Extrapolations

This is a collection of long-term forecasts based on quantitative data from diverse sectors. Long-term means 20 years or more. Diverse means forecasts in a wide range of activities such as transportation, education, food, shelter, entertainment, technology, etc. You can help grow the collection. Please check our list of desired indicators and submit suggestions to extrapolations@kk.org. We're also collecting and crossposting any and all attempts to extrapolate the future on Tumblr and Pinterest. You can follow us on Twitter too.

Homes: Space Use, Moves, Bandwidth


The following indicators describe how people use the space in their homes, how frequently they move, and how internet-connected households are.

Descriptions of the way people use the space in their homes are largely qualitative and general. Some historical surveys describe general differences in home design and space use from one historic period to another, but these surveys are not quantitative. In the early 20th century, there were a few time-use and space-use studies conducted by home economists, but I’ve not seen a single source that aggregates the data from different geographic zones, and I’m not aware of any contemporary surveys. These early 20th-century studies, which mostly focused on kitchens, informed the development of minimum standards, which continued to evolve into the middle and later part of the century. Again, I’ve found single instances of minimum standard recommendations, but no historical quantitative comparisons of how the standards have evolved. I’ve come across one 10-year and one 20-year outlook describing general changes in housing plans, which may be on-going.

Historic fixed-line broadband subscriptions are available from the UN’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 2000-2014. Pew surveys going back to 2000 show that home broadband adoption has plateaued between 2013 and 2015. A 2009 Technology Futures broadband forecast to 2020 also shows predicts plateauing starting from about 2015. Cisco has published a four-year forecast of broadband speeds to 2019.

The US Census Bureau estimated the number of times a typical American will move in 2007. FiveThirtyEight updated that estimate in 2013. It may be possible to calculate this figure for previous years using older Census data. Historic estimates of the number of people moving each year are available from the Census going back to 1948.

Use of Rooms/Space

Moya K. Mason. 2009.
Housing: Then, Now, and Future
(date inferred via Internet Archive)
This is a general overview describing changes in the size and utilization of residential spaces, from the 18th century to present. The author has also collected excerpts from their sources here.

Ebby Halliday, REALTORS. 2009.
Residential Housing 2030 and Beyond
This is an outline of a focus group conversation among 25-to-40-year-olds discussing their present housing needs, and anticipated needs in the next 20 years. Very rough notes. Appears to be a consensus for smaller square footage of homes with larger, multi-purpose rooms, and larger back yards. This document was presented at the 2009 conference “North Texas Alternative Futures” in Irving, Texas, an on-going series sponsored by the Urban Land Institute.

Residential: Embracing New Lifestyles
Section in 2016 Gensler Design Forecast — Lifestyle
Gensler is a global architecture, design, and planning firm.
10-year outlook for trends in residential building. Brief, and highly qualitative. Communal housing (cohousing), with shared amenities, will become acceptable to post-college adults, single parents, and the elderly. Changes in work style and lifestyle will increase the need for part-time housing. Mixed-use developments will increasingly include housing. “Uburbs,” midway between the city and suburbs, are an emerging residential market.
TO-DO: CONTACT GENSLER TO INQUIRE IF THIS IS AN ON-GOING FORECAST, AND THE DATE OF THE OLDEST.

*

EMAILED ARTHUR C. NELSON
Professor of Urban Planning and Real Estate Development, Univ. Arizona
HE WAS INTERESTED IN THE TOPIC, BUT NOT AWARE OF ANY SOURCES

*

Other possible sources:

The American Institute of Architects

Virginia Tech College of Architecture & Urban Studies

Georgia Institute of Technology College of Architecture

Design Futures Council (DFC)

American Society of Interior Designers
contact:
David Krantz
Vice President, Research and Knowledge Management
dkrantz@asid.org
EMAILED 6/1 – REPLIED SAYING NO IMMEDIATE LEADS, BUT HE’LL LOOK INTO IT

Interior Design Society

Designer Society of America

Certified Interior Decorators

University of Illinois Small Homes Council-Building Research Council

US Minimum Property Standards

Best Interior Design Graduate Schools, Design Intelligence
(DFC)
Savannah College of Art and Design
Pratt Institute
Rhode Island School of Design
EMAILED LILIANE WONG 6/2, HEAD OF THE INTERIOR ARCH DEPT
Kansas State University
New York School of Interior Design

Best Architecture Graduate Schools, Design Intelligence
(DFC)
Harvard Univ
Cornell Univ
EMAILED KATHLEEN GIBSON 6/2, WHO MAINTAINS THEIR INTYPES DATABASE
SHE’S ON SABATICAL THROUGH 2017
EMAILED JAN JENNINGS 6/2, WHO FOUNDED THE INTYPES DB
SHE HAS NO SUGGESTIONS
Yale Univ
Columbia Univ
MIT
UC Berkeley
EMAILED PAUL GROTH 6/2
HE RECOMMENDS ASKING Richard Longstreth (GWU) AND URBAN LAND INST
TO-DO: FOLLOW UP WITH THESE LEADS
U. Michigan
Rice Univ.
Virginia Tech
EMAILED KATHLEEN PARROTT 6/1
Washington Univ. St. Louis

*

Interior Designer Jobs
Number of Jobs, 2014 — 58,900
Job Outlook, 2014-24 — 4% (Slower than average [which is about 7%])
Employment Change, 2014-24 — 2,200
src:
Interior Designers.” 2014. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2016-17 Edition.

Note: This 4% growth is a significant slowing from the BLS’s 2010 estimate of 19% job growth from 2010 to 2020 [average at the time].
Number of Jobs, 2010 — 56,500
src:
Interior Designers.” 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2012-13 Edition. Via Internet Archive.

*

Virginia Tech conducted survey-based research in 2000 examining what people do in their kitchens, they have in them, what kind of cooks they are, and what they want from their kitchens.

I don’t think the survey has been updated, and the research summary does not contain much specific historic information, but I’ve written to the lead author to inquire about historic data and forecasts. EMAILED 6/1.

Excerpts:

What do people do in their kitchens? What types of cooks are they? What do they have in their kitchens and how do they react to the design, layout, convenience, and function of their existing kitchens? And perhaps most importantly, what does this tell us about how to plan and design the kitchens of the future?

In an effort to answer these questions, a multi-stage research project was developed. First, a content analysis of shelter, design, and kitchen magazines investigated current trends and features of kitchen design. Then a local sample of over 75 cooks was brought to the Center for Real Life Kitchen Design at Virginia Tech. These cooks were interviewed about their home kitchens and how they used them. The cooks were measured and then videotaped cooking a meal. Finally, a national telephone survey with 630 respondents gathered broad information about kitchens and cooks from around the country.

Household Characteristics
Who participated in the research project? The local and national samples were similar in their demographic make-up. In addition:

*A majority of the respondents in both samples (over 90%) were from households of fewer than four people. The most common types of households were a family or adult couple (approximately 1/3 each).
*Both samples included more females than males, within a wide variety of age and income brackets.
*Approximately 75% of each sample lived in single-family residences they owned. There was not a dominance of any particular age or size of residence.
*The national sample was equally divided among small town, rural, city and suburban residences.

Key conclusions from the study can be grouped into categories: what people do in their kitchens, who is cooking, how people cook, what people have in their kitchens, and what people want in their kitchens.

People have many small appliances (an average of 12 per household).
Some small appliances are stored on counter tops (four is typical).

src:
“Someone’s in the Kitchen… – A summary of the Findings of the Kitchen Space and Storage Research Projects.”
Kathleen Parrott, Ph.D., CKE
JoAnn Emmel, Ph.D.
Julia Beamish, Ph.D., CKE
Center for Real Life Kitchen Design
Department of Apparel, Housing, and Resource Management
Virginia Tech
Accessed June 1, 2016. This page was published in 2015, but the research was conducted in 2000, per this new release. The research informed a 2007 text book, Kitchen Planning, referenced below.

contact:
Kathleen Parrott — homes@vt.edu

*

One-off study from 1963 with household storage minimums (specific recommended minimums for closets, clothes closets, linen closets, kitchen storage, access, and general storage). Unable to find a contemporary equivalent.

src:
Rudard A. Jones. July 1963.
Household Storage Study.
Research Report 13-1
University Of Illinois
Small Homes Council — Building Research Council

Several other “universal design” papers and recommendations have been published throughout the 20th century (for example, [DeMerchant & Beamish, 1995]).

http://www.housingeducators.org/Journals/H%26S_Vol_22_No_1-2_Universal_Design_in_Residential_Spaces.pdf

This trend toward recommended standards began in the 1930s when home economists with USDA started systematically researching and documenting the use of time and space in homes (especially kitchens) as a way of improving rural housing conditions. Results of many early USDA time-use surveys are [available here].

https://www.nal.usda.gov/exhibits/ipd/apronsandkitchens/exhibits/show/time-use/research-tools

Some home design books include discussion of recent home design trends. For example, [Kitchen Planning (NKBA, 2013)], includes discussion of general housing trends and consumer preferences, drawing upon recent surveys by NAHB, Better Homes and Gardens, and the American Institute of Architects. This work also includes a very general description of older kitchen and work-area research studies (like the USDA’s, mentioned above). However, the discussion focuses on the current demand, and does not give detailed attention to the pace of the change. TO-DO: IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO MINE THE SURVEYS AND REPORTS REFERENCED IN NKBA 2013 FOR SPECIFIC STANDARDS FROM THE 1930S, 1950S, 1970S, 1990S, AND 2000S TO CHART THE METRIC EVOLUTION OF THE STANDARDS. THE CHAPTER DOES INCLUDE A NARRATIVE SUMMARY OF CHANGES BY DECADE FROM 1900 THROUGH THE 21ST CENTURY (MY PREVIEW TOPS OUT AFTER THE 1920S SUMMARY).

References include:
Beecher & Stowe 1869
Frederick 1913
Deane G. Carter 1932 — AES bulletin
Maud Wilson 1938 “The Willamette Valley Farm Kitchen”
Maud Wilson 1947b “Considerations in Planning Kitchen Cabients”
Heiner and McCullough 1948 “Functional Kitchen Storage”
Small Homes Council (SHC) 1949 “Cabinet Space for the Kitchen”
McCullough 1949
Heiner and Steidel 1951
Howard 1965
Kapple 1964; Wanslow 1965
Jones and Kapple 1975
Yust and Olsen 1992 “Residential Kitchens: Planning Principles for the ‘90s”
Cheever 1992 “Utensil Survey Project”
NOTE: THIS WORK FOUND THAT THE NUMBER OF ITEMS STORED IN THE KITCHEN HAD INCREASED 110% FROM THE NUMBER REPORTED IN 1948 (BY HEINER AND MCCULLOUGH).
Emmel, Beamish and Parrott 2001 “Someone’s in the Kitchen”
NAHB 2011
“New Homes in 2015 Will be Smaller, Greener and More Casual.”
Sullivan 2010
“Home Sizes Continue to Shrink.”
Better Homes and Gardens survey
Baker 2010
“Small Talk: Kitchens and Baths Do More With Less”
search for ref to AIA survey

Frequency of Moves

How many times will a typical American move in their life?

2007 – 11.7
2013 – 11.3

US Census Bureau doesn’t ask directly, but it calculates this figure based on which age groups are most likely to move in a given year and the overall composition of the US population.

src:
Mona Chalabi. January 29, 2015.
How Many Times Does The Average Person Move?
FiveThirtyEight

TO-DO: FIND/COMPUTE THIS FIGURE USING CENSUS DATA FOR PREVIOUS YEARS.
The Census Bureau describes their methodology here.

The move data comes from the American Community Survey, questions about “State-to-State Migration Flows.”

Tables are available from 2005 through 2014 at the American Factfinder portal.

Data is also available from the decennial censuses going back to 1940, links below.

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980 (page 85+)

1990-1999

2014-2015

*

census-movers-move-rate-1948-2015

Note: Slightly different from 2007 and 2013 values suggested above

census-type-of-move-1948-2015

src:
CPS Historical Migration/Geographic Mobility Tables” 2015.
US Census Bureau.
Figure A-1.1
Figure A-1.2

*

A 2014 white paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research argues that, since the 1980s, Americans are moving less because they’re changing jobs less often.

NBER-long-run-migration-decline

Using data from the Current Population Survey, US Census.

NBER-decline-in-job-transitions

Using data from National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth from the late 1970s to the late 2000s

TO-DO: CHECK IF THE ANNUAL DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NBER PAPER. THE PAPER IS FREE FOR JOURNALISTS TO DOWLOAD, BUT WE NEED TO COMPLETE REGISTRATION (PENDING AS OF 6/2).

src:
Raven Molloy, et al. April 2014.
Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
via:
Richard Florida. April 28, 2014.
Why Americans Are Moving Less: New Jobs Aren’t Worth It.
CityLab — The Atlantic

Bandwidth to Homes

U.S. Fixed-broadband subscriptions, 2000-2014

Aggregated in the following Google Sheet:

src:
ITU. 2015.
U.S. Fixed-broadband subscriptions.
via the ITU Statistics page

*

Pew finds that home broadband use has plateaued

pew-home-broadband-users-2000-2015

Pew also finds that several groups are shifting their home internet connectivity away from broadband and toward smartphones.

pew-smartphones-replacing-broadband-2013-2015

src:
Pew Research Center. December 2015.
Home Broadband 2015.

