Extrapolations

This is a collection of long-term forecasts based on quantitative data from diverse sectors. Long-term means 20 years or more. Diverse means forecasts in a wide range of activities such as transportation, education, food, shelter, entertainment, technology, etc. You can help grow the collection. Please check our list of desired indicators and submit suggestions to extrapolations@kk.org. We're also collecting and crossposting any and all attempts to extrapolate the future on Tumblr and Pinterest. You can follow us on Twitter too.

Luker on e/sports


Ask

Expert Perspective:
Recent talks/interviews with Rich Luker (ESPN Sports Poll, Luker on Trends)

Results

State of Sports for Gen Z Kids: Building Lifelong Affection in a Hyper-Competitive Market

Generation Z kids are bombarded by a tsunami of highly accessible and enticing alternatives to sports each day. What effect will this have on the long-term outlook for the professional sports industry? How can the sports industry adapt to this reality in a manner that builds a relationship TODAY so that kids will be engaged with sports tomorrow?
Rich Luker, the Founder of the ESPN Sports Poll, and Terence Burke, SVP of Research and Editor-in-Chief of KidSay’s Trend Tracker report, will describe a new alliance of the two groups and present the first, ever, “State of Sports for Generation Z” convergenceing kids from 5-17.

From Pokemon Go to Esports: Lessons and Opportunities

At the 2017 Project Play Summit, experts weigh in on how to assure more free play for kids through technology. What lessons can be learned from the popularity of Pokemon Go and esports? Moderating the session is Jeremy Goldberg, President, LeagueApps. Panelists are Angela Ruggiero, Co-Founder/Managing Director, Sports Innovation Lab; Chris Kluwe, Former NFL Punter; Vikram Grover, Senior Director of Business Development, Niantic; and Rich Luker, Founder, Luker on Trends.

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Posted by cc on February 23, 2018 at 9:33 pm | comment count



Esports industry evolution


Ask

Qualitative Discussion:
Evolution of esports

Results

Gamelab Barcelona 2017 – Mike Sepso – Shaping eSports right
YouTube
Mike Sepso is Senior Vice President of Activision Blizzard where he runs Media Networks, a division devoted to creating the best esports experiences for fans across games, platforms and geographies. Prior to joining Activision Blizzard, Mike was the co-founder and president of Major League Gaming (MLG), a global leader in esports, focusing on strategy, key partnerships, corporate development and overseeing all product and technology development, including the launch of MLG.TV. In his conversation with Dot Esports journalist Thiemo Bräutigan, Mike goes through Activision Blizzard’s Esports strategy for the comming years, and comments on the latest news around the Overwatch Global League.

“Esports: Big Buzz or Big Business?”
Hashtag Sports, June 2017
YouTube
Leading executives from the world of sports business, consumer brands, media and technology engage in a lively debate on whether the industry will deliver on its $1bn promise or, as some predict, will prove to be a false dawn for the sector and its investors. A panel of experts will discuss how the emergence of eSports as a global mainstream phenomenon is driving their own strategies, be it as a marketing vehicle or an investment prospect, while also dissecting the argument of those who doubt the long-term commercial value of the eSports ecosystem.

“Booming business of esports sets sights on conquering mainstream audiences”
VentureBeat, February 12, 2018

“League of Lawyers: Esports is creating a new class of white-collar jobs”
VentureBeat, February 6, 2018

“The Esports Playbook”
Nielsen launched an Esports division in August 2017. Their inaugural audience report includes a final chapter called “What’s Next” which talks about the future of esports on linear TV, as well as the future for VR/AR esports.

“The who, what and why of the World Esports Association”
Polygon, May 2016
Discussion of the formation of the World Esports Association, a league representing competitions organized by ESL (a tournament organizer), and focused only on one game (Counter-Strike: Global Offensive) at the time of launch. One of the goals of the organization is to further professionalized esports by introducing player representation, standardized regulations, and revenue sharing for teams.

Tags: ,

Posted by cc on at 9:33 pm | comment count



Number of pro gamers vs. pro athletes


Ask

How Many:
Professional esports players (pro gamers)
Contrast with BLS data for professional athletes

Results

*

The esports players figures above do not reflect the newly developing esports leagues, of which there are at least 3:
Overwatch League (OWL) – 12 teams with 6-12 players per team
NBA 2K League – 17 teams with 6 players per team
eMLS – 19 teams (details are thin, more forthcoming)

OWL, which is being launched by game publisher Blizzard, will pay a minimum salary of $50,000 per year, with players signing up for one-year contracts at a time. On top of the base wage, players will get a share of any bonuses the team accures. Half of all tournament prize money secured by a team will be shared between the players. Teams can have between six and 12 players…There are currently seven teams in the Overwatch League, drawn from cities across the US, along with a pair of teams from South Korea and China.

src:
TechRadar, July 2017
“Want to be a pro gamer? This is what you could earn playing Overwatch”

More info on the owners and affiliated cities is reported by Engadget.

