs Sale, 1999-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.
Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Number of Units Per Building

*

Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Square Feet per Unit, 1999-2014

census-multifamily-units-completed-sq-ft-1999-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.
Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Square Feet per Unit

*

More characteristics of units in multifamily units and buildings available from the US Census Bureau, here: Multifamily Units, Multifamily Buildings

*

American Housing Survey

Survey run since 1973, but haven’t found a source for aggregated historic data

All annual reports available here.

Indicators present in the 1973 report

Number of all housing units (numbers back to 1970)
Number of unites in structure (back to 1973)
Median number of rooms per unit (total, owner, renter)
Percent with two bedrooms (total, owner, renter)
Percent with 3 bedrooms or more (total, owner, renter)
Percent with 1.01 or more persons per room (total, owner, renter)
2-or-more-person households (total, owner, renter)
male head-wife present, no nonrelatives (total, owner, renter)
other male head (total, owner, renter)
female head (total, owner, renter)
1-person households (total, owner, renter)
owner-occupied unites (total, in central cities, no in central cities, non-metropolitan)
renter-occupied units (same as above)
Median value (1973 vs 1970)
Median gross rent (1973 vs 1970)
Median income (owner-occupied, renter-occupied, 1973 vs 1970)

src:
US Census Bureau. July 1975.
Annual Housing Survey: 1973 — Part A, General Characteristics

Households

Total Number of US Households 1960-2015 (in millions)
src: Statista. Accessed May 18, 2016.

Note: This /has to be/ Census data.

TO-DO: locate Census source and import data to a Google Sheet.

*

Households makeup forecast to 2035

Uses 2013 Census Bureau data to make 5-year projections from 2015 to 2035. Low, middle, and high projections given.

Includes households by age and race forecasts. Projects total households, married w/o children, married with children, partnered w/o children, partnered with children, single-parent w/o other adults, single-parent with other non-partner adults, single person households, and other households.

src:
Daniel McCue. March 2014.
Baseline Household Projections for the Next Decade and Beyond.
Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.

Click “Household Projection Tables” at the bottom of the page for the original Excel file. Also imported into this Google Sheet.

Home Sales and Spending

New Single-Family Home Sales
1978-2012 – chart with line only, no numeric figures for individual years
[NAHB-NewSFHSales-1978-2011.jpg]

src:
New Home Sales
NAHB, Accessed May 16, 2016

Annual Numeric values for 2011-2015 available here
src:
New and Existing Home Sales, U.S.
NAHB, April 25, 2016

US Census Bureau – New Residential Sales, Historical Data

linking out to…

Houses Sold by Region – Annual Data, 1963-2015

Includes US total for each year
src:
US Census Bureau

Houses for Sale by Region, 1963-2015

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States, 1963-2015

Houses Sold by Type of Financing, 1988-2015

Private Residential Construction Spending Index, 2000-2016
line chart with lines for
single-family
multifamily
improvements
Index, with 1/1/2000 as the base
Chart shows multifamily housing with the strongest growth in the last two years, improvements as the most stable over the whole period.

src:
Na Zhao. May 2, 2016. “Multifamily Spending Continues Record Breaking Pace.” NAHB Eye on Housing.

Posted by cc on June 9, 2016 at 11:13 pm | comment count



Video Games


Summary

The majority of the video games data I’ve found is historic, with a couple of one-off, short-term forecasts for mobile phone gamers by Statista (2011-2020), and another one-off forecast for 2008-2018 for daily time spent gaming by VSS. I’ve also seen a couple five-year industry revenues forecasts from Euromonitor and Pricewaterhouse Coopers (to 2019), but these figures are pretty well protected behind paywalls. NewZoo also forecasts audience and revenues for eSports to 2019, and they’re pretty open with their data, but these figures are global.

Releases per year historic data is available for 1971-2015 from Moby Games. I also found one Quora estimate for titles released 2003-2012, but this is a very rough approximate showing a trend that does not strictly agree with the Moby Games data.

The ESA publishes an annual “Essential Facts” report, which has recently included numeric estimates of the number of game players (2014). Older reports give percentages only. The indicators describing number of players have varied a bit from year to year, but some approximation is available for 2004 through the present. In addition to the ESA report, GameTrack has also issued a numeric estimate of the number of players, but just for 2012.

A few historic estimates of time spent gaming are available for 2011-2013 from Neilsen; 2008-2018 and 1995-2005 from VSS; 2014 from NPD Group; and 1999-2009 from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

I’ve found one website that provides fairly comprehensive eSports earnings information going back to 1998, including total prize money, tournaments, active players, US players, US earnings, etc.

Findings

Releases Per Year

A 2010 article describing the “death of the video game expert” as a result of the explosion in the number of games published per year refers to video game database MobyGames.com as its source for annual game release numbers. The article includes a chart through 2009, but doesn’t give the tallies for each year, so I’ve retrieved the information from MobyGames.

The simple tally for 1971-2015 is in this Google Sheet.

Note: This database includes substantially more titles than were reflected in the Quora answer below (in which data was gathered by hand from a variety of Wikipedia pages). I believe the MobyGames data to be more accurate.

Srcs:

Dana Laratta. April 8, 2010. “The Death of the Video Game Expert.” BitMob. via Internet Archive.

Game Browser — Year. MobyGames

*

A Quora researcher compiled data from various Wikipedia pages and found that in general there has been a decline in the number of releases per year from 2003 through 2012. Several commenters have theories on why this may be or corroborate the trend.
Trend:
Quora-games-per-year-graph
Raw numbers:
Quora-games-per-year-numbers

Src: David Cole. October 31, 2013. “On average, how many video games are released each year, by platform?” Quora.

I’m guessing the researcher probably mined these Wikipedia pages:
Category:Video games by year
Category: Video game lists by company

*

Since 1975 (through 2010), 547 films have given rise to around 2,000 video games, and film adaptations are now (2010) a category that accounts for some 10% of video games published.

src:
Alexix Blanchet. December 7, 2011. “A Statistical Analysis of the Adaptation of Films into Video Games

NOTE: IMAGE LINKS ARE BROKEN, BUT IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE HERE.
author email: alexis.blanchet@univ-paris3.fr
author website.

Video Game Players

Number of Americans aged 11+ who play video games

2012 – 68%, 165 million people

src:
GameTrack, via: Rachel Weber. Dec 11, 2012. “US Still the Gaming Super Power.” GamesIndustry.biz.

*

2014
155 million Americans play video games
4/5 of US households own a device to play video games
51% of US households own a dedicated game console
avg two gamers in each game-playing US household
42% of Americans play video games regularly (3 hours or more per week).
avg game player is 35 years old
26% are under 18
30% are 18-35
17% are 36-49
27% are 50+
56% of game players are male
44% of game players are female
women 18+ are 33% of gameplayers, boys 18- are only 15%
39% of the most frequent gamers play social games
top three types of games that the most frequent gamers play most often:
31% – social games
30% – action
30% – puzzle/board game/card game/game shows
top devices most frequent gamers use to play
PC – 62%
Dedicated console – 56%
Smartphone – 35%
Wireless device – 31%
Dedicated handheld system – 21%
56% of the most frequent gamers play with others
the most frequent gamers who play with others spend an average of
6.5 hrs per week playing with others online
5 hours per week playing with others in-person

src: The ESA, April 2015. “2015 Essential Facts.

2013 – 59% of Americans play video games
2012 – 58% of Americans play video games

srcs:
The ESA, October 2014. “2014 Essential Facts
and
The ESA, June 2013. “2013 Essential Facts

2011
49% of US households own a dedicated console

2010
72% of American households play computer or video games

2009
67% of American households play computer or video games

2008
68% of American households play computer or video games
43% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2007
65% of American households play computer or video games
42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2006
67% of American heads of households play computer or video games
41% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2005
69% of American heads of households play computer or video games
42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2004
75% of heads of households play computer or video games
47% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

Note: I believe the 2005 report (with data for 2004) was the first year the ESA started quantifying the number of players/playing households. The 2004 report (with data for 2003) does not include any such figures.

srcs:

The ESA. “2012 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2011 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2010 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2009 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2008 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2007 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2006 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2005 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2004 Essential Facts.