*

In 2002, Technology Futures published several forecasts of residential broadband subscriptions and speeds looking out to 2020. The base model forecast is informed by the Gompertz model, which is usually followed by major consumer adoptions.

tfi-online-and-broadband-households-forecast-1990-2020

The forecasts are notably off from the Pew and ITU reports above. However, one of the historical comparisons in the paper, to Pay Cable adoption, might help to explain the problem with their own forecast for broadband subscriptions.

tfi-consumer-adoptions-broadband-comparison

Pay Cable’s adoption figures from 1973-1981 do not follow the Gompertz model because of a disruption by VCR adoption. Home broadband subscriptions may be experiencing a similar disruption by mobile devices with internet subscriptions.

src:
Lawrence K. Vanston, et al. 2002.
Residential Broadband Forecasts.
Technology Futures Inc.
contact: lvanston@tfi.com

In 2009, Technology Futures published an updated broadband forecast to 2020:

tfi-broadband-subscriptions-forecast-2009-update

tfi-residential-broadband-wireless-subs-2009-update

tfi-residential-access-rates-2009-update

tfi-hdtv-households-2009-update

src:
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ray L. Hodges. February 2009.
Forecasts for the US Telecommunications Network.
Telektronikk 3/4.2008.

*

Chart 3: Actual download speeds by ISP, 2011 to 2014

fcc-download-speeds-2011-2014

Excerpt:

Chart 3 shows the actual download speeds experienced by each participating ISP’s subscribers — averaged across all analyzed speed tiers, geography, and time — from 2011 to 2014. The actual download speed, averaged across all participating ISPs, has tripled during this period, from approximately 10 Mbps in March 2011, to approximately 15 Mbps in September 2012, to nearly 31 Mbps in September 2014.

src:
FCC. December 30, 2015.
2015
Measuring Broadband America Fixed Broadband Report.

*

Table 4. Fixed Broadband Speeds (in Mbps), 2014–2019, North America
2014 — 21.8
2015 — 25.4
2016 — 28.7
2017 — 33.7
2018 — 38.7
2019 — 43.7
CAGR 2014-2019 — 15%

Excerpt:
Broadband speed is a crucial enabler of IP traffic. Broadband speed improvements result in increased consumption and use of high-bandwidth content and applications. The global average broadband speed continues to grow and will more than double from 2014 to 2019, from 20.3 Mbps to 42.5 Mbps. Table 4 shows the projected broadband speeds from 2014 to 2019. Several factors influence the fixed broadband speed forecast, including the deployment and adoption of fiber to the home (FTTH), high-speed DSL, and cable broadband adoption, as well as overall broadband penetration. Among the countries covered by this study, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden lead in terms of broadband speed largely due to their wide deployment of FTTH.

Note: North America is tied with Central and Eastern Europe for the lowest CAGR.

src:
Cisco. June 23, 2015.
The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis.

*

Census – Type of Household Internet Connection
2013 data here.
2013 is the first year of tracking
done under the American Community Survey (ACS)
Only other year with this data available is 2014.
The Current Population Survey (CPS) has asked about internet access since 1997.

*

statista-american-households-with-broadband-2007-2013

src:
Statista (original source hidden behind paywall)

Tags: , , , , , ,

Posted by Claudia Lamar on June 23, 2016 at 7:04 pm | comment count



Homes


Summary

This is a roundup of basic statistics describing American homes including homeownership rates, housing starts, second home ownership, urban vs. rural home distribution, housing features distribution, total households, and home sales/spending. Most of the data are historic, with a couple forecasts (for housing starts and total households).

Historic home ownership rates are available from the US Census Bureau from the present going back to 1965. Statistics broken down by age-group are available back to 1982.

Forecasts for housing starts are available to 2025 from Forisk. Much shorter one-year forecasts are available from the National Association of Home Builders. Historic housing starts data are available from the UC Census Bureau at least to 2000, possibly as far back as 1959 (TO DO: CHECK FOR OLDER DATA)

Decadal historic data for the number of vacation homes are available from 1940 to 2000 from the US Census Bureau. Biennial data for the number of seasonal homes from 1973 through 2005 have been aggregated by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). These figures just describe the number of second homes, but I’ve found a couple sources describing the number of households that own second homes (second home ownership rates). Statista has data for the number of people living in households that own second homes from 2008 to 2015. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has “other residential real estate” ownership rates broken down by a variety of demographic characteristics going back to 1989 (their survey is conducted every three years). The Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University (JCHS) has a comparison of second homeownership by age for 1995 and 2004 (using data from the Fed).

HUD has aggregated figures on the distribution of urban vs. rural housing from 1973 to 2005.

The US Census Bureau has a collection of housing features data for new single family homes, multifamily units, and multifamily buildings. Many of the data points go back to 1973, some only to 2005. Features tracked include square footage, number of stories, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, number of fireplaces, type of heating system, type of heating fuel, type of foundation, type of parking, outdoor features, lot size, number of units sold by price. Figures include the total number of houses/units, and the percentage distribution.

Statista has figures on the total number of US households from 1960 to 2015. The JCHS has a forecast (based on Census data) to 2035 for total households, as well as households by age, race, and occupancy relationships (single, married, families, etc).

NAHB has a line chart showing the number of new single-family homes sold from 1978-2012. Annual numeric values for 2011-2015 are available in a separate NAHB document. Data points for previous individual years may be available from NAHB upon request. In any case, the Census has data on new residential sales going back to 1963. Census also has median and average sales prices for new homes sold back to 1963, and type of financing for houses sold back to 1988. NAHB has an indexed comparison between residential construction spending for single-family homes, multifamily units, and improvements from 2000 through 2016.

Findings

Ownership vs Renting

Homeownership Rates for the US and Regions: 1965 to Present

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (CPS/HVS)
Historical Tables
“Table 14. Quarterly Homeownership Rates for the U.S. and Regions: 1965 to Present”

and imported to this Google Sheet.

*

Annual Homeownership Rates for the United States and Regions, 1968-2015

census-homeownership-rates-1968-2015

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Series H-111.

*

Annual Homeownership Rates for the United States by Age Group, 1982-2015

census-homeownership-by-age-1982-2015

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Series H-111.

Housing Starts

Forisk-Housing-Starts-Outlook-2013-2025

Forisk provides consulting services to the forest industry, wood bioenergy and timberland investing sectors.

src:
Brooks Mendell. April 22, 2016. “Forisk Forecast: US Housing Starts Outlook, Q2 2016 Update.” Forisk.

*

2011-2017 Housing Starts, New Single Family Sales, Existing Single-Family Home Sales, Interest Rates

src:
NAHB. “Housing and Interest Rate Forecasts
Accessed May 16, 2016 via the NAHB Forecasts page.
Exported to this Google Sheet.

*

New Housing Units Started in the United States

census-total-housing-starts-2000-2015

Note: Possible to infer multifamily starts from this chart by subtracting the single-family starts from total starts.

src:
New Residential Construction
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.

Data likely comes from one of these time series, for example, which go back to 1959.

Second Homes

Vacation Homes – United States, 1940-2000 (decadal data only)

Aggregated in the following Google Sheet.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 20, 2016.
Historical Census of Housing Tables: Vacation Homes

Note: the Census Bureau has annual data in individual annual reports, but this is the best aggregation I’ve found so far.

*

Eggers-housing-stock-1973vs2005

Excerpt:

Year-round units are either occupied or vacant. Note that “occupied” and “vacant” have precise definitions that do not coincide exactly with the common understanding of these words. A house may have one or more persons living in it, but if those persons typically reside somewhere else, the house is considered vacant from the perspective of the AHS. The decennial censuses use the same logic because this approach ensures that every household has one and only one place where it “resides,” and the approach also results in the number of households being equal to the number of occupied housing units.

Using this logic, a unit is vacant if it is not the “usual residence” of some household. Defined this way, a vacant unit is in some sense an excess unit—like having more chairs than children in a game of musical chairs. Table 1 shows that vacant units grew almost twice as fast as households between 1973 and 2005. This fact, combined with the growth in seasonal units, accounts for the increase in the ratio of housing units to households.

Data points aggregated in the following Google Sheet.

src:
Frederick J. Eggers, et al. October 2007.
32 Years of Housing Data.” P.4-5, A2-A8
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

*

Second home ownership: Number of people living in households that own a second home in the United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2015 (in millions)

statista-second-home-ownership-2008-2015

This statistic illustrates the number of people living in households that own a second home in the United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2015. In spring 2008, the number of people who said they live in a household that own a second home in the United States (USA) amounted to around 12.60 million.

src:
Statista (source hidden). Accessed May 23, 2016.
Second home ownership: Number of people living in households that own a second home in the United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2015 (in millions)

Note: I suspect the data either comes from the Census Bureau or the Survey of Consumer Finances, but I haven’t found the exact report/indicator.

*

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-age
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-age-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-family-structure
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-family-structure-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-education
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-education-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-work-status
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-work-status-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-occupation
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-occupation-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-urbanicity
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-urbanicity-data

fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-housing-status
fed-percent-families-with-other-residential-real-estate-by-housing-status-data

src:
Survey of Consumer Finances. September 2, 2014.
2013 SCF Chartbook.” The 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances.
The Federal Reserve.
P.651-683

*

JCHS-second-homeownership-by-age-1995vs2004

src:
Eric S. Belsky, et al. 2006.
Multiple-Home Ownership and the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand.
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University.
citing Survey of Consumer Finances

Note: The source explains that the American Household Survey, the Housing Vacancy Survey, and the decennial Census all include estimates of the number of second home units. Surveys that ask households about whether they own additional properties include: The American Housing Survey; the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF); the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and industry surveys such as one of new homebuyers conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (2000) and by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) of homebuyers and homeowners. However, the SCF, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank, is the only survey conducted on a regular basis (every three years).

Urban/Rural Distribution of Homes

census-urban-rural-housing-disto-1973-2005

Excerpt:

Figure 3 traces the changing shares of the housing stock in “outside metropolitan” areas, in suburbs, and in central cities. The over-the-period changes coincide with expectations; the suburban share is substantially larger in 2005, while the shares in central cities and outside metropolitan areas are smaller. However, the trends are not smooth. The share outside metropolitan areas falls sharply between 1983 and 1985, and the central city share generally declines except for a one-time increase between 1983 and 1985. The discontinuities between 1983 and 1985 result from the introduction of new definitions of metropolitan area—changes that increased the population in central cities and suburbs at the expense of the non-metropolitan population. By 2005, suburbs accounted for 47 percent of the housing stock, central cities for 29 percent, and outside metropolitan areas for 24 percent.

src:
Frederick J. Eggers, et al. October 2007.
32 Years of Housing Data.” P.7.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Features

Highlights of Annual 2014 Characteristics of New Housing

Summary of characteristics for new single family homes, multifamily units, and multifamily buildings in 2014.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.
Highlights of Annual 2014 Characteristics of New Housing
*

For the data from the US Census Bureau below, the following definitions may be relevant:
RSE/SE – Relative Standard Error (percent), Standard Error (percentage points)
NA – Not available
A – Represents an RSE or SE that is greater or equal to 100 percent or could not be computed
Z – Less than 500 units or less than 0.5 percent
S – Withheld because estimate did not meet publication standards on the basis of response rate
or a consistency review

The Census data below is all also accessible through the Census Bureau’s “New Single-Family Homes in 2014” interactive graphic. Data for completed (but not necessarily sold) home are also available via that graphic.

Principal Type of Exterior Wall Material of New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-ext-wall-type-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

Note 1: Includes concrete block, stone, aluminum siding, and other types.
Data prior to 2005 include fiber cement. Data prior to 1992 include vinyl siding.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Principal Type of Exterior Wall Material of New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Square Feet of Floor Area in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1999-2014

census-sq-ft-floor-area-new-single-fam-homes-sold-1999-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Square Feet of Floor Area in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Stories in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 2005-2014

census-stories-new-single-fam-homes-sold-2005-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Stories in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Bedrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold
1973-2014

census-bedroom-count-new-single-family-homes-sold-1973-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Bedrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Bathrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-bathrooms-new-single-fam-homes-sold-1978-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Bathrooms in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Presence of Air-Conditioning in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-aircon-new-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Presence of Air-Conditioning in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of Fireplaces in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-fireplaces-new-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of Fireplaces in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Heating System Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-heating-new-single-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

Note 1: Includes both air source and geothermal (ground source) versions.
Note 2: Includes electric baseboard, panel, radiant heat, space heater, floor or wall furnace, solar, and other types.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Heating System Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Heating Fuel Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1985-2014

census-heating-fuel-new-single-family-homes-sold-1985-2014

Note 1: Includes natural gas and bottled or liquified petroleum gas (including propane).
Note 2: Includes heating oil and kerosene.
Note 3: Includes wood, coal, solar, and other types. Beginning in 2014, also includes heating oil and kerosene.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Heating Fuel Used in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Foundation in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1978-2014

census-foundation-new-family-homes-sold-1978-2014

Note 1: Includes raised supports such as pilings and piers, and other types.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Foundation in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Type of Parking Facility of New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1986-2014

census-parking-new-single-family-homes-sold-1986-2014

Note 1: Prior to 1992, data included 2 cars or more.