The NBA is partnering with the developer of the NBA2K game franchise to create an esports league, which will be called “NBA 2K eLeague.” According to the NBA, each of its 30 teams will eventually have its own eSports squad, just as they’re represented in the WNBA or the lower-tier D-League. Every 2K eLeague team will be made up of five human players, which the NBA plans to treat the same way it does athletes who play for the San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks or any of its other NBA, WNBA or D-League clubs. There will be contracts and endorsement deals at stake, for instance. The main difference here is that there’s room for more diversity, since these pro players can be of any age, gender or race to play on the same court — even if it is a virtual one.

src:
Engadget, Feb 2017
“In the NBA’s eSports league, diversity means a new kind of athlete”

The NBA 2K League Qualifier took place in January, 2017.
An 85-person draft was created.
17 teams will be created at first.
Competitive salaries and benefits, plus additional options for more earnings

src:
Forbes, Dec 2017
“NBA 2K League: How To Qualify, Salary Info, Draft Process, Twitter Account, Rules And More”

*

Even before the three leagues described above launched, there have been very popular esports teams with some team members earning their livlihoods through tournament earnings, streaming income, and other play-related earnings (eg: team salaries and room and board).

Neilsen ranks the 7 most popular esports teams in the US as: Cloud9
Optic Gaming
Team Liquid
Fnatic
SK Gaming
Counter Logic Gaming
Ninjas in Pyjamas

srcs:
Nielsen, 2017.
The Esports Playbook

As an example, Cloud9 fields teams for 11 games. As of the time of publication for this blog entry, their 11 teams include 12 American players, as well as 6 American staff members (eg: coaches).
League of Legends: 7 American players, 2 American staff
Counter-Strike:Global Offensive: 5 American players, 3 American staff
Hearthstone: 1 American staff

*

Here’s a bit of general commentary from Sports Illustrated:

The current state of professional gaming mirrors the beginning days of the NFL and NBA. In those league’s inchoate stages, players often had to work other jobs to supplement their seasonal salaries. Even today, some professional athletes—like pro lacrosse players—hold other jobs to bolster their income. The same is true for most professional gamers.

Still, 18 gamers made more than $500,000 in esports prize money alone last year, and 195 made more than $100,000. Similar to professional golfers and tennis players, prize money makes up only a portion of the top gamers’ yearly income. Some are paid salaries by their teams, and many parlay massive followings built from live-streaming their gaming sessions into sponsorships with game equipment and manufacturing companies.

The number of full-time professional gamers is, as of right now, modest. But if esports stays on its path toward mainstream appeal and the sponsorship and TV dollars continue to flow in, it won’t be long before dozens of gamers are making more than $1 million every year. In 2017, we’ll take a step closer to that reality.

src:
Sports Illustrated, Feb 2017
“What to expect from the booming esports industry in 2017″

*

Here’s commentary from 2013 on the number of pro gamers:

Being able to subsist solely on a pro gaming salary is a lofty dream indeed. “Business Insider” and e-Sports Earnings reported that only 60 professional gamers worldwide have earned more than $100,000 in prize money, as of 2013. Speaking to “The New York Times” in 2012, Sundance Giovanni of Major League Gaming estimates that “only about 40 people in the U.S. can make a living playing video games. I’d like to get it to a hundred. I think we’re a year or two away from that.”

src:
Chron, 2013, citing NYT (inferred via archive.org)
“Salaries of Pro Gamers”

*

Here’s a bit of a profile of a pro gamer:

There’s a reason why eAthletes are so competitive—their job is easy to lose. As fun as the perks might sound, for Towey, Evil Geniuses, and hundreds of other pro gamers, the eSports life is a grind, not some glamorous dream job. Tournaments aren’t always enough to pay the bills—especially if you don’t win. That’s a big reason that some eAthletes, such as Ryan “State” Visbeck, use streaming to pay the bills.