*

Number of mobile phone gamers in the US from 2011 to 2020 (in millions)
2011 – 80.7
2012 – 106.3
2013 – 129.3
2014 – 147.6
2015 – 164.9
2016 – 180.4 (forecast)
2017 – 192.2 (forecast)
2018 – 202.8 (forecast)
2019 – 209.5 (forecast)
2020 – 213 (forecast)

src:
Statista, citing eMarketer

# of Mobile Game Users (millions) – United States
2014 – 83.38
2015 – 95.56
2016 – 104.16
2017 – 112.189
2018 – 120.069
2019 – 125.022
2020 – 128.327

src: Krista Lofgren. February 8, 2016. “2016 Video Game Statistics & Trends Who’s Playing What & Why.” Big Fish Games.

Note: Big Fish Games produces and distributes casual games. These figures were not cited in the blog post in which they were given, but the author confirms by email that the data came from a Statista study on the Digital Market Outlook for video games.

Time Spent Gaming

Claimed weekly hours spent gaming on any platform (US gamers 13+)
2013 – 6.3 hours
2012 – 5.6 hours
2011 – 5.1 hours

src: Nielsen. May 27, 2014. “Multi-Platform Gaming: For The Win!

*

Time spent daily playing video games per capita
2008 – 17.8 min
2013 – 23.2 min
2018 – 28.3 min (forecast)

src: Veronis Suhler Stevenson & Borrell Assoicates (VSS), 2014, via Emmanuel Agu, et al. “Making Exergames Appealing” in “Handbook on Holistic Perspectives in Gamification for Clinical Pactice,” 2015.

*

daily time spent playing video games per capita in the US in 2018 expected to be 28.3

src:
LexInnova Technologies. July 1, 2014. “Godlike Gaming: A Landscape Analysis On The Future Of The Gaming Industry” p.5
NOTE: I suspect this report is referring to VSS data, although they’re not cited.

Hours per year spent playing video games (vs. reading)
1995 – 80 (100)
2000 – 140 (85)
2005 – 195 (80)

src: Estimated based on a chart citing Versonis Suhler Stevenson Communications Group. 2005. “2004 Communications Industry Forecast and Report.” adapted in: Lawrence Baines. 2008. “A Teacher’s Guide to Multisensory Learning.

Note: Converting the hours/year above to minutes/day would yield
1995 – 13.2
2000 – 23.0
2005 – 32.1

*

2014 – 34 million “core gamers” play core games on core devices an average of 22hrs/wk

These “core gamers” make up 12% of the total survey respondents (extrapolated to 34 million individuals ages 9+). This is down two percent from 14% of respondents in 2013.

Among the total surveyed population, 42% (extrapolated to 118 million individuals ages 9+) play on a core device. 19% (extrapoalted to 53 million) play 5+ hours per week on a core device.

“Core gamer”: individuals who play video games five or more hours per week on a PlayStation3, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC, or Mac, and who play Action, Adventure, Fighting, Flight, Massively Multi-Player, Racing, Real Time Strategy, Role-Plating, Shooter, or Sport genres on any of those devices.

src: NPD Group. May 13, 2014. “The NPD Group Reports 34 Million Core Gamers Spend an Average of 22 Hours per Week Playing Video Games
and
NPD Group. April 2014. “Core Gaming 2014 Snapshot Report.

*

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing video games
1999 – 26min/day
2004 – 49min/day
2009 – 1hr13min/day

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing games on computer
1999 – 12min/day
2004 – 19min/day
2009 – 17min/day

Note: this study also includes daily consumption figures for TV, music/audio, computer (including a games subcategory – don’t think this is included in the standalone video game consump figures), print media, movies

src:
Kaiser Family Foundation. January 2010. “Generation M2

Industry Revenue Forecasts

Euromonitor International.
July 2015. “Video Games in the US.
Includes industry stats 2009-2014, five year forecast from 2014-2019 (“Video games is expected to see a CAGR of 4% at constant 2014 prices over the forecast period.” Early growth will be driven by console purchases, thereafter by software sales.) Fee-based report – no other figures freely accessible.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers,
via Venture Beat.
June 2, 2015. “U.S. games industry forecast to grow 30 percent to $19.6B by 2019.
Contacts:
Pauline Orchard
Nicholas Braude
Annaul global entertainment and media outlook (Outlook), covers 13 entertainment and media segments, including video games. The Outlook provides a five-year foreast and five-year historic consumer and advertiser spending data and analysis.
US video game industry (console and PC games, browser-based games, apps, digital and physical, game advertising) will grow 30% from $15 billion in 2014 to $19.6 billion in 2019, with a mature compound annual growth rate of 5.5% Traditional console and PC games were about 80.8% of game industry revenue in 2014, and expected to drop a fraction to 79% by 2019. These figures DO NOT include hardware sales of gaming PCs, consoles, or other devices.
Physical PC game sales are projected to decline, but digital games will grow with a CAGR of 6.8% (from $501M to $696M.
Online PC games are expected to grow from $2.53B to $3.66B, a CAGR of 7.6%.
Total console games are expected to to grow from $8.84B to $11B, a CAGR of 4.5%. Online/microtransaction console games revenue is the fastest growing part of console-related traditional gaming, rising with a CAGR of 17.8%
Beyond traditional games, social/casual gaming revenue will grow at a CAGR of 4.5%, reflecting a switch from browser-based to app-based revenue. Overall, the social/casual segment of gaming will be 12% of the total revenue in 2019.
Video game ad revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.1%. Game ad revenues are stronger in the US than any other market because of the fragmented media landscape in the US, high digital video recorder ownership (which makes it easy to skip TV ads), high social network engagement, and low newspaper readership, all of which drives advertisers to seek out consumers in places like gaming.

eSports Viewership

71.5 million people watched competitive gaming in 2013.

src:
Phillippa Warr. April 9, 2014. “eSports in numbers: Five mind-blowing stats.” Redbull.com

*

Note: In the following poll, esports viewership makes up a small percentage of overall gaming video content, which includes trailers, reviews, walkthroughs, etc.

Worldwide gaming video content audience (all types of content, defined below)
2015 – 486 million
2017 – 790 million (forecast)

US gaming video content audience
2015 – 125 million
2017 – 181 million

Poll respondents had viewed gaming-related video content at least once in the past year.

Type of gaming video content viewed by US internet users, May 2015 (% of Respondents)
69% – trailers promoting upcoming video game relases
54% – humorous clips/montages of gameplay recorded by other players
53% – walkthroughs to help players complete a game, level, or side quest
52% – reviews (professional or amateur)
37% – gameplay with commentary by online personalities
33% – live streams
29% – peer-to-peer privately shared content
24% – esports (professional gaming)

src: SuperData Research via: eMarketer, July 20, 2015. “Consumers, Advertisers Enter Gaming Video Zone.

*

2015 – 150MM will have viewed an eSports tournament

Average 12-month video game spending by platform, for an average eSports viewer (amongst North American PC Gamers)
$176 – PC Games (client-based)
$111 – Console Games
$29 – Handheld Games
$19 – Mobile Games

versus the same 12-month spending for eSports non-participants
$125 – PC Games
$93 – Console Games
$16 – Handheld Games
$18 – Mobile Games

Note: Not sure if “non-participants” are gamers who haven’t played competitively in eSports matches, or gamers who don’t watch esports.

src: Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR), November 1, 2015. “ESports is Not a Fad

*

2015
About half of eSports viewers spend 1-4 hours per week watching esports. 20% watches for less than 1 hour per week, 20% watches 5-9 hours.

src: EEDAR. 2015. “ESports Consumer Analysis Whitepaper (report sample).” p.19

EEDAR contact: Cooper Waddell cwaddell@eedar.com

Global Esports Audience

Last year (2014) the World Championship finals for a fantasy-strategy game called League of Legends drew 45,000 spectators to the Seoul World Cup Stadium to watch 16 teams from South Korea and China battle it out for a $2.13 million prize pool, with a further 27 million people watching online.