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Type of Parking Facility of New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Presence of Outdoor Features in New Single-Family Houses Sold, 2010-2014.

census-outdoor-features-new-single-family-homes-sold-2010-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Presence of Outdoor Features in New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Lot Size of New Single-Family Houses Sold, 1976-2014

census-lot-size-new-single-family-homes-sold-1976-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Lot Size of New Single-Family Houses Sold.” P.1.

*

Number of New Single-Family Houses Sold by Sales Price, 2002-2014

census-sale-price-new-family-homes-sold-2002-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 16, 2016.
Number of New Single-Family Houses Sold by Sales Price and Location.” P.1.

*

Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Number of Units Per Building, 1972-2014

census-multifamily-units-per-building-1972-2014

Also available in the PDF linked below: Multifamily units completed for Rent vs Sale, 1999-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.
Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Number of Units Per Building

*

Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Square Feet per Unit, 1999-2014

census-multifamily-units-completed-sq-ft-1999-2014

src:
US Census Bureau. Accessed May 18, 2016.
Number of Multifamily Units Completed by Square Feet per Unit

*

More characteristics of units in multifamily units and buildings available from the US Census Bureau, here: Multifamily Units, Multifamily Buildings

*

American Housing Survey

Survey run since 1973, but haven’t found a source for aggregated historic data

All annual reports available here.

Indicators present in the 1973 report

Number of all housing units (numbers back to 1970)
Number of unites in structure (back to 1973)
Median number of rooms per unit (total, owner, renter)
Percent with two bedrooms (total, owner, renter)
Percent with 3 bedrooms or more (total, owner, renter)
Percent with 1.01 or more persons per room (total, owner, renter)
2-or-more-person households (total, owner, renter)
male head-wife present, no nonrelatives (total, owner, renter)
other male head (total, owner, renter)
female head (total, owner, renter)
1-person households (total, owner, renter)
owner-occupied unites (total, in central cities, no in central cities, non-metropolitan)
renter-occupied units (same as above)
Median value (1973 vs 1970)
Median gross rent (1973 vs 1970)
Median income (owner-occupied, renter-occupied, 1973 vs 1970)

src:
US Census Bureau. July 1975.
Annual Housing Survey: 1973 — Part A, General Characteristics

Households

Total Number of US Households 1960-2015 (in millions)
src: Statista. Accessed May 18, 2016.

Note: This /has to be/ Census data.

TO-DO: locate Census source and import data to a Google Sheet.

*

Households makeup forecast to 2035

Uses 2013 Census Bureau data to make 5-year projections from 2015 to 2035. Low, middle, and high projections given.

Includes households by age and race forecasts. Projects total households, married w/o children, married with children, partnered w/o children, partnered with children, single-parent w/o other adults, single-parent with other non-partner adults, single person households, and other households.

src:
Daniel McCue. March 2014.
Baseline Household Projections for the Next Decade and Beyond.
Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.

Click “Household Projection Tables” at the bottom of the page for the original Excel file. Also imported into this Google Sheet.

Home Sales and Spending

New Single-Family Home Sales
1978-2012 – chart with line only, no numeric figures for individual years
[NAHB-NewSFHSales-1978-2011.jpg]

src:
New Home Sales
NAHB, Accessed May 16, 2016

Annual Numeric values for 2011-2015 available here
src:
New and Existing Home Sales, U.S.
NAHB, April 25, 2016

US Census Bureau – New Residential Sales, Historical Data

linking out to…

Houses Sold by Region – Annual Data, 1963-2015

Includes US total for each year
src:
US Census Bureau

Houses for Sale by Region, 1963-2015

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States, 1963-2015

Houses Sold by Type of Financing, 1988-2015

Private Residential Construction Spending Index, 2000-2016
line chart with lines for
single-family
multifamily
improvements
Index, with 1/1/2000 as the base
Chart shows multifamily housing with the strongest growth in the last two years, improvements as the most stable over the whole period.

src:
Na Zhao. May 2, 2016. “Multifamily Spending Continues Record Breaking Pace.” NAHB Eye on Housing.

Posted by cc on June 9, 2016 at 11:13 pm | comment count



Video Games


Summary

The majority of the video games data I’ve found is historic, with a couple of one-off, short-term forecasts for mobile phone gamers by Statista (2011-2020), and another one-off forecast for 2008-2018 for daily time spent gaming by VSS. I’ve also seen a couple five-year industry revenues forecasts from Euromonitor and Pricewaterhouse Coopers (to 2019), but these figures are pretty well protected behind paywalls. NewZoo also forecasts audience and revenues for eSports to 2019, and they’re pretty open with their data, but these figures are global.

Releases per year historic data is available for 1971-2015 from Moby Games. I also found one Quora estimate for titles released 2003-2012, but this is a very rough approximate showing a trend that does not strictly agree with the Moby Games data.

The ESA publishes an annual “Essential Facts” report, which has recently included numeric estimates of the number of game players (2014). Older reports give percentages only. The indicators describing number of players have varied a bit from year to year, but some approximation is available for 2004 through the present. In addition to the ESA report, GameTrack has also issued a numeric estimate of the number of players, but just for 2012.

A few historic estimates of time spent gaming are available for 2011-2013 from Neilsen; 2008-2018 and 1995-2005 from VSS; 2014 from NPD Group; and 1999-2009 from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

I’ve found one website that provides fairly comprehensive eSports earnings information going back to 1998, including total prize money, tournaments, active players, US players, US earnings, etc.

Findings

Releases Per Year

A 2010 article describing the “death of the video game expert” as a result of the explosion in the number of games published per year refers to video game database MobyGames.com as its source for annual game release numbers. The article includes a chart through 2009, but doesn’t give the tallies for each year, so I’ve retrieved the information from MobyGames.

The simple tally for 1971-2015 is in this Google Sheet.

Note: This database includes substantially more titles than were reflected in the Quora answer below (in which data was gathered by hand from a variety of Wikipedia pages). I believe the MobyGames data to be more accurate.

Srcs:

Dana Laratta. April 8, 2010. “The Death of the Video Game Expert.” BitMob. via Internet Archive.

Game Browser — Year. MobyGames

*

A Quora researcher compiled data from various Wikipedia pages and found that in general there has been a decline in the number of releases per year from 2003 through 2012. Several commenters have theories on why this may be or corroborate the trend.
Trend:
Quora-games-per-year-graph
Raw numbers:
Quora-games-per-year-numbers

Src: David Cole. October 31, 2013. “On average, how many video games are released each year, by platform?” Quora.

I’m guessing the researcher probably mined these Wikipedia pages:
Category:Video games by year
Category: Video game lists by company

*

Since 1975 (through 2010), 547 films have given rise to around 2,000 video games, and film adaptations are now (2010) a category that accounts for some 10% of video games published.

src:
Alexix Blanchet. December 7, 2011. “A Statistical Analysis of the Adaptation of Films into Video Games

NOTE: IMAGE LINKS ARE BROKEN, BUT IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE HERE.
author email: alexis.blanchet@univ-paris3.fr
author website.

Video Game Players

Number of Americans aged 11+ who play video games

2012 – 68%, 165 million people

src:
GameTrack, via: Rachel Weber. Dec 11, 2012. “US Still the Gaming Super Power.” GamesIndustry.biz.

*

2014
155 million Americans play video games
4/5 of US households own a device to play video games
51% of US households own a dedicated game console
avg two gamers in each game-playing US household
42% of Americans play video games regularly (3 hours or more per week).
avg game player is 35 years old
26% are under 18
30% are 18-35
17% are 36-49
27% are 50+
56% of game players are male
44% of game players are female
women 18+ are 33% of gameplayers, boys 18- are only 15%
39% of the most frequent gamers play social games
top three types of games that the most frequent gamers play most often:
31% – social games
30% – action
30% – puzzle/board game/card game/game shows
top devices most frequent gamers use to play
PC – 62%
Dedicated console – 56%
Smartphone – 35%
Wireless device – 31%
Dedicated handheld system – 21%
56% of the most frequent gamers play with others
the most frequent gamers who play with others spend an average of
6.5 hrs per week playing with others online
5 hours per week playing with others in-person

src: The ESA, April 2015. “2015 Essential Facts.

2013 – 59% of Americans play video games
2012 – 58% of Americans play video games

srcs:
The ESA, October 2014. “2014 Essential Facts
and
The ESA, June 2013. “2013 Essential Facts

2011
49% of US households own a dedicated console

2010
72% of American households play computer or video games

2009
67% of American households play computer or video games

2008
68% of American households play computer or video games
43% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2007
65% of American households play computer or video games
42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2006
67% of American heads of households play computer or video games
41% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2005
69% of American heads of households play computer or video games
42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2004
75% of heads of households play computer or video games
47% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

Note: I believe the 2005 report (with data for 2004) was the first year the ESA started quantifying the number of players/playing households. The 2004 report (with data for 2003) does not include any such figures.

srcs:

The ESA. “2012 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2011 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2010 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2009 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2008 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2007 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2006 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2005 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2004 Essential Facts.

*

Number of mobile phone gamers in the US from 2011 to 2020 (in millions)
2011 – 80.7
2012 – 106.3
2013 – 129.3
2014 – 147.6
2015 – 164.9
2016 – 180.4 (forecast)
2017 – 192.2 (forecast)
2018 – 202.8 (forecast)
2019 – 209.5 (forecast)
2020 – 213 (forecast)

src:
Statista, citing eMarketer

# of Mobile Game Users (millions) – United States
2014 – 83.38
2015 – 95.56
2016 – 104.16
2017 – 112.189
2018 – 120.069
2019 – 125.022
2020 – 128.327

src: Krista Lofgren. February 8, 2016. “2016 Video Game Statistics & Trends Who’s Playing What & Why.” Big Fish Games.

Note: Big Fish Games produces and distributes casual games. These figures were not cited in the blog post in which they were given, but the author confirms by email that the data came from a Statista study on the Digital Market Outlook for video games.

Time Spent Gaming

Claimed weekly hours spent gaming on any platform (US gamers 13+)
2013 – 6.3 hours
2012 – 5.6 hours
2011 – 5.1 hours

src: Nielsen. May 27, 2014. “Multi-Platform Gaming: For The Win!

*

Time spent daily playing video games per capita
2008 – 17.8 min
2013 – 23.2 min
2018 – 28.3 min (forecast)

src: Veronis Suhler Stevenson & Borrell Assoicates (VSS), 2014, via Emmanuel Agu, et al. “Making Exergames Appealing” in “Handbook on Holistic Perspectives in Gamification for Clinical Pactice,” 2015.

*

daily time spent playing video games per capita in the US in 2018 expected to be 28.3

src:
LexInnova Technologies. July 1, 2014. “Godlike Gaming: A Landscape Analysis On The Future Of The Gaming Industry” p.5
NOTE: I suspect this report is referring to VSS data, although they’re not cited.

Hours per year spent playing video games (vs. reading)
1995 – 80 (100)
2000 – 140 (85)
2005 – 195 (80)

src: Estimated based on a chart citing Versonis Suhler Stevenson Communications Group. 2005. “2004 Communications Industry Forecast and Report.” adapted in: Lawrence Baines. 2008. “A Teacher’s Guide to Multisensory Learning.

Note: Converting the hours/year above to minutes/day would yield
1995 – 13.2
2000 – 23.0
2005 – 32.1

*

2014 – 34 million “core gamers” play core games on core devices an average of 22hrs/wk

These “core gamers” make up 12% of the total survey respondents (extrapolated to 34 million individuals ages 9+). This is down two percent from 14% of respondents in 2013.

Among the total surveyed population, 42% (extrapolated to 118 million individuals ages 9+) play on a core device. 19% (extrapoalted to 53 million) play 5+ hours per week on a core device.

“Core gamer”: individuals who play video games five or more hours per week on a PlayStation3, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC, or Mac, and who play Action, Adventure, Fighting, Flight, Massively Multi-Player, Racing, Real Time Strategy, Role-Plating, Shooter, or Sport genres on any of those devices.

src: NPD Group. May 13, 2014. “The NPD Group Reports 34 Million Core Gamers Spend an Average of 22 Hours per Week Playing Video Games
and
NPD Group. April 2014. “Core Gaming 2014 Snapshot Report.