Visbeck is a 23-year-old professional player of StarCraft II, a strategy game in which players control whole armies rather than controlling a single character as one would in Halo. As a “freelance” pro player—one who isn’t currently tied to a particular pro team—Visbeck spends his days broadcasting his StarCraft II games on streaming service Twitch. The service allows fans to watch Visbeck’s games live as he plays them, and also includes a chat function so they can interact with one another and the pro himself. Visbeck earns money through Twitch streaming subscriptions, which give viewers perks like special chat icons and access to his slate of recorded videos, as well as fan donations. It’s enough to support him as he lives in South Korea, where StarCraft has been extremely popular for more than a decade. Originally from California, Visbeck moved abroad to train with a pro StarCraft team in 2013 and has lived there ever since.

src:
ComPlex, Aug 2016
“eSports Ain’t Easy: Inside the Everyday Grind of Pro Gaming”

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Posted by cc on at 9:32 pm | comment count



Ticket prices for conventional sports and esports


Ask

Extrapolate NFL ticket prices (and other major sports ticket prices)

Contrast with Esports ticket prices

Results

Note: This is all historic data. Some of this could be extrapolated, but we’d need to estimate some data values.

*

Average Ticket Price 2003-2012 for MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL

avg-ticket-price-2003-2012

src: someone using Team Market Report data

*

Ticket prices for traditional championship games 2011-2018

avg-champ-tix-price-2011-2018

src:
VividSeats, February 2017

*

Avg NFL ticket prices 2006-2016

Avg-NFL-tix-prices-2006-2016

src:
Statista citing Team Marketing Report

*

Fan Cost Index 1991-2016

Fan Cost Index includes:
Two adult average price tickets
Two child average price tickets
Four small soft drinks
Two small beers
Four hot dogs
Two programs
Two adult-size caps
Parking

Fan-Cost-Index-major-sports-1992-2016

Interactive version here

src:
Russell Scibetti, The Business of Sports, Feb 2017
using data from Team Marketing Report

Note: Scibetti also points to another source for aggregated sports business data, by Rodney Fort, Professor of Sport Management at the University of Michigan.

*

Here is a sample of recent ticket prices for major esports tournaments:

2016 League of Legends semifinals
New York, Madison Square Garden
$57-$75
src

2016 League of Legends Championship Series
Los Angeles, Staples Center
$46.50-$71/ticket
src

2017 League of Legends semifinals
Shanghai, Shanghai Oriental Sports Center
$26-$70 (limited number of international tickets)
src

2017 League of Legends Finals
Beijing, Beijing National Stadium (Bird’s Nest)
$41-$185
src

2018 North American League of Legends Championship Series – Spring Finals
two day event
Miami, The Fillmore Miami
$35-$65 for one day
$65-$110 for two days
src

2017 The International Dota 2 Championship
Seattle, KeyArena
$100-$200/ticket (multi-day event)
src

2017 Hearthstone Championship Tour’s Summer Championship
Blizzard Arena Los Angeles (450 capacity)
$15 single day
$40 full weekend
src

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Posted by cc on at 9:32 pm | comment count



Esports vs. Conventional Sports in Revenues


Ask

Extrapolate total revenues for esports vs. total revenues for conventional sports

Results

Esports-vs-NHL-growth-curves

Source for Esports Revs:
BizInsider, March 2017
citing New Zoo

Source for NHL Revs:
Statista

*

Esports-vs-big5-growth-curves

Source for Esports Revs:
BizInsider, March 2017
citing New Zoo

Sources for Big 5 Revs:
PwC Sports Outlook, October 2015 (for 2010-2011)
PwC Sports Outlook, October 2017 (for 2012-2021)

*

CC’s creation notes:

Excel file in One Cloud: Esports-vs-NHL-Rev-Extrapolations.xls
Chart photos in DropBox: Esports-vs-NHL-growth-curves.png
Esports-vs-big5-growth-curves.png
cc-wfh-notes – official-future – flip-point-charts

Using “Growth Trend” values projections in Excel

Instructions:

Select at least two cells that contain the starting values for the trend.

Hold down the right mouse button, drag the fill handle in the direction that you want to fill with increasing values or decreasing values, release the mouse button, and then click Growth Trend on the shortcut menu.

Resource for creating highlights on flip-points

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Posted by cc on at 9:31 pm | comment count



Media


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources:

GLOBAL
ownership vs. access ($ millions), 2009-2019, McKinsey
total media consumption CAGR, 2010-2015, Zenith
total media consumption min/day, 2010/2015-2018, Zenith
total internet consump min/day, 2015/2018, Zenith
mobile internet consump min/day, 2016, Zenith
all other (besides mobile internet) media consump % change, 2016, Zenith
desktop internet consump min/day, 2010/2014/2016, Zenith
traditional cinema consump % change, 2016, Zenith
traditional outdoor consump % change, 2016, Zenith
traditional television consump min/day, % of consump, % change, 2015/2016/2018, Zenith
traditional radio consump % change, 2016, Zenith
Traditional newspapers consump, % change, 2016, Zenith
traditional magazines consump % change, 2016, Zenith
consumer spending, billions, 2020, Activate
digital video streaming
consumer ebooks
digital music streaming
digital newspapers
esports
digital magazines