Major League Gaming (MLG), founded 2003
chairman, Mike Sepso

MLGtv attracts 27 million viewers a month, drawing its revenue largely from mainstream consumer advertisers – fast-food chains, grooming products, car manufacturers. Sepso puts the company’s value “in the hundreds of millions” of dollars.

The top-earning CoD player is 22-year-old Matt Haag, who plays for Team Optic under the name NaDeSHoT. Three years ago Haag was flipping burgers in McDonald’s. He now has 1.6 million subscribers to his YouTube channel, 1.1 million followers on Twitter, and reportedly earns close to $1 million a year.

With a basic salary, and money made from weekly online tournaments, players can make $30,273 – $45,409 a year. The real money lies in sponsorship and the advertising revenue to be made from building up a fan-base by streaming on YouTube or Twitch.

SBRnet. May 1, 2015. “Video Games Becoming a Spectator Sport

*

NewZoo is a video game and esports research firm. Below are excerpts from both their 2016 and 2015 reports. The 2015 report makes some interesting scale comparisons to traditional sports.

2016 updates:

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Audience_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenue_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenues_per_Enthusiast

 

2015 excerpts:

In terms of audience, the report shows that the number of esports Enthusiasts will jump from 89 million last year (2014) to 145 million in 2017. Another 190 million will watch esports competitions occasionally, showing that competitive gaming has evolved to a spectator sport with a fan base comparable to that of Volleyball, American Football or Ice Hockey.

In terms of fans, there are 2.2 billion people globally who consider themselves to be interested or very interested in sports and of these, 1.6 billion actively participate in at least one sport. This is comparable to the 1.7 billion people that play games. On a global scale, the number of esports enthusiasts compares well to mid-tier traditional sports. Swimming and ice hockey for example have 76 million and 94 million global fans respectively, similar to the 89 million esports enthusiasts. By 2017, the global number of esports fans will come close to that of American football.

sports-esports-fans-2017-newzoo

On a global scale, there are 2.2 billion sports fans who each generate an average of $56 per year. The average revenue for individual sports is anywhere from $20 upwards. Esports enthusiasts on the other hand, currently generate an average of $2.2 per person per year, without game revenues taken into account. Our current esports revenue projections use a conservative $3.2 average revenue per enthusiast figure for 2017. With growth mainly driven by a larger audience, global esports revenues will still rise to $451 million in two years from now. This renders esports comparable to a top 10 sport or globally renowned leagues like the NFL or Champions League. If the average revenue per enthusiast grows faster and jumps to $7, esports will be a billion dollar business by 2017 with even more growth potential going forward. Drawing from the comparison with traditional sports, the report highlights which factors will determine the pace of growth of the esports Economy.

esports-revenue-2020-newzoo

srcs:
NewZoo. January 25, 2016. “Global Esports Market Report: Revenues To Jump To $463M In 2016 As Us Leads The Way.
and
NewZoo. February 16, 2015. “The Esports Economy Will Generate At Least $465 Million In 2017.
11-page preview

eSports Earnings

esportsearnings.com tracks prize earnings, and player, team, and country rankings. Historic data goes back to 1998. Information is sourced from the community, but there is a strict requirement for data to be cited. I cross-referenced a few of the figures against data reported by Redbull’s esports reporting, and the figures were very close.

Data is collected in the following Google Doc.

This database has been cited in reporting by The Verge.

Posted by cc on May 20, 2016 at 7:18 pm | comment count



Video Games


Summary

The majority of the video games data I’ve found is historic, with a couple of one-off, short-term forecasts for mobile phone gamers by Statista (2011-2020), and another one-off forecast for 2008-2018 for daily time spent gaming by VSS. I’ve also seen a couple five-year industry revenues forecasts from Euromonitor and Pricewaterhouse Coopers (to 2019), but these figures are pretty well protected behind paywalls. NewZoo also forecasts audience and revenues for eSports to 2019, and they’re pretty open with their data, but these figures are global.

Releases per year historic data is available for 1971-2015 from Moby Games. I also found one Quora estimate for titles released 2003-2012, but this is a very rough approximate showing a trend that does not strictly agree with the Moby Games data.

The ESA publishes an annual “Essential Facts” report, which has recently included numeric estimates of the number of game players (2014). Older reports give percentages only. The indicators describing number of players have varied a bit from year to year, but some approximation is available for 2004 through the present. In addition to the ESA report, GameTrack has also issued a numeric estimate of the number of players, but just for 2012.

A few historic estimates of time spent gaming are available for 2011-2013 from Neilsen; 2008-2018 and 1995-2005 from VSS; 2014 from NPD Group; and 1999-2009 from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

I’ve found one website that provides fairly comprehensive eSports earnings information going back to 1998, including total prize money, tournaments, active players, US players, US earnings, etc.

Findings

Releases Per Year

A 2010 article describing the “death of the video game expert” as a result of the explosion in the number of games published per year refers to video game database MobyGames.com as its source for annual game release numbers. The article includes a chart through 2009, but doesn’t give the tallies for each year, so I’ve retrieved the information from MobyGames.

The simple tally for 1971-2015 is in this Google Sheet.

Note: This database includes substantially more titles than were reflected in the Quora answer below (in which data was gathered by hand from a variety of Wikipedia pages). I believe the MobyGames data to be more accurate.

Srcs:

Dana Laratta. April 8, 2010. “The Death of the Video Game Expert.” BitMob. via Internet Archive.

Game Browser — Year. MobyGames

*

A Quora researcher compiled data from various Wikipedia pages and found that in general there has been a decline in the number of releases per year from 2003 through 2012. Several commenters have theories on why this may be or corroborate the trend.
Trend:
Quora-games-per-year-graph
Raw numbers:
Quora-games-per-year-numbers

Src: David Cole. October 31, 2013. “On average, how many video games are released each year, by platform?” Quora.

I’m guessing the researcher probably mined these Wikipedia pages:

Category:Video games by year

Category: Video game lists by company

*

Since 1975 (through 2010), 547 films have given rise to around 2,000 video games, and film adaptations are now (2010) a category that accounts for some 10% of video games published.

src:

Alexix Blanchet. December 7, 2011. “A Statistical Analysis of the Adaptation of Films into Video Games

NOTE: IMAGE LINKS ARE BROKEN, BUT IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE HERE.

author email: alexis.blanchet@univ-paris3.fr
author website.

Video Game Players

Number of Americans aged 11+ who play video games

2012 – 68%, 165 million people

src:

GameTrack, via: Rachel Weber. Dec 11, 2012. “US Still the Gaming Super Power.” GamesIndustry.biz.

*

2014

155 million Americans play video games

4/5 of US households own a device to play video games

51% of US households own a dedicated game console

avg two gamers in each game-playing US household

42% of Americans play video games regularly (3 hours or more per week).

avg game player is 35 years old

26% are under 18

30% are 18-35

17% are 36-49

27% are 50+

56% of game players are male

44% of game players are female

women 18+ are 33% of gameplayers, boys 18- are only 15%

39% of the most frequent gamers play social games

top three types of games that the most frequent gamers play most often:

31% – social games

30% – action

30% – puzzle/board game/card game/game shows

top devices most frequent gamers use to play

PC – 62%

Dedicated console – 56%

Smartphone – 35%

Wireless device – 31%

Dedicated handheld system – 21%

56% of the most frequent gamers play with others

the most frequent gamers who play with others spend an average of

6.5 hrs per week playing with others online

5 hours per week playing with others in-person

src: The ESA, April 2015. “2015 Essential Facts.