*

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing video games
1999 – 26min/day
2004 – 49min/day
2009 – 1hr13min/day

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing games on computer
1999 – 12min/day
2004 – 19min/day
2009 – 17min/day

Note: this study also includes daily consumption figures for TV, music/audio, computer (including a games subcategory – don’t think this is included in the standalone video game consump figures), print media, movies

src:
Kaiser Family Foundation. January 2010. “Generation M2

Industry Revenue Forecasts

Euromonitor International.
July 2015. “Video Games in the US.
Includes industry stats 2009-2014, five year forecast from 2014-2019 (“Video games is expected to see a CAGR of 4% at constant 2014 prices over the forecast period.” Early growth will be driven by console purchases, thereafter by software sales.) Fee-based report – no other figures freely accessible.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers,
via Venture Beat.
June 2, 2015. “U.S. games industry forecast to grow 30 percent to $19.6B by 2019.
Contacts:
Pauline Orchard
Nicholas Braude
Annaul global entertainment and media outlook (Outlook), covers 13 entertainment and media segments, including video games. The Outlook provides a five-year foreast and five-year historic consumer and advertiser spending data and analysis.
US video game industry (console and PC games, browser-based games, apps, digital and physical, game advertising) will grow 30% from $15 billion in 2014 to $19.6 billion in 2019, with a mature compound annual growth rate of 5.5% Traditional console and PC games were about 80.8% of game industry revenue in 2014, and expected to drop a fraction to 79% by 2019. These figures DO NOT include hardware sales of gaming PCs, consoles, or other devices.
Physical PC game sales are projected to decline, but digital games will grow with a CAGR of 6.8% (from $501M to $696M.
Online PC games are expected to grow from $2.53B to $3.66B, a CAGR of 7.6%.
Total console games are expected to to grow from $8.84B to $11B, a CAGR of 4.5%. Online/microtransaction console games revenue is the fastest growing part of console-related traditional gaming, rising with a CAGR of 17.8%
Beyond traditional games, social/casual gaming revenue will grow at a CAGR of 4.5%, reflecting a switch from browser-based to app-based revenue. Overall, the social/casual segment of gaming will be 12% of the total revenue in 2019.
Video game ad revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.1%. Game ad revenues are stronger in the US than any other market because of the fragmented media landscape in the US, high digital video recorder ownership (which makes it easy to skip TV ads), high social network engagement, and low newspaper readership, all of which drives advertisers to seek out consumers in places like gaming.

eSports Viewership

71.5 million people watched competitive gaming in 2013.

src:
Phillippa Warr. April 9, 2014. “eSports in numbers: Five mind-blowing stats.” Redbull.com

*

Note: In the following poll, esports viewership makes up a small percentage of overall gaming video content, which includes trailers, reviews, walkthroughs, etc.

Worldwide gaming video content audience (all types of content, defined below)
2015 – 486 million
2017 – 790 million (forecast)

US gaming video content audience
2015 – 125 million
2017 – 181 million

Poll respondents had viewed gaming-related video content at least once in the past year.

Type of gaming video content viewed by US internet users, May 2015 (% of Respondents)
69% – trailers promoting upcoming video game relases
54% – humorous clips/montages of gameplay recorded by other players
53% – walkthroughs to help players complete a game, level, or side quest
52% – reviews (professional or amateur)
37% – gameplay with commentary by online personalities
33% – live streams
29% – peer-to-peer privately shared content
24% – esports (professional gaming)

src: SuperData Research via: eMarketer, July 20, 2015. “Consumers, Advertisers Enter Gaming Video Zone.

*

2015 – 150MM will have viewed an eSports tournament

Average 12-month video game spending by platform, for an average eSports viewer (amongst North American PC Gamers)
$176 – PC Games (client-based)
$111 – Console Games
$29 – Handheld Games
$19 – Mobile Games

versus the same 12-month spending for eSports non-participants
$125 – PC Games
$93 – Console Games
$16 – Handheld Games
$18 – Mobile Games

Note: Not sure if “non-participants” are gamers who haven’t played competitively in eSports matches, or gamers who don’t watch esports.

src: Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR), November 1, 2015. “ESports is Not a Fad

*

2015
About half of eSports viewers spend 1-4 hours per week watching esports. 20% watches for less than 1 hour per week, 20% watches 5-9 hours.

src: EEDAR. 2015. “ESports Consumer Analysis Whitepaper (report sample).” p.19

EEDAR contact: Cooper Waddell cwaddell@eedar.com

Global Esports Audience

Last year (2014) the World Championship finals for a fantasy-strategy game called League of Legends drew 45,000 spectators to the Seoul World Cup Stadium to watch 16 teams from South Korea and China battle it out for a $2.13 million prize pool, with a further 27 million people watching online.

Major League Gaming (MLG), founded 2003
chairman, Mike Sepso

MLGtv attracts 27 million viewers a month, drawing its revenue largely from mainstream consumer advertisers – fast-food chains, grooming products, car manufacturers. Sepso puts the company’s value “in the hundreds of millions” of dollars.

The top-earning CoD player is 22-year-old Matt Haag, who plays for Team Optic under the name NaDeSHoT. Three years ago Haag was flipping burgers in McDonald’s. He now has 1.6 million subscribers to his YouTube channel, 1.1 million followers on Twitter, and reportedly earns close to $1 million a year.

With a basic salary, and money made from weekly online tournaments, players can make $30,273 – $45,409 a year. The real money lies in sponsorship and the advertising revenue to be made from building up a fan-base by streaming on YouTube or Twitch.

SBRnet. May 1, 2015. “Video Games Becoming a Spectator Sport

*

NewZoo is a video game and esports research firm. Below are excerpts from both their 2016 and 2015 reports. The 2015 report makes some interesting scale comparisons to traditional sports.

2016 updates:

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Audience_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenue_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenues_per_Enthusiast

 

2015 excerpts:

In terms of audience, the report shows that the number of esports Enthusiasts will jump from 89 million last year (2014) to 145 million in 2017. Another 190 million will watch esports competitions occasionally, showing that competitive gaming has evolved to a spectator sport with a fan base comparable to that of Volleyball, American Football or Ice Hockey.

In terms of fans, there are 2.2 billion people globally who consider themselves to be interested or very interested in sports and of these, 1.6 billion actively participate in at least one sport. This is comparable to the 1.7 billion people that play games. On a global scale, the number of esports enthusiasts compares well to mid-tier traditional sports. Swimming and ice hockey for example have 76 million and 94 million global fans respectively, similar to the 89 million esports enthusiasts. By 2017, the global number of esports fans will come close to that of American football.

sports-esports-fans-2017-newzoo

On a global scale, there are 2.2 billion sports fans who each generate an average of $56 per year. The average revenue for individual sports is anywhere from $20 upwards. Esports enthusiasts on the other hand, currently generate an average of $2.2 per person per year, without game revenues taken into account. Our current esports revenue projections use a conservative $3.2 average revenue per enthusiast figure for 2017. With growth mainly driven by a larger audience, global esports revenues will still rise to $451 million in two years from now. This renders esports comparable to a top 10 sport or globally renowned leagues like the NFL or Champions League. If the average revenue per enthusiast grows faster and jumps to $7, esports will be a billion dollar business by 2017 with even more growth potential going forward. Drawing from the comparison with traditional sports, the report highlights which factors will determine the pace of growth of the esports Economy.

esports-revenue-2020-newzoo

srcs:
NewZoo. January 25, 2016. “Global Esports Market Report: Revenues To Jump To $463M In 2016 As Us Leads The Way.
and
NewZoo. February 16, 2015. “The Esports Economy Will Generate At Least $465 Million In 2017.
11-page preview

eSports Earnings

esportsearnings.com tracks prize earnings, and player, team, and country rankings. Historic data goes back to 1998. Information is sourced from the community, but there is a strict requirement for data to be cited. I cross-referenced a few of the figures against data reported by Redbull’s esports reporting, and the figures were very close.

Data is collected in the following Google Doc.

This database has been cited in reporting by The Verge.

Posted by cc on May 20, 2016 at 7:18 pm | comment count



Video Games


Summary

The majority of the video games data I’ve found is historic, with a couple of one-off, short-term forecasts for mobile phone gamers by Statista (2011-2020), and another one-off forecast for 2008-2018 for daily time spent gaming by VSS. I’ve also seen a couple five-year industry revenues forecasts from Euromonitor and Pricewaterhouse Coopers (to 2019), but these figures are pretty well protected behind paywalls. NewZoo also forecasts audience and revenues for eSports to 2019, and they’re pretty open with their data, but these figures are global.

Releases per year historic data is available for 1971-2015 from Moby Games. I also found one Quora estimate for titles released 2003-2012, but this is a very rough approximate showing a trend that does not strictly agree with the Moby Games data.

The ESA publishes an annual “Essential Facts” report, which has recently included numeric estimates of the number of game players (2014). Older reports give percentages only. The indicators describing number of players have varied a bit from year to year, but some approximation is available for 2004 through the present. In addition to the ESA report, GameTrack has also issued a numeric estimate of the number of players, but just for 2012.

A few historic estimates of time spent gaming are available for 2011-2013 from Neilsen; 2008-2018 and 1995-2005 from VSS; 2014 from NPD Group; and 1999-2009 from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

I’ve found one website that provides fairly comprehensive eSports earnings information going back to 1998, including total prize money, tournaments, active players, US players, US earnings, etc.

Findings

Releases Per Year

A 2010 article describing the “death of the video game expert” as a result of the explosion in the number of games published per year refers to video game database MobyGames.com as its source for annual game release numbers. The article includes a chart through 2009, but doesn’t give the tallies for each year, so I’ve retrieved the information from MobyGames.

The simple tally for 1971-2015 is in this Google Sheet.

Note: This database includes substantially more titles than were reflected in the Quora answer below (in which data was gathered by hand from a variety of Wikipedia pages). I believe the MobyGames data to be more accurate.

Srcs:

Dana Laratta. April 8, 2010. “The Death of the Video Game Expert.” BitMob. via Internet Archive.

Game Browser — Year. MobyGames

*

A Quora researcher compiled data from various Wikipedia pages and found that in general there has been a decline in the number of releases per year from 2003 through 2012. Several commenters have theories on why this may be or corroborate the trend.
Trend:
Quora-games-per-year-graph
Raw numbers:
Quora-games-per-year-numbers

Src: David Cole. October 31, 2013. “On average, how many video games are released each year, by platform?” Quora.

I’m guessing the researcher probably mined these Wikipedia pages:

Category:Video games by year

Category: Video game lists by company

*

Since 1975 (through 2010), 547 films have given rise to around 2,000 video games, and film adaptations are now (2010) a category that accounts for some 10% of video games published.

src:

Alexix Blanchet. December 7, 2011. “A Statistical Analysis of the Adaptation of Films into Video Games

NOTE: IMAGE LINKS ARE BROKEN, BUT IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE HERE.

author email: alexis.blanchet@univ-paris3.fr
author website.

Video Game Players

Number of Americans aged 11+ who play video games

2012 – 68%, 165 million people

src:

GameTrack, via: Rachel Weber. Dec 11, 2012. “US Still the Gaming Super Power.” GamesIndustry.biz.

*

2014

155 million Americans play video games

4/5 of US households own a device to play video games

51% of US households own a dedicated game console

avg two gamers in each game-playing US household

42% of Americans play video games regularly (3 hours or more per week).

avg game player is 35 years old

26% are under 18

30% are 18-35

17% are 36-49

27% are 50+

56% of game players are male

44% of game players are female

women 18+ are 33% of gameplayers, boys 18- are only 15%

39% of the most frequent gamers play social games

top three types of games that the most frequent gamers play most often:

31% – social games

30% – action

30% – puzzle/board game/card game/game shows

top devices most frequent gamers use to play

PC – 62%

Dedicated console – 56%

Smartphone – 35%

Wireless device – 31%

Dedicated handheld system – 21%

56% of the most frequent gamers play with others

the most frequent gamers who play with others spend an average of

6.5 hrs per week playing with others online

5 hours per week playing with others in-person

src: The ESA, April 2015. “2015 Essential Facts.

2013 – 59% of Americans play video games

2012 – 58% of Americans play video games

srcs:

The ESA, October 2014. “2014 Essential Facts

and

The ESA, June 2013. “2013 Essential Facts

2011

49% of US households own a dedicated console

2010

72% of American households play computer or video games

2009

67% of American households play computer or video games

2008

68% of American households play computer or video games

43% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2007

65% of American households play computer or video games

42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2006

67% of American heads of households play computer or video games

41% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2005

69% of American heads of households play computer or video games

42% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

2004

75% of heads of households play computer or video games

47% of Americans have purchased or plan to purchase one or more games in the year

Note: I believe the 2005 report (with data for 2004) was the first year the ESA started quantifying the number of players/playing households. The 2004 report (with data for 2003) does not include any such figures.

srcs:

The ESA. “2012 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2011 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2010 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2009 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2008 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2007 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2006 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2005 Essential Facts.

The ESA. “2004 Essential Facts.

*

Number of mobile phone gamers in the US from 2011 to 2020 (in millions)

2011 – 80.7

2012 – 106.3

2013 – 129.3

2014 – 147.6

2015 – 164.9

2016 – 180.4 (forecast)

2017 – 192.2 (forecast)

2018 – 202.8 (forecast)

2019 – 209.5 (forecast)

2020 – 213 (forecast)

src:
Statista, citing eMarketer

# of Mobile Game Users (millions) – United States

2014 – 83.38

2015 – 95.56

2016 – 104.16

2017 – 112.189

2018 – 120.069

2019 – 125.022

2020 – 128.327

src: Krista Lofgren. February 8, 2016. “2016 Video Game Statistics & Trends Who’s Playing What & Why.” Big Fish Games.

Note: Big Fish Games produces and distributes casual games. These figures were not cited in the blog post in which they were given, but the author confirms by email that the data came from a Statista study on the Digital Market Outlook for video games.

Time Spent Gaming

Claimed weekly hours spent gaming on any platform (US gamers 13+)

2013 – 6.3 hours

2012 – 5.6 hours

2011 – 5.1 hours

src: Nielsen. May 27, 2014. “Multi-Platform Gaming: For The Win!

*

Time spent daily playing video games per capita

2008 – 17.8 min

2013 – 23.2 min

2018 – 28.3 min (forecast)

src: Veronis Suhler Stevenson & Borrell Assoicates (VSS), 2014, via Emmanuel Agu, et al. “Making Exergames Appealing” in “Handbook on Holistic Perspectives in Gamification for Clinical Pactice,” 2015.