UNITED STATES PER ADULT
all digital media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
all mobile (nonvoice) media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile social networks time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile video time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
mobile other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
all desk/lap-top media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top video time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top social media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
desk/lap-top other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
other connected devices time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital TV time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital print media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital newspapers time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
non-digital other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer
all digital and non-digital media total time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

UNITED STATES, TOTAL AMONG ALL USERS
gaming hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
messaging hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
social media hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
audio hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate
video hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

UNITED STATES
subscription video on demand, subscribers by number of services, 2016-2020, Activate
music revenues by sale type, $ and CAGR, 2006-2016, Activate
music streaming revenue, ads vs. paid subscriptions, 2013-2020, Activate
smart speakers household penetration, millions, 2015-2020, Activate
aggregate media spending CAGR, 2016-2020, Activate
internet advertising
internet access
out-of-home advertising
video games
music
tv advertising
business-to-business
book publishing
radio
cinema
tv & video
magazine publishing
newspaper publishing
internet users % of population, 2000-2014, ITU
broadband subscriptions, 2000-2015, ITU
wired-line vs. wireless users, 2000-2014, Activate

In addition to these data sets, I’ve also noted a large set of VR predictions by Jesse Schell.

Findings

General Media Consumption

McKinsey publishes an annual global media spending/revenues report examining the last five years of historic data and forecasting trends for the next five years. The most recent report includes the following ownership vs. access chart:

mckinsey-global-ownership-vs-access-2009-2019

Note: Ownership consists of home video physical sales, physical recorded music sales and recorded music digital downloads. Access consists of OTT digital
video, recorded music digital subscriptions and recorded music ad-supported digital streaming.

Src:
McKinsey&Company. July 2016.
Global Media Report 2015: Global Industry Overview.” P.21.

Citing:
McKinsey & Company, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Older McKinsey reports are available, which offer some older, historic data points. For example, the 2014-2018 Outlook includes some historic data going back to 2013.

*

Zenith (part of Publicis Media) is a marking consulting firm. It’s annual, global survey (two years running), “Media Consumption Forecasts,” estimates recent, current, and near-term media consumption patterns. The current report forecasts general media consumption trends two years out, to 2018. The report estimates time spent reading newspapers and magazines, watching television, listening to the radio, visiting the cinema, using the internet, and viewing outdoor advertising while out of the home. 71 countries are covered, and regional estimates are available (although the freely available excerpts below are global).

Excerpts:

Total media consumption
2010-2015: +7.9% (driven by internet consump), avg +1.5% per year
2010: 403 min/day
2015: 435 min/day
2016: +1.4%
2017: +1.2%
2018: 448 min/day, +0.4% (mobile consump levels off)

Total internet consumption
2015: 110 min/day
2018: 31% global media consumption

Mobile internet consumption
2016: +27.7%, 86 min/day, accounting for 71% of internet consump

Overall media consumption
2016: +1.4%

All other media consumption (besides mobile internet)
2016: -3.4%

Desktop internet consumption
2010: 36 min/day
2014: 52 min/day
2016: 36 min/day

Traditional cinema consumption
2016: -0.5%

Traditional outdoor consumption
2016: -0.8%

Traditional television consumption
[declining, but still the most popular medium]
2015: 177 min/day, 41% of media consumption
2016: -1.5%
2018: 38% of media consumption

Traditional radio consumption
2016: -2.4%

Traditional newspapers consumption
2016: -5.6%

Traditional magazines consumption
2016: -6.7%

Note: [The traditional media] figures only refer to time spent with these media in their traditional forms – with printed publications and broadcast television channels and radio stations. Much of the time that consumers spend on the internet is devoted to consuming content that has been produced by traditional publishers and broadcasters.

Src:
Zenith. June 2016.
Media Consumption Forecasts.
Via:
Contact:
Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting, jbarnard1@publicisgroupe.net
Tim Collison, Global Communications Director, tcolliso@publicisgroupe.net

*

eMarketer has been publishing short-term forecasts of general media consumption longer than Zenith. It’s latest forecasts to 2018 show similar trends, although the total time consumed estimates are quite different.

Excerpts:

emarketer-media-consump-2012-2018

While mobile devices enable people to consume media content anywhere at any time, the numbers suggest a saturation point is near—and that increased time spent with one medium will tend to come at the expense of time spent with another, as explored in a new eMarketer report, “US Time Spent with Media: eMarketer’s Updated Estimates for Spring 2016.”