2013 – 59% of Americans play video games

2012 – 58% of Americans play video games

srcs:

The ESA, October 2014. “2014 Essential Facts

and

The ESA, June 2013. “2013 Essential Facts

2011

49% of US households own a dedicated console

2010

72% of American households play computer or video games

2009

67% of American households play computer or video games

2008

68% of American households play computer or video games

43% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2007

65% of American households play computer or video games

42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2006

67% of American heads of households play computer or video games

41% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2005

69% of American heads of households play computer or video games

42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2004

75% of heads of households play computer or video games

47% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

Note: I believe the 2005 report (with data for 2004) was the first year the ESA started quantifying the number of players/playing households. The 2004 report (with data for 2003) does not include any such figures.

srcs:

The ESA. “2012 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2011 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2010 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2009 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2008 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2007 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2006 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2005 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2004 Essential Facts.

*

Number of mobile phone gamers in the US from 2011 to 2020 (in millions)

2011 – 80.7

2012 – 106.3

2013 – 129.3

2014 – 147.6

2015 – 164.9

2016 – 180.4 (forecast)

2017 – 192.2 (forecast)

2018 – 202.8 (forecast)

2019 – 209.5 (forecast)

2020 – 213 (forecast)

src:
Statista, citing eMarketer

# of Mobile Game Users (millions) – United States

2014 – 83.38

2015 – 95.56

2016 – 104.16

2017 – 112.189

2018 – 120.069

2019 – 125.022

2020 – 128.327

src: Krista Lofgren. February 8, 2016. “2016 Video Game Statistics & Trends Who’s Playing What & Why.” Big Fish Games.

Note: Big Fish Games produces and distributes casual games. These figures were not cited in the blog post in which they were given, but the author confirms by email that the data came from a Statista study on the Digital Market Outlook for video games.

Time Spent Gaming

Claimed weekly hours spent gaming on any platform (US gamers 13+)

2013 – 6.3 hours

2012 – 5.6 hours

2011 – 5.1 hours

src: Nielsen. May 27, 2014. “Multi-Platform Gaming: For The Win!

*

Time spent daily playing video games per capita

2008 – 17.8 min

2013 – 23.2 min

2018 – 28.3 min (forecast)

src: Veronis Suhler Stevenson & Borrell Assoicates (VSS), 2014, via Emmanuel Agu, et al. “Making Exergames Appealing” in “Handbook on Holistic Perspectives in Gamification for Clinical Pactice,” 2015.

*

daily time spent playing video games per capita in the US in 2018 expected to be 28.3

src:

LexInnova Technologies. July 1, 2014. “Godlike Gaming: A Landscape Analysis On The Future Of The Gaming Industry” p.5

NOTE: I suspect this report is referring to VSS data, although they’re not cited.

Hours per year spent playing video games (vs. reading)

1995 – 80 (100)

2000 – 140 (85)

2005 – 195 (80)

src: Estimated based on a chart citing Versonis Suhler Stevenson Communications Group. 2005. “2004 Communications Industry Forecast and Report.” adapted in: Lawrence Baines. 2008. “A Teacher’s Guide to Multisensory Learning.

Note: Converting the hours/year above to minutes/day would yield

1995 – 13.2

2000 – 23.0

2005 – 32.1

*

2014 – 34 million “core gamers” play core games on core devices an average of 22hrs/wk

These “core gamers” make up 12% of the total survey respondents (extrapolated to 34 million individuals ages 9+). This is down two percent from 14% of respondents in 2013.

Among the total surveyed population, 42% (extrapolated to 118 million individuals ages 9+) play on a core device. 19% (extrapoalted to 53 million) play 5+ hours per week on a core device.

“Core gamer”: individuals who play video games five or more hours per week on a PlayStation3, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC, or Mac, and who play Action, Adventure, Fighting, Flight, Massively Multi-Player, Racing, Real Time Strategy, Role-Plating, Shooter, or Sport genres on any of those devices.

src: NPD Group. May 13, 2014. “The NPD Group Reports 34 Million Core Gamers Spend an Average of 22 Hours per Week Playing Video Games

and

NPD Group. April 2014. “Core Gaming 2014 Snapshot Report.

*

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing video games

1999 – 26min/day

2004 – 49min/day

2009 – 1hr13min/day

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing games on computer

1999 – 12min/day

2004 – 19min/day

2009 – 17min/day

Note: this study also includes daily consumption figures for TV, music/audio, computer (including a games subcategory – don’t think this is included in the standalone video game consump figures), print media, movies

src:

Kaiser Family Foundation. January 2010. “Generation M2

Industry Revenue Forecasts

Euromonitor International.

July 2015. “Video Games in the US.

Includes industry stats 2009-2014, five year forecast from 2014-2019 (“Video games is expected to see a CAGR of 4% at constant 2014 prices over the forecast period.” Early growth will be driven by console purchases, thereafter by software sales.) Fee-based report – no other figures freely accessible.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers,

via Venture Beat.

June 2, 2015. “U.S. games industry forecast to grow 30 percent to $19.6B by 2019.

Contacts:

Pauline Orchard

Nicholas Braude

Annaul global entertainment and media outlook (Outlook), covers 13 entertainment and media segments, including video games. The Outlook provides a five-year foreast and five-year historic consumer and advertiser spending data and analysis.

US video game industry (console and PC games, browser-based games, apps, digital and physical, game advertising) will grow 30% from $15 billion in 2014 to $19.6 billion in 2019, with a mature compound annual growth rate of 5.5% Traditional console and PC games were about 80.8% of game industry revenue in 2014, and expected to drop a fraction to 79% by 2019. These figures DO NOT include hardware sales of gaming PCs, consoles, or other devices.

Physical PC game sales are projected to decline, but digital games will grow with a CAGR of 6.8% (from $501M to $696M.

Online PC games are expected to grow from $2.53B to $3.66B, a CAGR of 7.6%.

Total console games are expected to to grow from $8.84B to $11B, a CAGR of 4.5%. Online/microtransaction console games revenue is the fastest growing part of console-related traditional gaming, rising with a CAGR of 17.8%

Beyond traditional games, social/casual gaming revenue will grow at a CAGR of 4.5%, reflecting a switch from browser-based to app-based revenue. Overall, the social/casual segment of gaming will be 12% of the total revenue in 2019.

Video game ad revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.1%. Game ad revenues are stronger in the US than any other market because of the fragmented media landscape in the US, high digital video recorder ownership (which makes it easy to skip TV ads), high social network engagement, and low newspaper readership, all of which drives advertisers to seek out consumers in places like gaming.

eSports Viewership

71.5 million people watched competitive gaming in 2013.

src:

Phillippa Warr. April 9, 2014. “eSports in numbers: Five mind-blowing stats.” Redbull.com

*

Note: In the following poll, esports viewership makes up a small percentage of overall gaming video content, which includes trailers, reviews, walkthroughs, etc.

Worldwide gaming video content audience (all types of content, defined below)

2015 – 486 million

2017 – 790 million (forecast)

US gaming video content audience

2015 – 125 million

2017 – 181 million

Poll respondents had viewed gaming-related video content at least once in the past year.

Type of gaming video content viewed by US internet users, May 2015 (% of Respondents)

69% – trailers promoting upcoming video game relases

54% – humorous clips/montages of gameplay recorded by other players

53% – walkthroughs to help players complete a game, level, or side quest

52% – reviews (professional or amateur)

37% – gameplay with commentary by online personalities

33% – live streams

29% – peer-to-peer privately shared content

24% – esports (professional gaming)

src: SuperData Research via: eMarketer, July 20, 2015. “Consumers, Advertisers Enter Gaming Video Zone.