*

daily time spent playing video games per capita in the US in 2018 expected to be 28.3

src:

LexInnova Technologies. July 1, 2014. “Godlike Gaming: A Landscape Analysis On The Future Of The Gaming Industry” p.5

NOTE: I suspect this report is referring to VSS data, although they’re not cited.

Hours per year spent playing video games (vs. reading)

1995 – 80 (100)

2000 – 140 (85)

2005 – 195 (80)

src: Estimated based on a chart citing Versonis Suhler Stevenson Communications Group. 2005. “2004 Communications Industry Forecast and Report.” adapted in: Lawrence Baines. 2008. “A Teacher’s Guide to Multisensory Learning.

Note: Converting the hours/year above to minutes/day would yield

1995 – 13.2

2000 – 23.0

2005 – 32.1

*

2014 – 34 million “core gamers” play core games on core devices an average of 22hrs/wk

These “core gamers” make up 12% of the total survey respondents (extrapolated to 34 million individuals ages 9+). This is down two percent from 14% of respondents in 2013.

Among the total surveyed population, 42% (extrapolated to 118 million individuals ages 9+) play on a core device. 19% (extrapoalted to 53 million) play 5+ hours per week on a core device.

“Core gamer”: individuals who play video games five or more hours per week on a PlayStation3, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC, or Mac, and who play Action, Adventure, Fighting, Flight, Massively Multi-Player, Racing, Real Time Strategy, Role-Plating, Shooter, or Sport genres on any of those devices.

src: NPD Group. May 13, 2014. “The NPD Group Reports 34 Million Core Gamers Spend an Average of 22 Hours per Week Playing Video Games

and

NPD Group. April 2014. “Core Gaming 2014 Snapshot Report.

*

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing video games

1999 – 26min/day

2004 – 49min/day

2009 – 1hr13min/day

Among children aged 8-18, average time playing games on computer

1999 – 12min/day

2004 – 19min/day

2009 – 17min/day

Note: this study also includes daily consumption figures for TV, music/audio, computer (including a games subcategory – don’t think this is included in the standalone video game consump figures), print media, movies

src:

Kaiser Family Foundation. January 2010. “Generation M2

Industry Revenue Forecasts

Euromonitor International.

July 2015. “Video Games in the US.

Includes industry stats 2009-2014, five year forecast from 2014-2019 (“Video games is expected to see a CAGR of 4% at constant 2014 prices over the forecast period.” Early growth will be driven by console purchases, thereafter by software sales.) Fee-based report – no other figures freely accessible.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers,

via Venture Beat.

June 2, 2015. “U.S. games industry forecast to grow 30 percent to $19.6B by 2019.

Contacts:

Pauline Orchard

Nicholas Braude

Annaul global entertainment and media outlook (Outlook), covers 13 entertainment and media segments, including video games. The Outlook provides a five-year foreast and five-year historic consumer and advertiser spending data and analysis.

US video game industry (console and PC games, browser-based games, apps, digital and physical, game advertising) will grow 30% from $15 billion in 2014 to $19.6 billion in 2019, with a mature compound annual growth rate of 5.5% Traditional console and PC games were about 80.8% of game industry revenue in 2014, and expected to drop a fraction to 79% by 2019. These figures DO NOT include hardware sales of gaming PCs, consoles, or other devices.

Physical PC game sales are projected to decline, but digital games will grow with a CAGR of 6.8% (from $501M to $696M.

Online PC games are expected to grow from $2.53B to $3.66B, a CAGR of 7.6%.

Total console games are expected to to grow from $8.84B to $11B, a CAGR of 4.5%. Online/microtransaction console games revenue is the fastest growing part of console-related traditional gaming, rising with a CAGR of 17.8%

Beyond traditional games, social/casual gaming revenue will grow at a CAGR of 4.5%, reflecting a switch from browser-based to app-based revenue. Overall, the social/casual segment of gaming will be 12% of the total revenue in 2019.

Video game ad revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.1%. Game ad revenues are stronger in the US than any other market because of the fragmented media landscape in the US, high digital video recorder ownership (which makes it easy to skip TV ads), high social network engagement, and low newspaper readership, all of which drives advertisers to seek out consumers in places like gaming.

eSports Viewership

71.5 million people watched competitive gaming in 2013.

src:

Phillippa Warr. April 9, 2014. “eSports in numbers: Five mind-blowing stats.” Redbull.com

*

Note: In the following poll, esports viewership makes up a small percentage of overall gaming video content, which includes trailers, reviews, walkthroughs, etc.

Worldwide gaming video content audience (all types of content, defined below)

2015 – 486 million

2017 – 790 million (forecast)

US gaming video content audience

2015 – 125 million

2017 – 181 million

Poll respondents had viewed gaming-related video content at least once in the past year.

Type of gaming video content viewed by US internet users, May 2015 (% of Respondents)

69% – trailers promoting upcoming video game relases

54% – humorous clips/montages of gameplay recorded by other players

53% – walkthroughs to help players complete a game, level, or side quest

52% – reviews (professional or amateur)

37% – gameplay with commentary by online personalities

33% – live streams

29% – peer-to-peer privately shared content

24% – esports (professional gaming)

src: SuperData Research via: eMarketer, July 20, 2015. “Consumers, Advertisers Enter Gaming Video Zone.

*

2015 – 150MM will have viewed an eSports tournament

Average 12-month video game spending by platform, for an average eSports viewer (amongst North American PC Gamers)

$176 – PC Games (client-based)

$111 – Console Games

$29 – Handheld Games

$19 – Mobile Games

versus the same 12-month spending for eSports non-participants

$125 – PC Games

$93 – Console Games

$16 – Handheld Games

$18 – Mobile Games

Note: Not sure if “non-participants” are gamers who haven’t played competitively in eSports matches, or gamers who don’t watch esports.

src: Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR), November 1, 2015. “ESports is Not a Fad

*

2015

About half of eSports viewers spend 1-4 hours per week watching esports. 20% watches for less than 1 hour per week, 20% watches 5-9 hours.

src: EEDAR. 2015. “ESports Consumer Analysis Whitepaper (report sample).” p.19

EEDAR contact: Cooper Waddell cwaddell@eedar.com

Global Esports Audience

Last year (2014) the World Championship finals for a fantasy-strategy game called League of Legends drew 45,000 spectators to the Seoul World Cup Stadium to watch 16 teams from South Korea and China battle it out for a $2.13 million prize pool, with a further 27 million people watching online.

Major League Gaming (MLG), founded 2003

chairman, Mike Sepso

MLGtv attracts 27 million viewers a month, drawing its revenue largely from mainstream consumer advertisers – fast-food chains, grooming products, car manufacturers. Sepso puts the company’s value “in the hundreds of millions” of dollars.

The top-earning CoD player is 22-year-old Matt Haag, who plays for Team Optic under the name NaDeSHoT. Three years ago Haag was flipping burgers in McDonald’s. He now has 1.6 million subscribers to his YouTube channel, 1.1 million followers on Twitter, and reportedly earns close to $1 million a year.

With a basic salary, and money made from weekly online tournaments, players can make $30,273 – $45,409 a year. The real money lies in sponsorship and the advertising revenue to be made from building up a fan-base by streaming on YouTube or Twitch.

SBRnet. May 1, 2015. “Video Games Becoming a Spectator Sport

*

NewZoo is a video game and esports research firm. Below are excerpts from both their 2016 and 2015 reports. The 2015 report makes some interesting scale comparisons to traditional sports.

2016 updates:

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Audience_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenue_Growth_V4

Newzoo_Esports_Report_2016_Revenues_per_Enthusiast

2015 excerpts:

In terms of audience, the report shows that the number of esports Enthusiasts will jump from 89 million last year (2014) to 145 million in 2017. Another 190 million will watch esports competitions occasionally, showing that competitive gaming has evolved to a spectator sport with a fan base comparable to that of Volleyball, American Football or Ice Hockey.

In terms of fans, there are 2.2 billion people globally who consider themselves to be interested or very interested in sports and of these, 1.6 billion actively participate in at least one sport. This is comparable to the 1.7 billion people that play games. On a global scale, the number of esports enthusiasts compares well to mid-tier traditional sports. Swimming and ice hockey for example have 76 million and 94 million global fans respectively, similar to the 89 million esports enthusiasts. By 2017, the global number of esports fans will come close to that of American football.

sports-esports-fans-2017-newzoo

On a global scale, there are 2.2 billion sports fans who each generate an average of $56 per year. The average revenue for individual sports is anywhere from $20 upwards. Esports enthusiasts on the other hand, currently generate an average of $2.2 per person per year, without game revenues taken into account. Our current esports revenue projections use a conservative $3.2 average revenue per enthusiast figure for 2017. With growth mainly driven by a larger audience, global esports revenues will still rise to $451 million in two years from now. This renders esports comparable to a top 10 sport or globally renowned leagues like the NFL or Champions League. If the average revenue per enthusiast grows faster and jumps to $7, esports will be a billion dollar business by 2017 with even more growth potential going forward. Drawing from the comparison with traditional sports, the report highlights which factors will determine the pace of growth of the esports Economy.

esports-revenue-2020-newzoo

srcs:

NewZoo. January 25, 2016. “Global Esports Market Report: Revenues To Jump To $463M In 2016 As Us Leads The Way.

and

NewZoo. February 16, 2015. “The Esports Economy Will Generate At Least $465 Million In 2017.
11-page preview

eSports Earnings

esportsearnings.com tracks prize earnings, and player, team, and country rankings. Historic data goes back to 1998. Information is sourced from the community, but there is a strict requirement for data to be cited. I cross-referenced a few of the figures against data reported by Redbull’s esports reporting, and the figures were very close.

Data is collected in the following Google Doc.

This database has been cited in reporting by The Verge.

Video Games was originally published on Extrapolations

Posted by on May 18, 2016 at 8:03 pm | comment count



Sports Fandom, Spending & Spectatorship, Fantasy Sports


Summary

Most of the data reported here are historic, although I’ve found a couple forecasts from Pricewaterhouse Coopers for stadium building, and ticket and merchandise sales, 2008-2019.

A small chart contrasting data on sports attendance spending vs. consumer confidence 2011-2015 was published by Rich Luker, who runs ESPN’s annual Sports Poll. I suspect we could find more historic data for both lines to create an expanded chart.

I’ve found several polls describing sports fandom. For the most port, the polls give percentages of respondents, rather than raw figures. Harris’s poll presents the oldest data I’ve seen (back to 1985), although I believe ESPN’s poll has been running for longer than it’s published data would suggest (chart shows data back to 2000, but I think the polls have been running since the mid ’90s).

I’ve collected major league attendance for the NBA and MLB are available back to 1981, and for the NFL back to 1994. Older NFL attendance available is probably available, somewhere.

Team Marketing Report publishes a “Fan Cost Index” which tracks the prices of tickets, as well as other typical spectator expenditures (eg: hot dogs, beer, etc). I’ve found their data for NFL ticket prices back to 2006 via Statista. We should try to contact them for more data.

Findings

Sports Fandom

luker-spending-vs-economy

luker-2015-sports-fandom-and-spending

In 2015, 23.4 percent of Americans spent on sports at least once a month, a 6 percent decline from the average 24.9 percent for 2011-14. This trend, if it continues for five more years, will reduce the number of people spending monthly by 10 million.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures consumer confidence, rose by 21 percent in 2015 compared with 2011-14, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 24 percent in 2015 compared with 2011-14. These three sources of data, showing similar growth, indicate a context where more frequent spending in sports should have taken place. And generally, for more than 22 years, engagement in sports has mirrored the performance of the economy and personal finances. We noticed a shift in those trends around 2011, when it seemed the economy was perking up.

The percentage of American sports fans remained near a very stable 88 percent from 2011-15, but avid fans declined by 2 percent in 2015, and those who placed a high priority on time and investment in sports interests dropped 4 percent. Similarly, 4 percent more Americans said they were “less interested in sports than they were the year before” in 2015, compared with the 2011-14 average.

src:
Rich Luker. February 22, 2016. “Sports spending not on pace with economic growth.” Sports Business Daily. contact: rich@lukerco.com

*

Harris has run an annual poll at least since 1985 asking what Americans’ favorite sports are. In this chart, data is only available for the latest year (2014), but we may be able to obtain figures for the preceeding years by contacting Harris.

Harris-favorite-sports-1985-2014

src:
Harris Poll, via
Cork Gaines. February 20, 2015. “The popularity of the NFL is starting to fall in the US.” Business Insider

TO DO: CONTACT HARRIS TO ASK FOR HISTORIC DATA POINTS.

A much simpler, semi-regular Gallup poll, 2001-2015, simply asks if people consider themselves sports fans.

gallup-fans-2001-2015

src:
Jeffrey M. Jones. June 17, 2015. “As Industry Grows, Percentage of U.S. Sports Fans Steady.” Gallup.

The ESPN Sports Poll, run annually since 1994 by Rich Luker, defines percentages of fans and avid fans, and, by subtraction, non-fans. This particular graphic only give data back to 2000, but we may be able to ask Luker (or his colleague) for older data.

ESPN-Sports-Poll-avid-fans-2000-2014

src:
Jess3 (the graphic’s designer), 2015.
Using ESPN Sports Poll data, collected by Rich Luker and Chad Menefee. Contact: chad@lukerontrends.com

TO DO: EMAIL CHAD MENEFEE TO ASK FOR OLDER DATA

The ESPN Sports Poll has also been tracking college sports fans at least since 2000. This chart shows percentage and numeric data for 2000-2010.

ESPN-Sports-Poll-college-sports-fans-2000-2010

src:
Kenneth Cortsen. August 16, 2013.
IMG’s Capitalization On Sport Stars And Other Assets – IMG College Is Meant For Success.

Spending And Spectatorship

Pricewaterhouse Coopers publishes an annual 5-year-forecast of sports industry figures, including gate revenues and merchandising. The publications also include data for the previous five years. Data for 2008-2019 are freely available in the 2013, 2014, and 2015 editions, and I’ve aggregated the gate revenues and merchandising data in the following Google Sheet:

src: Adam W. Jones (editor). “PwC Sports Outlook.” PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
contact: adam.w.jones@us.pwc.com
November 2013 edition
October 2014 edition
October 2015 edition

*

Professional League Game Attendance

ESPN collects historic game data, including attendance, going back to 2001, for several professional sports. However, Peter Von Allmen, an academic economist and current president of the North American Association of Sports Economists (NAASE), referred me to the [sport]-reference.com websites as an excellent source for historic sports data going back much further than ESPN’s data.

I’ve compiled the [sport]-reference.com data describing the number of teams and attendance (total regular season, and average per game attendance, in some cases) for the NBA, MLB, and NFL in the following Google Sheet:

Note: NBA data is collected for 1981-2016. Attendance figures are actually available going back to 1946, but only for a couple teams per season.

Srcs:
Basketball-Reference.com
[Click on a season date, then Summary, then Miscellaneous Stats to find attendance figures.]
Baseball-Reference.com
[Click on a season date, then Other, then Attendance & Misc.]
Pro-Football-Reference.com
[Click on “NFL” next to a season date, then Other, then Attendance]
NOTE: The tallies on the NFL site are incorrect, so I’ve re-calculated them

Other sources:

NHL attendance
ESPN has data back to 2001
but HockeyDB.com has league totals data back to 1994
and average home game data older than that
Average home game data
AWAITING AN EMAIL (5/2/16) FROM RALPH SLATE, WHO MAY BE WILLING TO SHARE

MLB and NFL data is available from ESPN, going back to 2001

NCAA Football
total fans per year 1954-2014
THERE’S A GRAPH, BUT ONLY 2014 IS LABELED WITH A FIGURE
src: National Football Foundation, June 2015
“2014 Report: Passion for College Football Remains Strong – See more at: http://www.footballfoundation.org/tabid/567/Article/55324/2014-Report-Passion-for-College-Football-Remains-Strong.aspx#sthash.cjtYWG1T.dpuf”

http://www.footballfoundation.org/tabid/567/Article/55324/2014-Report-Passion-for-College-Football-Remains-Strong.aspx

*

Average NFL ticket price, 2006 – 2015
2006 – 62.38
2007 – 67.11
2008 – 72.2
2009 – 74.99
2010 – 76.47
2011 – 77.34
2012 – 78.38
2013 – 81.54
2014 – 84.43
2015 – 85.83

via Statista, citing TMR 2006 to 2015
(TMR: Team Marketing Report)

*

Major league facilities

PwC-major-league-facilities-aging1995-2022

src: Adam W. Jones (editor). “PwC Sports Outlook.” October 2014. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. P.4
contact: adam.w.jones@us.pwc.com

Fantasy Sports

Number of fantasy sports players by year (Figure 2)

1988 500,000
1991-1994 1 – 3 Million
2003 15.2 Million
2004 13.5 Million
2005 12.6 Million
2006 18 Million
2007 19.4 Million
2008 29.9 Million
2009 28.4 Million
2010 32 Million
2011 35.9 Million
2014 41.5 Million
2015 56.8 Million

Percentage of fantasy sports players compared to the general population of the United States, age 12+ (Figure 1)
Total – 14%
Adults – 13%
Teens – 18%
Male – 19%
Female – 8%
College Education – 18%
No College Education – 10%
HH Income $50k+ – 16%
HH income <$50K – 10%

On average, fantasy sports players (age 18+) spend $465 on league-related costs, single-player challenge games, and league-related materials over a 12-month period. Up from $95 in 2012 (src: press release).

src: Fantasy Sports Trade Association. “Industry Demographics.” Accessed May 4, 2016.
press release for the recent research.

Posted by cc on at 6:44 pm | comment count



Historic Variety of Sports


Summary

To get a sense for the growth in the variety of commonly practiced sports, I considered which organizations would have been tracking individual sports in an official capacity. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has a fairly long modern history, but sports included in the Olympic Games are restricted by the organizations rules, so while the IOC list certainly includes many of the most popular sports, and reflects some shifts over the last century, it certainly does not include many emerging but popular sports, or sports that are very popular in a particular region (like American football). I wrote to a number of organizations that lobby on behalf of sports that may have international federations, but lack representation in the Olympics, but I was not able to obtain historic data from any of them. I also thought to consult lists maintained by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) and the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), but these share limitations similar to the sports represented by the IOC. At the other end of the spectrum, I found one website, Topend Sports, which has a fantastic list of sports from around the world which seems quite comprehensive, but unfortunately offers no date information (either documenting when the sport was created or when it became popular).

Findings

International Olympic Committee (IOC)

Some context on IOC terminology and rules:
The IOC uses the terms “event,” “discipline” and “sport” to organize their athletic competitions. An event is any competition that results in the awarding of medals, such as the women’s 100-meter backstroke. The discipline of swimming, which comprises various events like the backstroke, breaststroke and freestyle, is a branch of the sport aquatics.

For a sport or discipline to be considered for the Summer Olympics, it must demonstrate popularity among both genders in various parts of the world. Men from at least 75 countries and women from at least 50 countries should practice a given sport on four continents.

When determining which sports to include in an Olympic program, at least 25 of the sports offered must come from the 28 sports established by the IOC. Up to three additional sports may be added that are not from among this pre-established group.

src:
Greg Soltis. July 27, 2012. “The Incredible Evolution of the Olympics.” LiveScience.

After writing to the International Society of Olympic Historians, I was referred to Bill Malon, who maintains an extensive Excel document with data from 1896-2012, including:
Number of Events per Sport by Year (by gender)
Total # of Events by Year (broken down by gender)
Total # Sports by Year (broken down by gender)
List of Sports and Events by Year (by gender)
List and Total # of Countries by Year

Mr. Malon’s Excel file (originally shared as OGCompShort.xls) is available in this Google Sheets document:

A simple list of the number of sports in each Olympic Games by year is also maintained by Topend Sports: Olympic Games Sports Changes. The list notes which sports were added or dropped in each Games.

*

Agencies That Support the IOC

SportAccord
An association composed of autonomous and independent international sports federations and other international organisations contributing to sport in various fields.

SportAccord promotes sports, increases its and its members’ recognition by the Olympic Movement, and organizes multi-sports games.

To be a Member, an organization must group together the majority of the National Federations throughout the world practicing its sport and regularly hold international competitions. To be an Associate Member, an organization can either group together the activities of several Members or National Olympic Committees for the purpose of organizing competitions, or have objectives recognized by the Council as benefiting the other Members of the Association.

(Previously known as GAISF, the General Association of International Sports Federations.)

src: SportAccord. “2014 Statutes.” Accessed April 7, 2016.

Members list – 106 members

Contact: sportaccord@sportaccord.com
EMAILED 4/13. No reply.

Also sent inquires to The Association of IOC Recognised International Sports Federations (ARISF), info@arisf.org, and the Alliance of Independent Recognised Members of Sport (AIMS), contact form. No reply from them either.

*

Sports counted in the NFHS Annual Survey, 1969-2015

Counting each sport that gets its own major subject heading in the tables. For example, “Skiing — Alpine” and “Skiing — Cross Country” count for a total of two sports. However, “Football — 11-player”, which often includes three subheadings (“6-player,” “8-player,” and “9-player”), is only counted once. “Flag Football,” with its own heading is counted separately from “Football — 11-Player.”
For example:
[NFHS-skiing-headings.png]

NFHS-football-headings.png

Note: Each of the annual surveys are freely available, but this is a sampling of every five years.

1969/70 – 29 sports
1975/76 – 31 sports
   Added: Archery, Drill Teams, Table Tennis, Weightlifting
   Dropped: Rowing, Rugger
1980 – 36 sports
   
   Added: Canoeing, Crew, Eskimo Games, Judo, Soft Tennis, second Softball category
   Dropped: Rugby
1985 – 31 sports
   Dropped: Curling, Drill Teams, Eskimo Games, Soft Tennis, Table Tennis
   Added: Equestrian, Heptathalon
   Condensed to one entry each: Softball, Track & Field
1990 – 32 sports
   Added: Other
1995 – 38 sports
   Added: Adapted Sports, Competitive Spirit Squads, Team Tennis,
   De-condensed: Skiing, Softball, Track & Field
2000 – 35 sports
   Condensed: Skiing, Softball, Track & Field
2004/05 – 41 sports
   Added: 4 Dance categories, Flag Football, Skiing category, Snowboarding
   Dropped: Decathalon, Heptathalon, Pentathalon, Water Polo
   De-condensed: Skiing, Softball, Track & Field
2009/10 – 42 sports
   Added: Air Riflery, Rodeo, Synchronized Swimming, Water Polo
   Condensed: 3 Dance categories, 2 Skiing categories
2014/15 – 53 sports
   Added: Boce, Dance category, Decathalon, Heptathalon, Kayaking, Mixed Coed Valleyball,
   Mountain Biking, Rugby, Sailing, Soft Tennis, Surfing,

Srcs:
The National Federation Of State High School Associations.
1969-2014 High School Athletics Participation Survey Results.” Pp. 1, 23, 56, 112, 176, 258, 344, 418, 501.
and
2014-15 High School Athletics Participation Survey.” Pp. 1-2

*

International Sports Federations

Wikipedia – List of international sports federations
Includes federations recognized by IOC, ASOIF, AIOWF, ARISF, IPC, and SportAccord. Many of the federations have Wikipedia pages showing the date of creation.

Topend Sports also maintains a list of international sport federations, sorted alphabetically by sport. Current total count: 171.
Note: No links to the federation websites. Links to internal pages about the sport – no date information, just short, general descriptions of the sports.

*

More Comprehensive Sports Lists

Topend Sports maintains a “Complete List of Sports from Around the World.”

The list currently has 806 entries, but no date information. Separately, they maintain a list of “Ancient and Extinct Sports.”

Topend Sports also has an interesting list of “New and Unusual Sports” submitted by readers, but I think many of the sports are just theoretical.

*

Other Resources

North American Association of Sports Economists

Journal of Sports Management
current editor: David Shilbury
Published by the North American Society For Sports Management (NASSM)
Indexed in Human Kinetic Journals

North American Society for Sport History (NASSH)

Sport In American History
group blog – primarily academic contributors
links page points to other orgs

The LA84 Foundation operates the largest sports research library in North America, the Paul Ziffren Sports Resource Center. It is a state-of-the-art research facility and learning center dedicated to the advancement of sports knowledge and scholarship. The Foundation also maintains a sizable collection of historic sport art and artifacts much of which was inherited from the former Helms Athletic Foundation Sports Halls of Fame. Its digital holdings, accessible to the public through its website, include not only a complete set of Olympic Official Reports, but also the full run of the Journal of Olympic History and its predecessor, Citius, Altius, Fortius through 2012.
[Description from ISOH]
NOTE: reference queries involving research charged $40/hour

Here’s an index to some older sports history journals available online. Seems like perhaps this should not be public, but there it is! And the full text of articles are available, but difficult to navigate (no search).



Sports and Recreation Participation


Summary

Forecast data for sports and recreation participation seems rare.

The USDA Forest Service has published a few 50-year forecasts of outdoor recreation participation. The forecasts are based on data from it’s semi-regular National Survey on Recreation and the Environment. However, the only national-level forecast I’ve seen was published in 1999. I’ve emailed the authors to inquire if more recent national forecasts have been made. (Forecasts for the southern region of the US have been made as recently as 2013).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes 10-year job outlook and employment change forecasts for professional athletes. The latest figures were published December 2015.

Beyond these two forecasts, I’ve found a couple sources for historic sports participation data: the Sports & Fitness Industry Association’s “Sports Participation in America” and ”Trends in Team Sports Report” (tidbits available through press releases going back to 2007); The Physical Activity Council Report (data for 2010-2015 available, possibly going back to 2000 – emailed for more info); United Health Foundation’s annual “American’s Health Rankings” survey; the National Federation of State High School Associations’ “Athletics Participation Survey” (annual data available 1971-2014).

Data and Excerpts

Non-Professional Adult Participation

The most significant forecast data I’ve found comes from the USDA Forest Service, via a 1999 publication. Later forecasts have been made for specific regions of the US. This is the only set of national-level forecasts I’ve found.

The publication gives projections of future recreation participation (by millions of participants aged 16 and over) and consumption (by millions of days annually and by millions of primary purpose trips taken) at lo-year intervals beginning in 2000 and ending in 2050. Projections for 24 specific outdoor activities and sports are grouped as following: winter, water, wildlife, dispersed land, and developed land. The projections are given as indexes, based on the year 1995.