*

2015 – 150MM will have viewed an eSports tournament

Average 12-month video game spending by platform, for an average eSports viewer (amongst North American PC Gamers)

$176 – PC Games (client-based)

$111 – Console Games

$29 – Handheld Games

$19 – Mobile Games

versus the same 12-month spending for eSports non-participants

$125 – PC Games

$93 – Console Games

$16 – Handheld Games

$18 – Mobile Games

Note: Not sure if “non-participants” are gamers who haven’t played competitively in eSports matches, or gamers who don’t watch esports.

src: Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR), November 1, 2015. “ESports is Not a Fad

*

2015

About half of eSports viewers spend 1-4 hours per week watching esports. 20% watches for less than 1 hour per week, 20% watches 5-9 hours.

src: EEDAR. 2015. “ESports Consumer Analysis Whitepaper (report sample).” p.19

EEDAR contact: Cooper Waddell cwaddell@eedar.com

Global Esports Audience

Last year (2014) the World Championship finals for a fantasy-strategy game called League of Legends drew 45,000 spectators to the Seoul World Cup Stadium to watch 16 teams from South Korea and China battle it out for a $2.13 million prize pool, with a further 27 million people watching online.

Major League Gaming (MLG), founded 2003

chairman, Mike Sepso

MLGtv attracts 27 million viewers a month, drawing its revenue largely from mainstream consumer advertisers – fast-food chains, grooming products, car manufacturers. Sepso puts the company’s value “in the hundreds of millions” of dollars.

The top-earning CoD player is 22-year-old Matt Haag, who plays for Team Optic under the name NaDeSHoT. Three years ago Haag was flipping burgers in McDonald’s. He now has 1.6 million subscribers to his YouTube channel, 1.1 million followers on Twitter, and reportedly earns close to $1 million a year.

With a basic salary, and money made from weekly online tournaments, players can make $30,273 – $45,409 a year. The real money lies in sponsorship and the advertising revenue to be made from building up a fan-base by streaming on YouTube or Twitch.

SBRnet. May 1, 2015. “Video Games Becoming a Spectator Sport

*

NewZoo is a video game and esports research firm. Below are excerpts from both their 2016 and 2015 reports. The 2015 report makes some interesting scale comparisons to traditional sports.

2016 updates:

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Audience_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenue_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenues_per_Enthusiast

2015 excerpts:

In terms of audience, the report shows that the number of esports Enthusiasts will jump from 89 million last year (2014) to 145 million in 2017. Another 190 million will watch esports competitions occasionally, showing that competitive gaming has evolved to a spectator sport with a fan base comparable to that of Volleyball, American Football or Ice Hockey.

In terms of fans, there are 2.2 billion people globally who consider themselves to be interested or very interested in sports and of these, 1.6 billion actively participate in at least one sport. This is comparable to the 1.7 billion people that play games. On a global scale, the number of esports enthusiasts compares well to mid-tier traditional sports. Swimming and ice hockey for example have 76 million and 94 million global fans respectively, similar to the 89 million esports enthusiasts. By 2017, the global number of esports fans will come close to that of American football.

sports-esports-fans-2017-newzoo

On a global scale, there are 2.2 billion sports fans who each generate an average of $56 per year. The average revenue for individual sports is anywhere from $20 upwards. Esports enthusiasts on the other hand, currently generate an average of $2.2 per person per year, without game revenues taken into account. Our current esports revenue projections use a conservative $3.2 average revenue per enthusiast figure for 2017. With growth mainly driven by a larger audience, global esports revenues will still rise to $451 million in two years from now. This renders esports comparable to a top 10 sport or globally renowned leagues like the NFL or Champions League. If the average revenue per enthusiast grows faster and jumps to $7, esports will be a billion dollar business by 2017 with even more growth potential going forward. Drawing from the comparison with traditional sports, the report highlights which factors will determine the pace of growth of the esports Economy.

esports-revenue-2020-newzoo

srcs:

NewZoo. January 25, 2016. “Global Esports Market Report: Revenues To Jump To $463M In 2016 As Us Leads The Way.

and

NewZoo. February 16, 2015. “The Esports Economy Will Generate At Least $465 Million In 2017.
11-page preview

eSports Earnings

esportsearnings.com tracks prize earnings, and player, team, and country rankings. Historic data goes back to 1998. Information is sourced from the community, but there is a strict requirement for data to be cited. I cross-referenced a few of the figures against data reported by Redbull’s esports reporting, and the figures were very close.

Data is collected in the following Google Doc.

This database has been cited in reporting by The Verge.

Video Games was originally published on Extrapolations

Posted by on May 18, 2016 at 8:03 pm | comment count



Sports Fandom, Spending & Spectatorship, Fantasy Sports


Summary

Most of the data reported here are historic, although I’ve found a couple forecasts from Pricewaterhouse Coopers for stadium building, and ticket and merchandise sales, 2008-2019.

A small chart contrasting data on sports attendance spending vs. consumer confidence 2011-2015 was published by Rich Luker, who runs ESPN’s annual Sports Poll. I suspect we could find more historic data for both lines to create an expanded chart.

I’ve found several polls describing sports fandom. For the most port, the polls give percentages of respondents, rather than raw figures. Harris’s poll presents the oldest data I’ve seen (back to 1985), although I believe ESPN’s poll has been running for longer than it’s published data would suggest (chart shows data back to 2000, but I think the polls have been running since the mid ’90s).

I’ve collected major league attendance for the NBA and MLB are available back to 1981, and for the NFL back to 1994. Older NFL attendance available is probably available, somewhere.

Team Marketing Report publishes a “Fan Cost Index” which tracks the prices of tickets, as well as other typical spectator expenditures (eg: hot dogs, beer, etc). I’ve found their data for NFL ticket prices back to 2006 via Statista. We should try to contact them for more data.

Findings

Sports Fandom

luker-spending-vs-economy

luker-2015-sports-fandom-and-spending

In 2015, 23.4 percent of Americans spent on sports at least once a month, a 6 percent decline from the average 24.9 percent for 2011-14. This trend, if it continues for five more years, will reduce the number of people spending monthly by 10 million.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures consumer confidence, rose by 21 percent in 2015 compared with 2011-14, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 24 percent in 2015 compared with 2011-14. These three sources of data, showing similar growth, indicate a context where more frequent spending in sports should have taken place. And generally, for more than 22 years, engagement in sports has mirrored the performance of the economy and personal finances. We noticed a shift in those trends around 2011, when it seemed the economy was perking up.

The percentage of American sports fans remained near a very stable 88 percent from 2011-15, but avid fans declined by 2 percent in 2015, and those who placed a high priority on time and investment in sports interests dropped 4 percent. Similarly, 4 percent more Americans said they were “less interested in sports than they were the year before” in 2015, compared with the 2011-14 average.

src:
Rich Luker. February 22, 2016. “Sports spending not on pace with economic growth.” Sports Business Daily. contact: rich@lukerco.com

*

Harris has run an annual poll at least since 1985 asking what Americans’ favorite sports are. In this chart, data is only available for the latest year (2014), but we may be able to obtain figures for the preceeding years by contacting Harris.

Harris-favorite-sports-1985-2014

src:
Harris Poll, via
Cork Gaines. February 20, 2015. “The popularity of the NFL is starting to fall in the US.” Business Insider

TO DO: CONTACT HARRIS TO ASK FOR HISTORIC DATA POINTS.

A much simpler, semi-regular Gallup poll, 2001-2015, simply asks if people consider themselves sports fans.

gallup-fans-2001-2015

src:
Jeffrey M. Jones. June 17, 2015. “As Industry Grows, Percentage of U.S. Sports Fans Steady.” Gallup.