Two types of regional cross-sectional models were used:
– a logistic regression model (for participation)
– a negative binomial form of a count data model (for consumption)

I’ve aggregated the forecasts in this table.

The data in these projections comes from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE), which has been collected since 1960 (originally as the National Recreation Survey). The survey has been conducted in 1960, 1965, 1970, 1972, 1977, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1999-2001, 2005-2011 (although this report only reflects data through the 94-95 survey).

Src: J.M. Bowker, Donald B.K. English, H. Ken Cordell. 1999. “Projections Of Outdoor Recreation Participation To 2050.” In Outdoor Recreation in American Life.

Note: Emailed the authors, Bowker and Cordell March 14, 2016, to inquire about subsequent national-level projections. No reply received.

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Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA) reports

The SFIA (formerly the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association, or SGMA) has published an annual report called “Sports Participation in America” since 2000 (data going back to 1999). The report describes participation levels in over 100 sports, recreation, and outdoor activities. Each report includes a general breakdown of the number of Americans aged 6 and older who participated in at least one of the covered sports frequently, occassionally (later: regularly or casually), or did not participate in any.

Here’s an example of the chart from the report published in 2004:
SGMA-04-participation-breakdown
Src:
SGMA. 2004. “Sports Participation in America: 2004 Edition.” file name: Sports Part in Am 2004.pdf

I’ve seen data like the above from 1999-2003, and 2008, which is aggregated in this table, in columns C, and E-F. [Sources given in the comments for each cell.] The participation reports also gives a variety of other statistics describing the growth in participation in individual sports, including participation differences correlated with demographic characteristics.

In addition to the participation report, SFIA also publishes data describing core participants in team sports (”Trends in Team Sports Report” — tidbits available through press releases going back to 2007). The distinction of “core” indicates frequent and regular players (the threshold varies by sport/activity). This is the largest collection of core sports participation I’ve found:

Team Sports Core Participation (in thousands)

click for larger
Via: Hotel News Now, May 28, 2013

Note: Emailed Corey Bockhaus, cbockhaus@sfia.org, research@sfia.org, 3/14 to ask about older and more recent data like above. Hoping he can fill the gap in general participation data from 2004-2007, and 2009+.

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2016 Physical Activity Council Report

Annual study tracking participation in over 120 sports. The PAC report gives overall statistics (percentages and raw figures), as well as sport-specific statistics (raw figures, and annual change percentages).

“The overall levels of inactivity decreased marginally in the last 12 months from 28.3% of Americans age six and older in 2014 to 27.7% in 2015. However, there are still 81.6 million inactive Americans.”

PAC-inactives2010-2015

“Inactivity decreased for most age groups, with 13 to 17 year olds having the biggest drop (1.4%) and 35 to 44 year olds having the lowest decrease (0.2%) in 2015. While those Americans between the ages of 45 to 54 remained flat in inactivity, there was a gradual increase in inactivity for 55 to 64 year olds.”

212.6 million “actives” taking part in a wide range of sports and fitness activities in 2015, a slight increase from 209.3 actives in 2014.

Total Participation Rate by Activity Category, 2015
Fitness Sports 61.5%
Outdoor Sports 48.4%
Individual Sports 34.8%
Team Sports 23.1%
Racquet Sports 13.5%
Water Sports 14.2%
Winter Sports 7.4%

 

Activity Category Segmented by Generations, 2015
Individual Sports Racquet Sports Team Sports Outdoor Sports Winter Sports Water Sports Fitness Sports
Gen Z (2000+) 48.2% 18.8% 58.8% 61.8% 13.1% 17.5% 50.6%
Millennials (1980-1999) 43.6% 20.2% 31.8% 57.4% 12.2% 20.3% 66.7%
Gen X (1965-1979) 36.9% 13.4% 17.9% 51.4% 7.0% 14.8% 66.2%
Boomers (1945-1964) 24.1% 7.1% 6.4% 38.6% 2.9% 9.2% 60.0%

 

Fitness and Activity-Related Spending over a 5-year Span, 2015
(% of people who spent on)
Sports/recreation footwear 45.3%
Sports/recreation clothing 44%
Outdoor recreation activities 39.5%
Sports/recreation equipment 34.9%
Gym/membership fees 29.3%
Travel to take part in sports & recreation 28.1%
Team sports outside of school 25%
Team sports at school 20.2%
Individual sports events 19.7%
Lessons/instruction/sports camps 19.3%
Winter sports 17.9%

Based on 32,658 online interviews with a 95% confidence level. A weighting technique was used to balance the data to reflect the total US population ages six and above. The total population figure used was 294,141,894 people ages six and older.

“Inactivity” is defined to include those participants who reported no physical activity in 2015 and an additional
18 sports/fitness activities that require minimal to no physical exertion.

Contributions from International Health, Racquet and Sportsclub Association, The National Golf Foundation, The Outdoor Foundation, The Snowsports Industries America, The Sports and Fitness Industry Association, The Tennis Industry Association, and United States Tennis Association

The report indicates that data have been collected since 2000, but the report only shows figures going back to 2010.

Note: I’ve emailed to inquire about pre-2010 data (March 9, 2016, info@sportsmarketingsurveysusa.com).

Src: Physical Activity Council. March 1, 2016. “2016 Participation Report.”

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Adults reporting no physical activity or
exercise outside of work in last 30 days
2015 22.6%
2014 25.3%
2013 22.9%
2012 26.2%
2011 23.9%
2010 23.8%
2009 24.6%
2008 22.6%
2007 22.6%
2006 23.8%
2005 22.5%
2004 22.7%
2003 24.1%
2002 25.4%
2001 26.7%
2000 27.7%
1999 27.7%
1998 27.8%
1997 27.8%

Src: United Health Foundation. “United States Physical Inactivity (1997-2015).” Accessed March 16, 2016.

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Professional Participation

BLS – Athletes and Sports Competitors

2014
Median Pay – $43,350/year
Number of Jobs – 13,700
Job Outlook 2014-2024 – 6% (as fast as average for all occupations)
Employment change 2014-2024 – 800 more jobs
Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook. “Athletes and Sports Competitors.” Summary. December 17, 2015.

Year Total Employment
1999 10,620
2000 9,920
2001 10,520
2002 10,400
2003 11,840
2004 12,250
2005 12,230
2006 12,500
2007 12,670
2008 13,960
2009 13,620
2010 12,660
2011 12,630
2012 12,450
2013 13,880
2014 11,520
2015 11,710

Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Statistics. “OES Data.” 1999-May 2015.
and
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Statistics. “27-2021: Athletes and Sports Competitors.”

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Student/Youth Participation

The National Federation Of State High School Associations has conducted its annual “Athletics Participation Survey” since 1971. The survey is completed by high schools with membership in the NFHS and its member associations.

NFHS1971-2015-sports-participation
Src: National Federation of State High School Associations. “2014-15 High School Athletics Participation Survey Results.” Page 55 (page 3 of this PDF).

Press release for 2014-15 school year available here.
Excerpt:
“Based on figures from the 51 NFHS member state high school associations, which includes the District of Columbia, the number of participants in high school sports reached an all-time high of 7,807,047 – an increase of 11,389 from the previous year.”

Participation data for recent individual years available are available on the NFHS website at the “Participation Statistics” page.

Note: 3/9 Emailed Bruce Howard to ask what percentage of high school students participate in sports, and what percentage of high schools participate in their survey.

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Among 6- to 17-year-olds, the average number of team sports played per participant has fallen 5.9 percent in the last five years, dropping from 2.14 to 2.01, according to the SFIA.

Tracking The Changes In Youth Sports Participation
(Participants by ages 6-17, thousands)
2009 2014 % Change
Baseball 7,012 6,711 -4.3%
Basketball 10,404 9,694 -6.8%
Field hockey 438 370 -15.5%
Football (tackle) 3,962 3,254 -17.9%
Football (touch) 3,005 2,032 -32.4%
Gymnastics 2,510 2,809 11.9%
Ice hockey 517 743 43.7%
Lacrosse 624 804 28.8%
Rugby 150 301 100.7%
Soccer (indoor) 2,456 2,172 -11.6%
Soccer (outdoor) 8,360 7,656 -8.4%
Softball (fast-pitch) 988 1,004 1.6%
Softball (slow-pitch) 1,827 1,622 -11.2%
Track and field 2,697 2,417 -10.4%
Volleyball (court) 3,420 2,680 -21.6%
Volleyball (sand/beach) 532 652 22.6%
Wrestling 1,385 805 -41.9%

Src: SFIA, via Sports Business Daily, “2014 Trends in Team Sports,” August 10, 2015

Press release for the 2013 Trends in Team Sports available here
[no press releases for more recent reports]
Excerpt:
“Compared to 2011, which saw an increase in only 5 of the 24 sports, the surge in core participation in the most current U.S. Trends in Team Sports Report is proof of the growing trend of specialization in team sports. While there are more quality participants (core), the report also reveals the decrease in overall (casual) team sports participants over the last five years. Since 2008, team sports have lost 16.1 million participants or 11.1% of all team participants, measured by those who played at least once a year.”

2007 Edition excerpts
“While 31.6 million U.S. children (age 6-17) participate in team sports on a ‘frequent’, ‘regular’, or ‘casual’ basis, nearly 19 million U.S. children do not participate in team sports at all.”

“900,000 17-year olds played basketball in 2006 which means 17.9% of all 17-year olds played basketball in 2006.”
Src: SFIA. 2007. “U.S. Trends in Team Sports 2007 Edition.”



Future of Sports


future-sports-stadium
Src: USA Today

A report consulting leading futurists presents a picture of what professional sports might be like in the next 25 years. Predictions are made in three increments (1-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-25 years), but the editors stress that the report only describes a possible future, not a most likely scenario. It is intended to be a conversation starter, and should not be read as a high-confidence forecast. The report covers eleven facets of the industry, including facilities, venues, players, fans, etc. The report was commissioned by the operator of a global food service and hospitality company and owner of a major professional team.

The full report is available for free, but here are highlights by chapter:

Athletes

1-5 years: genetic screening
5-10 years: genetic enhancements
10-25 years: natural & enhanced athletes

“Safe and detectable drugs that boost key physiological factors to specific, pre-determined amounts will be legal and will level the playing field for all. Success will be determined more by character, teamwork, strategy, and the mental edge than by the genetic lottery. In this sense, sports will become a purer test than we have today.”

The carefully managed genetic enhancements might allow for:
increased red blood cell count for better oxygen delivery
stamina increased 60%
muscle mass doubled
pain pathways blocked
skeletal density increased

Enhanced athletes and natural athletes might compete in separate leagues, with the leagues meeting in championship games between natural and enhanced players.

All players will also be enhanced by courts/fields that increase performance.

Stadium

1-5 years: demand for data flow (via smart phones, etc)
5-10 years: video advances
10-25 years: urban integration

Video walls in stadium architecture; on-field holographic replays, glasses-free 3D tech in luxury boxes; VR rides in the stadium for fans.

Smaller stadium footprints, enabled by self-driving self-parking cars and high-speed mass transit, allow stadiums to be built in city centers; modular/adaptable construction for variety of events; variety of fan areas.

More alcohol sales (enabled by driverless cars, mass transit); more security cameras, facial recognition.

Broadcasting

1-5 years: the death of one-size-fits-all broadcasting (variety of consump options; Google likely buys rights for a major league)
5-10 years: divergence (news content comes from leagues, franchises, players, fans)
10-25 years: the convergence (fans re-integrate content from various sources and share)

Major networks lose control over content (to leagues, players, franchises, fans).
Influence of network commentators and journalists wanes due to social media access.
Major online platform (probably Google) buys multiyear broadcast rights for a league.

Fans access content from many sources all at once.
Fans integrate these streams into seamless, coherent, personalized viewing experiences.
Watch a game via VR headset from the perspective of your favorite player.

E-Sports and Fantasy Sports

1-5 years: talent ecosystem emerges
5-10 years: better controllers
10-25 years: indistinguishable remote and in-person gameplay

Celebrity gamers challenge traditional sports stars for adulation.
Pro sports leagues embrace gaming.
Talent eco-systems supporting esports (coaches, high school teams, ranking, etc).
Hand-held controllers replaced by body movement and sensors.
Tactile feedback interfaces and AR/VR enable remote play.

The Fan

1-5 years: increasingly responsive
5-10 years: fan-recorded content
10-25 years: increased fan input (extension of 1-5yr forecast above – more strategy decisions, like scouting)

Forced crowdsourcing of critical decisions, like whether to fire a player or coach after a scandal.

When every fan is wearing a high-quality video device, fans become a prime source for broadcast and replay material.

Team-designated ombudsmen will represent fans in major team decisions, and complex algorithms will predict fan reactions.

Extreme Adventure Sports

1-5 years: extreme sports league
5-10 years: robot experiments
10-25 years: sports zones

Extreme sports will adapt a more formalized competition format.

Robot trials will be run before humans perform to improve safety. Later, robotic exoskeletons and self-powered body suits further reduce injuries and death.

Designated competition areas in national wilderness areas.

Payments and Ticketing

1-5 years: move to digital
5-10 years: paper tickets go away (Apple establishes its own banking technology)
10-25 years: end of the line (no standing in lines for anything)

Leagues with their own digital currencies (probably NOT based on Bitcoin).

Seats chosen based on social media contacts, and social goals (families together, singles together, etc).

Fanbase Economics

1-5years: women’s sports apparel expansion
5-10 years: job displacement
10-25 years: increased displacement of low-end workforce

Marketing focuses more on upper-mid-class women as mid-class wealth wanes.

As more fans are priced out of live games, “third venues” emerge. AR enables life-size replays up close in 3D theatrical venues

Src:
The Future of Sports.” Josh McHugh, Po Bronson, Ethan Watters (editors). September 2015. Delaware North.

Acknowledgements:
Singularity University (Paul Saffo, Salim Ismail, Aaron Frank), Kamran Rosen (reporting and research), Gary Bettman, Wendy Selig, Ted Leonsis, Future Cities Lab, Clay Coffey, Luke Bronson, Blaise Zerega, SF Elite Academy, Rick Abramson, Amy Latimer, Todd Merry, Chuck Moran, John Wentzell, Garrett Law, Peter White, Roger Noll, Mark Charles, Margaret Johnson

For background on the motivation for the report, see:
Bruins owner spearheads report on what sports will look like in 25 years.” Erik Brady. January 26, 2016. USA Today.

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Many of the ideas above are echoed in a May 2015 article from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. In particular we’re already seeing line-optimization, seat-optimization, on-demand on-device replays, big growth in digital tickets, women and children as a key demographic.

Src:
Five Trends Shaping the Future of Sports.” Ian Chipman. May 2015. Stanford Graduate School of Business

Tags: , , ,

Posted by cc on February 5, 2016 at 10:34 pm | comment count



Energy Mix, Consumption, Prices, Emissions


Overview

Energy mix forecasts looking out 15 to 35 years are available from a handful of governmental, industry, and independent sources. The excerpts below are preceded by my brief notes, in italic, introducing the source.

General consensus: oil, gas, and coal continue to dominate the energy mix. Gas grows substantially; oil and coal are either level or decreasing. Renewables show the highest growth rates. Amongst renewables, solar shows the greatest growth. Energy intensity (or consumption per capita) decreases.

In addition to energy mix, the figures below also include forecasts for overall usage, intensity (per capita usage), prices, residential sources, and emissions.

Findings

U.S. Energy Information Administration

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents energy forecasts for a range of cases in its Annual Energy Outlook. The excerpts below refer to the Reference Case, wherein GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.4%, and current laws and regulations remain basically the same. This is the “business as usual” scenario. Forecasts for five other scenarios are presented in the report, but are not excerpted here.

EIA-AEO2015-primary-energy-consump-by-fuel-2040
Total primary energy consumption grows in the AEO2015 Reference case by 8.6 quadrillion Btu (8.9%), from 97.1 quadrillion Btu in 2013 to 105.7 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 18).
data available here
web chapter here

EIA-AEO-energy-per-capita-dollar-emissions
Energy intensity (measured both by energy use per capita and by energy use per dollar of GDP) declines in the AEO2015 Reference case over the projection period (Figure 19).
data available here
web chapter here

EIA-AEO-residential-commercial-energy-consump-2040
Delivered energy consumption decreases at an average rate of 0.3%/year in the residential sector and grows by 0.6%/year in the commercial sector from 2013 through 2040 in the AEO2015 Reference case (Figure 14 and Figure 15). Over the same period, the total number of households grows by 0.8%/year, and commercial floorspace increases by 1.0%/year (Table 4).
data available here and here
web chapter here

EIA-AEO-residential-consump-source-2040

EIA-AEO-residential-intensity-end-use-2040
End-use energy intensity, as measured by consumption per residential household or square foot of commercial floorspace, decreases in the Reference case as a result of increases in the efficiency of equipment for many end uses (Figure 16 and Figure 17). Federal standards and voluntary market transformation programs (e.g., Energy Star) target uses such as space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting, and refrigeration, as well as devices that are rapidly proliferating, such as set-top boxes and external power supplies.
data available here
web chapter here

Src:
U.S. Energy Information Administration. April 2015. “The Annual Energy Outlook 2015.” DOE/EIA-0383(2015)

Contacts
Director: John J. Conti john.conti@eia.gov
General questions: Paul Holtberg paul.holtberg@eia.gov
[more contacts listed in the report TOC]

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World Energy Council

The World Energy Council (WEC) is the UN-accredited global energy body comprised by more than 3000 member organizations drawn from governments, private and state corporations, academia, NGOs and energy-related stakeholders. WEC publishes many recurring reports, but in 2013 it released a set of projections to 2050.

The report focuses on two scenarios: a more consumer-driven scenario (called “Jazz”), and a more voter-driven scenario (called “Symphony”). Jazz has a focus on energy equity with priority given to achieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic growth. Symphony has a focus on achieving environmental sustainability through internationally coordinated policies and practices.

Primary Energy Mix, 2010 and 2050 (Jazz and Symphony)
2010 2050 Jazz 2050 Symphony
Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) 79% 77% 59%
Renewables 15% 20% 30%
Nuclear 6% 4% 11%

 

World Energy Council Jazz and Symphony Projections for North America, 2010-2040
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/y) 116 128 135 136 130 118 114 108 105
Total Electricity Generation (TWh/y) 5,214 6,152 6,903 7,728 8,024 6,100 6,733 7,695 8,057
Carbon Price (US$2010/tCO2) 8 15 21 28 21 28 55 70
CO2 – Emissions (GtCO2/y) 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.4 4.4 3.1
Carbon Capture, Use And Storage (GtCO2/y) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1

10 Key Messages

    Energy system complexity will increase by 2050.
    Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply.
    The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based.
    Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution to the energy trilemma.
    The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450ppm target without unacceptable carbon prices.
    A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewables: carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CC(U)S) is important and consumer behaviour needs changing.
    CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties up to 2050.
    Balancing the energy trilemma means making difficult choices.
    Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to deliver benefits to all consumers.
    Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver.

Scenarios are alternative views of the future which can be used to explore the implications of different sets of assumptions and to determine the degree of robustness of possible future developments. While most widely known scenarios are normative, the WEC has adopted a different, exploratory approach. ‘Normative’ in this context means that the scenarios are being used to drive the world towards a specific objective such as a particular atmospheric CO2 level. In contrast, the WEC with its exploratory scenarios Jazz and Symphony, attempts to provide decision makers with a neutral fact-based tool that they will be able to use to measure the potential impact of their choices in the future.

This approach can only be done successfully by a network like the WEC’s with its impartial and inclusive membership structure. Over 60 experts from more than 28 countries have contributed to the WEC’s scenario building process over a period of three years.

Src:
World Energy Council. 2013. “World Energy Scenarios: Composing Energy Futures to 2050

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BP

BP produces a 20-year forecast based on a single, most-likely growth trajectory.

BP-consump-by-type-2035
Oil consumption declines 0.5% p.a. over the Outlook as a result of falling demand in the transport sector. Coal declines by 2.9% p.a., driven by more aggressive environmental policies and competitively priced natural gas. Nuclear (-0.6% p.a.) demand also declines over the Outlook. Natural gas is the only fossil fuel to grow over the Outlook (1.3% p.a.). Renewables are the fastest growing group of fuels, increasing by 5.1% p.a.. Hydro-electric power increases 0.6% p.a., faster than total energy demand.

BP-primary-energy-shares-2035
Shares of fossil fuels in the energy mix decline from 83% today to 78% by 2035. Shares of renewables (including biofuels) increase from 3% in 2013 to 10% in 2035, while hydro remains stable throughout the Outlook at 6% and nuclear remains near 8% until losing market share in the last few years of the Outlook. Shares of natural gas grow from 30% in 2013 to 37% in 2035, overtaking oil as the leading fuel around 2025. More than half of the increase in energy demand from 2013-2035 is met by natural gas. Oil’s market share declines throughout the Outlook, reaching just 31% by 2035, the lowest share on record and down from a high of 48% in 1977. Coal’s share drops to just 9%, also the lowest on record. Renewables overtake coal as the third largest fuel by market share by the end of the Outlook.

BP-GDP-energy-emissions-2035
Continuing declines in energy intensity – the broadest indicator of improving energy efficiency across the economy – leads to a marked widening in the gap between GDP and energy consumption. Energy intensity declines by 39% by 2035 (-2.2% p.a.). Total carbon emissions from energy consumption decrease by 9% between 2013 and 2035 (-0.4% p.a.), with the rate of decline speeding up in the last half of the outlook, (-0.7% p.a. from 2025 to 2035).

Src:
BP. February 2015. “Energy Outlook 2035: Focus on North America.”
Excel tables (49.8KB)
Country Insights: US

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The International Renewable Energy Agency

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. As of December 2015, there are 144 member states, including the US.

The following excerpts come from a report on renewable energy sources and consumption in the US. Although the report focuses on the potential to dramatically increase renewable energy, the excerpts here highlight it’s projections for conservative, or business as usual, usage of renewables. The data in their report is from the US Energy Information Agency.

In 2010, the US was the second largest energy consumer in the world with a total final energy consumption (TFEC) of 64 exajoules (EJ), equivalent to 19% of the global TFEC (IEA, 2013a). The US TFEC is projected to remain stable in the period between 2010 and 2030 growing by only 4% according to US Energy Information Agency‘s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) (US EIA, 2013a). In the same time period, based on current policies or the Reference Case according to this study, the US share of renewable energy in the TFEC will only grow from 7.5% in 2010 to 10% in 2030, driven mostly by an increase in renewable power generation.

The Reference Case for the US was based on the U.S. Energy Information Agency’s “Annual Energy Outlook 2013”

Renewable energy share in TFEC of the US stood at 7.5% in 2010 (the base year of REmap 2030 analysis). This included 2.4% renewable power, 1.6% liquid biofuels and the remainder (3.4%) largely solid biomass in industry and building heating.

IRENA-primary-renewable energy-1970-2030

IRENA-renewable-shares-by-sector-2030

Src:
IRENA. 2015. “Renewable Energy Prospects: United States of America, REmap 2030 analysis.”



Smart Clothing and Fitness Devices


Summary

Smart clothing seems to be just around the corner, with several companies already selling specialty items (athletic wear, baby clothes, etc) embedded with sensors. However, quantitative forecasts describing the prevalence of smart clothing in the next 10 years or so are hard to find. Gartner made a forecast to 2016 back in 2014. Tractica has a forecast to 2020. Both forecasts describe millions of units shipped worldwide. Although it’s difficult to extrapolate market penetration, both reports suggest that smart clothing will be more prevalent than wearable devices. Other research firms and analysts are skeptical of such a swift uptake by smart garments, instead forecasting dominance by other wearable devices.

Research Excerpts

Tractica forecasts that smart clothing shipments will grow from 140,000 units in 2013 to 10.2 million units by 2020, while body sensor shipments will decrease from 3.0 million units in 2013 to 1.2 million by 2017, before rising again to 3.1 million units in 2020.

Src:
Tractica. May 4, 2015. “The Wearable Devices Market is Poised for Expansion into Smart Clothing and Body Sensors.”
Executive Summary
Chart from above report:
Tractica-smart-clothes-worldwide-units-2020
[via Global Information]

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Worldwide Wearable Electronic Fitness Devices Shipments (millions of units)
Device Category 2013 2014 2015 2016
Smart Wristband 30 20 17 19
Sports Watch 14 18 21 24
Other Fitness Monitor 18 20 12 15
Chest Strap 11 12.1 8 7.3
Smart Garment 0.01 0.1 10.1 26
Total Market 73.01 70.2 68.1 91.3

Src:
Gartner. November 18, 2014. “Gartner Says in 2015, 50 Percent of People Considering Buying a Smart Wristband Will Choose a Smartwatch Instead.”

Note: Angela McIntyre, Gartner research director – gave an interview to The Guardian. Might be available for comment.

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Growth will be “largely driven by the sales of wrist-based trackers, while hundreds of thousands of connected garments used by professional sports teams showcase wearable technology’s most advanced capabilities.” Hundreds of thousands of thousands of connected garments is hardly a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of Fitbits, Xiaomis, Apple Watches, Jawbones and other devices which will be coining in the revenue by 2020. [emphasis mine]

Src:
James Stables. November 18, 2015. “Juniper Report Skeptical on Smart Clothing but Says Fitness Trackers are Set to Soar.” Wearable.com.

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In our latest smart glasses report, we expect over 3 million smart glasses to be in use in enterprise by 2018, with nearly 6 million users. [worldwide, I think]

Src:
Juniper Research. 2015. “The World In 2020 – A Technology Vision.”

Note: The White paper seems to be referring to this paid research report.

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technalysis-combined-wearables-2020

The US market for wearables is forecast to evolve more quickly than worldwide, leading to a peak of 68.3 million units in 2019, then dropping to 62.9 million in 2020.

Smart watches will be the top category as of this year in the US, followed by smart bands/bracelets.

In 2020, headworn wearables are expected to become the number two segment.

Src:
Bob O’Donnell. May 2015. “The Slow Build: Smart Wearables Forecast, 2014-2020.” Technalysis Research.

Note: This report does not include clothing with embedded sensors. Bob O’Donnell is skeptical of the ability of smart clothing to surpass other wearables in the foreseeable future.