The ESPN Sports Poll, run annually since 1994 by Rich Luker, defines percentages of fans and avid fans, and, by subtraction, non-fans. This particular graphic only give data back to 2000, but we may be able to ask Luker (or his colleague) for older data.

ESPN-Sports-Poll-avid-fans-2000-2014

src:
Jess3 (the graphic’s designer), 2015.
Using ESPN Sports Poll data, collected by Rich Luker and Chad Menefee. Contact: chad@lukerontrends.com

TO DO: EMAIL CHAD MENEFEE TO ASK FOR OLDER DATA

The ESPN Sports Poll has also been tracking college sports fans at least since 2000. This chart shows percentage and numeric data for 2000-2010.

ESPN-Sports-Poll-college-sports-fans-2000-2010

src:
Kenneth Cortsen. August 16, 2013.
IMG’s Capitalization On Sport Stars And Other Assets – IMG College Is Meant For Success.

Spending And Spectatorship

Pricewaterhouse Coopers publishes an annual 5-year-forecast of sports industry figures, including gate revenues and merchandising. The publications also include data for the previous five years. Data for 2008-2019 are freely available in the 2013, 2014, and 2015 editions, and I’ve aggregated the gate revenues and merchandising data in the following Google Sheet:

src: Adam W. Jones (editor). “PwC Sports Outlook.” PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
contact: adam.w.jones@us.pwc.com
November 2013 edition
October 2014 edition
October 2015 edition

*

Professional League Game Attendance

ESPN collects historic game data, including attendance, going back to 2001, for several professional sports. However, Peter Von Allmen, an academic economist and current president of the North American Association of Sports Economists (NAASE), referred me to the [sport]-reference.com websites as an excellent source for historic sports data going back much further than ESPN’s data.

I’ve compiled the [sport]-reference.com data describing the number of teams and attendance (total regular season, and average per game attendance, in some cases) for the NBA, MLB, and NFL in the following Google Sheet:

Note: NBA data is collected for 1981-2016. Attendance figures are actually available going back to 1946, but only for a couple teams per season.

Srcs:
Basketball-Reference.com
[Click on a season date, then Summary, then Miscellaneous Stats to find attendance figures.]
Baseball-Reference.com
[Click on a season date, then Other, then Attendance & Misc.]
Pro-Football-Reference.com
[Click on “NFL” next to a season date, then Other, then Attendance]
NOTE: The tallies on the NFL site are incorrect, so I’ve re-calculated them

Other sources:

NHL attendance
ESPN has data back to 2001
but HockeyDB.com has league totals data back to 1994
and average home game data older than that
Average home game data
AWAITING AN EMAIL (5/2/16) FROM RALPH SLATE, WHO MAY BE WILLING TO SHARE

MLB and NFL data is available from ESPN, going back to 2001

NCAA Football
total fans per year 1954-2014
THERE’S A GRAPH, BUT ONLY 2014 IS LABELED WITH A FIGURE
src: National Football Foundation, June 2015
“2014 Report: Passion for College Football Remains Strong – See more at: http://www.footballfoundation.org/tabid/567/Article/55324/2014-Report-Passion-for-College-Football-Remains-Strong.aspx#sthash.cjtYWG1T.dpuf”

http://www.footballfoundation.org/tabid/567/Article/55324/2014-Report-Passion-for-College-Football-Remains-Strong.aspx

*

Average NFL ticket price, 2006 – 2015
2006 – 62.38
2007 – 67.11
2008 – 72.2
2009 – 74.99
2010 – 76.47
2011 – 77.34
2012 – 78.38
2013 – 81.54
2014 – 84.43
2015 – 85.83

via Statista, citing TMR 2006 to 2015
(TMR: Team Marketing Report)

*

Major league facilities

PwC-major-league-facilities-aging1995-2022

src: Adam W. Jones (editor). “PwC Sports Outlook.” October 2014. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. P.4
contact: adam.w.jones@us.pwc.com

Fantasy Sports

Number of fantasy sports players by year (Figure 2)

1988 500,000
1991-1994 1 – 3 Million
2003 15.2 Million
2004 13.5 Million
2005 12.6 Million
2006 18 Million
2007 19.4 Million
2008 29.9 Million
2009 28.4 Million
2010 32 Million
2011 35.9 Million
2014 41.5 Million
2015 56.8 Million

Percentage of fantasy sports players compared to the general population of the United States, age 12+ (Figure 1)
Total – 14%
Adults – 13%
Teens – 18%
Male – 19%
Female – 8%
College Education – 18%
No College Education – 10%
HH Income $50k+ – 16%
HH income <$50K – 10%

On average, fantasy sports players (age 18+) spend $465 on league-related costs, single-player challenge games, and league-related materials over a 12-month period. Up from $95 in 2012 (src: press release).

src: Fantasy Sports Trade Association. “Industry Demographics.” Accessed May 4, 2016.
press release for the recent research.

Posted by cc on at 6:44 pm | comment count



Historic Variety of Sports


Summary

To get a sense for the growth in the variety of commonly practiced sports, I considered which organizations would have been tracking individual sports in an official capacity. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has a fairly long modern history, but sports included in the Olympic Games are restricted by the organizations rules, so while the IOC list certainly includes many of the most popular sports, and reflects some shifts over the last century, it certainly does not include many emerging but popular sports, or sports that are very popular in a particular region (like American football). I wrote to a number of organizations that lobby on behalf of sports that may have international federations, but lack representation in the Olympics, but I was not able to obtain historic data from any of them. I also thought to consult lists maintained by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) and the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), but these share limitations similar to the sports represented by the IOC. At the other end of the spectrum, I found one website, Topend Sports, which has a fantastic list of sports from around the world which seems quite comprehensive, but unfortunately offers no date information (either documenting when the sport was created or when it became popular).

Findings

International Olympic Committee (IOC)

Some context on IOC terminology and rules:
The IOC uses the terms “event,” “discipline” and “sport” to organize their athletic competitions. An event is any competition that results in the awarding of medals, such as the women’s 100-meter backstroke. The discipline of swimming, which comprises various events like the backstroke, breaststroke and freestyle, is a branch of the sport aquatics.

For a sport or discipline to be considered for the Summer Olympics, it must demonstrate popularity among both genders in various parts of the world. Men from at least 75 countries and women from at least 50 countries should practice a given sport on four continents.

When determining which sports to include in an Olympic program, at least 25 of the sports offered must come from the 28 sports established by the IOC. Up to three additional sports may be added that are not from among this pre-established group.

src:
Greg Soltis. July 27, 2012. “The Incredible Evolution of the Olympics.” LiveScience.

After writing to the International Society of Olympic Historians, I was referred to Bill Malon, who maintains an extensive Excel document with data from 1896-2012, including:
Number of Events per Sport by Year (by gender)
Total # of Events by Year (broken down by gender)
Total # Sports by Year (broken down by gender)
List of Sports and Events by Year (by gender)
List and Total # of Countries by Year

Mr. Malon’s Excel file (originally shared as OGCompShort.xls) is available in this Google Sheets document:

A simple list of the number of sports in each Olympic Games by year is also maintained by Topend Sports: Olympic Games Sports Changes. The list notes which sports were added or dropped in each Games.

*

Agencies That Support the IOC

SportAccord
An association composed of autonomous and independent international sports federations and other international organisations contributing to sport in various fields.

SportAccord promotes sports, increases its and its members’ recognition by the Olympic Movement, and organizes multi-sports games.

To be a Member, an organization must group together the majority of the National Federations throughout the world practicing its sport and regularly hold international competitions. To be an Associate Member, an organization can either group together the activities of several Members or National Olympic Committees for the purpose of organizing competitions, or have objectives recognized by the Council as benefiting the other Members of the Association.

(Previously known as GAISF, the General Association of International Sports Federations.)

src: SportAccord. “2014 Statutes.” Accessed April 7, 2016.

Members list – 106 members

Contact: sportaccord@sportaccord.com
EMAILED 4/13. No reply.

Also sent inquires to The Association of IOC Recognised International Sports Federations (ARISF), info@arisf.org, and the Alliance of Independent Recognised Members of Sport (AIMS), contact form. No reply from them either.

*

Sports counted in the NFHS Annual Survey, 1969-2015

Counting each sport that gets its own major subject heading in the tables. For example, “Skiing — Alpine” and “Skiing — Cross Country” count for a total of two sports. However, “Football — 11-player”, which often includes three subheadings (“6-player,” “8-player,” and “9-player”), is only counted once. “Flag Football,” with its own heading is counted separately from “Football — 11-Player.”
For example:
[NFHS-skiing-headings.png]

NFHS-football-headings.png

Note: Each of the annual surveys are freely available, but this is a sampling of every five years.

1969/70 – 29 sports
1975/76 – 31 sports
   Added: Archery, Drill Teams, Table Tennis, Weightlifting
   Dropped: Rowing, Rugger
1980 – 36 sports
   
   Added: Canoeing, Crew, Eskimo Games, Judo, Soft Tennis, second Softball category
   Dropped: Rugby
1985 – 31 sports
   Dropped: Curling, Drill Teams, Eskimo Games, Soft Tennis, Table Tennis
   Added: Equestrian, Heptathalon
   Condensed to one entry each: Softball, Track & Field
1990 – 32 sports
   Added: Other
1995 – 38 sports
   Added: Adapted Sports, Competitive Spirit Squads, Team Tennis,
   De-condensed: Skiing, Softball, Track & Field
2000 – 35 sports
   Condensed: Skiing, Softball, Track & Field
2004/05 – 41 sports
   Added: 4 Dance categories, Flag Football, Skiing category, Snowboarding
   Dropped: Decathalon, Heptathalon, Pentathalon, Water Polo
   De-condensed: Skiing, Softball, Track & Field
2009/10 – 42 sports
   Added: Air Riflery, Rodeo, Synchronized Swimming, Water Polo
   Condensed: 3 Dance categories, 2 Skiing categories
2014/15 – 53 sports
   Added: Boce, Dance category, Decathalon, Heptathalon, Kayaking, Mixed Coed Valleyball,
   Mountain Biking, Rugby, Sailing, Soft Tennis, Surfing,

Srcs:
The National Federation Of State High School Associations.
1969-2014 High School Athletics Participation Survey Results.” Pp. 1, 23, 56, 112, 176, 258, 344, 418, 501.
and
2014-15 High School Athletics Participation Survey.” Pp. 1-2

*

International Sports Federations

Wikipedia – List of international sports federations
Includes federations recognized by IOC, ASOIF, AIOWF, ARISF, IPC, and SportAccord. Many of the federations have Wikipedia pages showing the date of creation.

Topend Sports also maintains a list of international sport federations, sorted alphabetically by sport. Current total count: 171.
Note: No links to the federation websites. Links to internal pages about the sport – no date information, just short, general descriptions of the sports.

*

More Comprehensive Sports Lists

Topend Sports maintains a “Complete List of Sports from Around the World.”

The list currently has 806 entries, but no date information. Separately, they maintain a list of “Ancient and Extinct Sports.”

Topend Sports also has an interesting list of “New and Unusual Sports” submitted by readers, but I think many of the sports are just theoretical.

*

Other Resources

North American Association of Sports Economists

Journal of Sports Management
current editor: David Shilbury
Published by the North American Society For Sports Management (NASSM)
Indexed in Human Kinetic Journals

North American Society for Sport History (NASSH)

Sport In American History
group blog – primarily academic contributors
links page points to other orgs

The LA84 Foundation operates the largest sports research library in North America, the Paul Ziffren Sports Resource Center. It is a state-of-the-art research facility and learning center dedicated to the advancement of sports knowledge and scholarship. The Foundation also maintains a sizable collection of historic sport art and artifacts much of which was inherited from the former Helms Athletic Foundation Sports Halls of Fame. Its digital holdings, accessible to the public through its website, include not only a complete set of Olympic Official Reports, but also the full run of the Journal of Olympic History and its predecessor, Citius, Altius, Fortius through 2012.
[Description from ISOH]
NOTE: reference queries involving research charged $40/hour

Here’s an index to some older sports history journals available online. Seems like perhaps this should not be public, but there it is! And the full text of articles are available, but difficult to navigate (no search).



Sports and Recreation Participation


Summary

Forecast data for sports and recreation participation seems rare.

The USDA Forest Service has published a few 50-year forecasts of outdoor recreation participation. The forecasts are based on data from it’s semi-regular National Survey on Recreation and the Environment. However, the only national-level forecast I’ve seen was published in 1999. I’ve emailed the authors to inquire if more recent national forecasts have been made. (Forecasts for the southern region of the US have been made as recently as 2013).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes 10-year job outlook and employment change forecasts for professional athletes. The latest figures were published December 2015.

Beyond these two forecasts, I’ve found a couple sources for historic sports participation data: the Sports & Fitness Industry Association’s “Sports Participation in America” and ”Trends in Team Sports Report” (tidbits available through press releases going back to 2007); The Physical Activity Council Report (data for 2010-2015 available, possibly going back to 2000 – emailed for more info); United Health Foundation’s annual “American’s Health Rankings” survey; the National Federation of State High School Associations’ “Athletics Participation Survey” (annual data available 1971-2014).

Data and Excerpts

Non-Professional Adult Participation

The most significant forecast data I’ve found comes from the USDA Forest Service, via a 1999 publication. Later forecasts have been made for specific regions of the US. This is the only set of national-level forecasts I’ve found.

The publication gives projections of future recreation participation (by millions of participants aged 16 and over) and consumption (by millions of days annually and by millions of primary purpose trips taken) at lo-year intervals beginning in 2000 and ending in 2050. Projections for 24 specific outdoor activities and sports are grouped as following: winter, water, wildlife, dispersed land, and developed land. The projections are given as indexes, based on the year 1995.

Two types of regional cross-sectional models were used:
– a logistic regression model (for participation)
– a negative binomial form of a count data model (for consumption)

I’ve aggregated the forecasts in this table.

The data in these projections comes from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE), which has been collected since 1960 (originally as the National Recreation Survey). The survey has been conducted in 1960, 1965, 1970, 1972, 1977, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1999-2001, 2005-2011 (although this report only reflects data through the 94-95 survey).

Src: J.M. Bowker, Donald B.K. English, H. Ken Cordell. 1999. “Projections Of Outdoor Recreation Participation To 2050.” In Outdoor Recreation in American Life.

Note: Emailed the authors, Bowker and Cordell March 14, 2016, to inquire about subsequent national-level projections. No reply received.

*

Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA) reports

The SFIA (formerly the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association, or SGMA) has published an annual report called “Sports Participation in America” since 2000 (data going back to 1999). The report describes participation levels in over 100 sports, recreation, and outdoor activities. Each report includes a general breakdown of the number of Americans aged 6 and older who participated in at least one of the covered sports frequently, occassionally (later: regularly or casually), or did not participate in any.

Here’s an example of the chart from the report published in 2004:
SGMA-04-participation-breakdown
Src:
SGMA. 2004. “Sports Participation in America: 2004 Edition.” file name: Sports Part in Am 2004.pdf

I’ve seen data like the above from 1999-2003, and 2008, which is aggregated in this table, in columns C, and E-F. [Sources given in the comments for each cell.] The participation reports also gives a variety of other statistics describing the growth in participation in individual sports, including participation differences correlated with demographic characteristics.

In addition to the participation report, SFIA also publishes data describing core participants in team sports (”Trends in Team Sports Report” — tidbits available through press releases going back to 2007). The distinction of “core” indicates frequent and regular players (the threshold varies by sport/activity). This is the largest collection of core sports participation I’ve found:

Team Sports Core Participation (in thousands)

click for larger
Via: Hotel News Now, May 28, 2013

Note: Emailed Corey Bockhaus, cbockhaus@sfia.org, research@sfia.org, 3/14 to ask about older and more recent data like above. Hoping he can fill the gap in general participation data from 2004-2007, and 2009+.

*

2016 Physical Activity Council Report

Annual study tracking participation in over 120 sports. The PAC report gives overall statistics (percentages and raw figures), as well as sport-specific statistics (raw figures, and annual change percentages).

“The overall levels of inactivity decreased marginally in the last 12 months from 28.3% of Americans age six and older in 2014 to 27.7% in 2015. However, there are still 81.6 million inactive Americans.”

PAC-inactives2010-2015

“Inactivity decreased for most age groups, with 13 to 17 year olds having the biggest drop (1.4%) and 35 to 44 year olds having the lowest decrease (0.2%) in 2015. While those Americans between the ages of 45 to 54 remained flat in inactivity, there was a gradual increase in inactivity for 55 to 64 year olds.”

212.6 million “actives” taking part in a wide range of sports and fitness activities in 2015, a slight increase from 209.3 actives in 2014.

Total Participation Rate by Activity Category, 2015
Fitness Sports 61.5%
Outdoor Sports 48.4%
Individual Sports 34.8%
Team Sports 23.1%
Racquet Sports 13.5%
Water Sports 14.2%
Winter Sports 7.4%

 

Activity Category Segmented by Generations, 2015
Individual Sports Racquet Sports Team Sports Outdoor Sports Winter Sports Water Sports Fitness Sports
Gen Z (2000+) 48.2% 18.8% 58.8% 61.8% 13.1% 17.5% 50.6%
Millennials (1980-1999) 43.6% 20.2% 31.8% 57.4% 12.2% 20.3% 66.7%
Gen X (1965-1979) 36.9% 13.4% 17.9% 51.4% 7.0% 14.8% 66.2%
Boomers (1945-1964) 24.1% 7.1% 6.4% 38.6% 2.9% 9.2% 60.0%

 

Fitness and Activity-Related Spending over a 5-year Span, 2015
(% of people who spent on)
Sports/recreation footwear 45.3%
Sports/recreation clothing 44%
Outdoor recreation activities 39.5%
Sports/recreation equipment 34.9%
Gym/membership fees 29.3%
Travel to take part in sports & recreation 28.1%
Team sports outside of school 25%
Team sports at school 20.2%
Individual sports events 19.7%
Lessons/instruction/sports camps 19.3%
Winter sports 17.9%

Based on 32,658 online interviews with a 95% confidence level. A weighting technique was used to balance the data to reflect the total US population ages six and above. The total population figure used was 294,141,894 people ages six and older.

“Inactivity” is defined to include those participants who reported no physical activity in 2015 and an additional
18 sports/fitness activities that require minimal to no physical exertion.

Contributions from International Health, Racquet and Sportsclub Association, The National Golf Foundation, The Outdoor Foundation, The Snowsports Industries America, The Sports and Fitness Industry Association, The Tennis Industry Association, and United States Tennis Association

The report indicates that data have been collected since 2000, but the report only shows figures going back to 2010.

Note: I’ve emailed to inquire about pre-2010 data (March 9, 2016, info@sportsmarketingsurveysusa.com).

Src: Physical Activity Council. March 1, 2016. “2016 Participation Report.”

*

Adults reporting no physical activity or
exercise outside of work in last 30 days
2015 22.6%
2014 25.3%
2013 22.9%
2012 26.2%
2011 23.9%
2010 23.8%
2009 24.6%
2008 22.6%
2007 22.6%
2006 23.8%
2005 22.5%
2004 22.7%
2003 24.1%
2002 25.4%
2001 26.7%
2000 27.7%
1999 27.7%
1998 27.8%
1997 27.8%

Src: United Health Foundation. “United States Physical Inactivity (1997-2015).” Accessed March 16, 2016.

*

Professional Participation

BLS – Athletes and Sports Competitors

2014
Median Pay – $43,350/year
Number of Jobs – 13,700
Job Outlook 2014-2024 – 6% (as fast as average for all occupations)
Employment change 2014-2024 – 800 more jobs
Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook. “Athletes and Sports Competitors.” Summary. December 17, 2015.

Year Total Employment
1999 10,620
2000 9,920
2001 10,520
2002 10,400
2003 11,840
2004 12,250
2005 12,230
2006 12,500
2007 12,670
2008 13,960
2009 13,620
2010 12,660
2011 12,630
2012 12,450
2013 13,880
2014 11,520
2015 11,710

Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Statistics. “OES Data.” 1999-May 2015.
and
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Statistics. “27-2021: Athletes and Sports Competitors.”

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Student/Youth Participation

The National Federation Of State High School Associations has conducted its annual “Athletics Participation Survey” since 1971. The survey is completed by high schools with membership in the NFHS and its member associations.

NFHS1971-2015-sports-participation
Src: National Federation of State High School Associations. “2014-15 High School Athletics Participation Survey Results.” Page 55 (page 3 of this PDF).

Press release for 2014-15 school year available here.
Excerpt:
“Based on figures from the 51 NFHS member state high school associations, which includes the District of Columbia, the number of participants in high school sports reached an all-time high of 7,807,047 – an increase of 11,389 from the previous year.”

Participation data for recent individual years available are available on the NFHS website at the “Participation Statistics” page.

Note: 3/9 Emailed Bruce Howard to ask what percentage of high school students participate in sports, and what percentage of high schools participate in their survey.

*

Among 6- to 17-year-olds, the average number of team sports played per participant has fallen 5.9 percent in the last five years, dropping from 2.14 to 2.01, according to the SFIA.

Tracking The Changes In Youth Sports Participation
(Participants by ages 6-17, thousands)
2009 2014 % Change
Baseball 7,012 6,711 -4.3%
Basketball 10,404 9,694 -6.8%
Field hockey 438 370 -15.5%
Football (tackle) 3,962 3,254 -17.9%
Football (touch) 3,005 2,032 -32.4%
Gymnastics 2,510 2,809 11.9%
Ice hockey 517 743 43.7%
Lacrosse 624 804 28.8%
Rugby 150 301 100.7%
Soccer (indoor) 2,456 2,172 -11.6%
Soccer (outdoor) 8,360 7,656 -8.4%
Softball (fast-pitch) 988 1,004 1.6%
Softball (slow-pitch) 1,827 1,622 -11.2%
Track and field 2,697 2,417 -10.4%
Volleyball (court) 3,420 2,680 -21.6%
Volleyball (sand/beach) 532 652 22.6%
Wrestling 1,385 805 -41.9%

Src: SFIA, via Sports Business Daily, “2014 Trends in Team Sports,” August 10, 2015

Press release for the 2013 Trends in Team Sports available here
[no press releases for more recent reports]
Excerpt:
“Compared to 2011, which saw an increase in only 5 of the 24 sports, the surge in core participation in the most current U.S. Trends in Team Sports Report is proof of the growing trend of specialization in team sports. While there are more quality participants (core), the report also reveals the decrease in overall (casual) team sports participants over the last five years. Since 2008, team sports have lost 16.1 million participants or 11.1% of all team participants, measured by those who played at least once a year.”

2007 Edition excerpts
“While 31.6 million U.S. children (age 6-17) participate in team sports on a ‘frequent’, ‘regular’, or ‘casual’ basis, nearly 19 million U.S. children do not participate in team sports at all.”

“900,000 17-year olds played basketball in 2006 which means 17.9% of all 17-year olds played basketball in 2006.”
Src: SFIA. 2007. “U.S. Trends in Team Sports 2007 Edition.”