Src:
eMarketer. June 2016.
Growth in Time Spent with Media Is Slowing.

*

Technology strategist Michael Wolf, of Activate, recently presented a number of media forecasts at WSJDLive, The Wall Street Jounral’s global tech conference.

Here are excerpts:

activate-time-with-media-cagr-2015-2020

activate-svod-subs-per-subscriber-2016-2020

activate-music-streaming-subs-vs-ads-2013-2020

activate-music-streaming-rev-2006-2016

activate-smart-speakers-2015-2020

activate-global-consumer-spend-digi-media-2015-2020

Src:
Activate. October 2016.
Tech and Media Outlook 2017.

*

PwC produces an annual 5-year outlook for the entertainment and media industry which includes forecasts of consumer spending and advertising revenues.

Here are forecasts for US aggregate media spending for 2016-2020:

pwc-us-aggregate-media-spending-cagr-2016-2020

Src:
PRNewswire. June 2016.
PwC’s Entertainment & Media Outlook Forecasts U.S. Industry Spending to Reach $720 Billion by 2020.

citing:
PwC. June 2016.
“PwC Global Media and Entertainment Outlook: 2016-2020.”

*

PwC’s Chris Lederer, Partner, PwC’s Strategy&, Entertainment & Media practice, gave the following generalizations and examples from the latest report:

“At the highest level our annual Global entertainment and Media Outlook shows a mature media industry with slowing growth prospects.”

“The countries with large populations under 35 are faster growers than countries with larger aged populations,” Lederer observes.

More specifically, PwC’s analysis found that “on average, E&M spending in the 10 youngest markets is growing three times as rapidly as in the 10 oldest markets.”

pwc-consumer-magazine-growth-cagr-2015-2020

2016 is the year when global Internet advertising revenue will surpass TV advertising

pwc-global-tv-internet-advertising-2011-2020

src:
Damian Radcliffe. August 2016.
PwC’s global media outlook 2016-2020: six key trends.
The Media Briefing.

***

Internet Users

ITU publishes an annual estimate of the percentage of internet users in each country.

United States, 2000-2014

Src:
ITU. 2016.
Percentage of Individuals using the Internet (excel).
[ICT Statistics]

***

Broadband Subscriptions

itu-bu-global-broadband-subs-2000-2015

Src:
Andrew Meola. Jun 2016.
All media consumption is declining – with one exception.
Business Insider.
Citing: ITU

ITU data is here:

Src:
ITU. 2016.
“Key ICT indicators for developed and developing countries and the world (totals and penetration rates).” [XLS]
[ICT Statistics]

***

Wired-Line Vs. Wireless Users

activate-wireline-wireless-penetration-rates-2000-2014

Src:
Activate. October 2016.
Tech and Media Outlook 2017.

***

VR Predictions

Game Designer Jesse Schell has made a large set of 40 (mostly) falsifiable predictions for VR, looking out as far as 2025.

Src:
Jesse Schell. March 2016.
40 VR/AR Predictions – GDC 2016

Tags: , , ,

Posted by cc on November 18, 2016 at 9:00 am | comment count



Occupations


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources:
unemployment rate, 2010-2060, OECD
white collar jobs growth, 1900-2000, AFL-CIO
occupations with most job growth (by number and percent), 2014/2024, BLS
occupations with the largest job declines (by number and percent), 2014/2024, BLS

In addition to these datasets, I’ve noted a couple jobs projections by futurist Thomas Frey, and a study estimating the impacts of future technology on jobs in the next couple decades.

Findings

Unemployment Rate

oecd-unemployment-2010-2060

Src:
Knoema

Citing:
OECD. May 2014.
OECD Long Term Baseline
[data below]

*

NAIRU unemployment rate with non-accelerating inflation rate, 2010-2060

Src:
OECD. May 2014.
Economic Outlook No 95: Long-term baseline projections
Variable: NAIRU unemployment rate with non-accelerating inflation rate
Country: United States

***

White Collar Jobs Growth

White collar occupations as a percent of total US Workforce

aflcio-white-collar-jobs-1900-2000

Src:
Marc Cenedella. January 2010.
Great News! We’ve Become A White-Collar Nation.
Business Insider.

Citing:
AFL-CIO. 2003.
“Current Statistics on White Collar Employees.”

***

Fastest Growing and Declining Occupations

Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth (raw numbers), 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands)

Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.
Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth, 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands).

Employment Projections.

Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth (percent increase), 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands)

Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.
Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth, 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands).

Employment Projections.

Table 1.6 Occupations with the largest job declines (raw numbers), 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands)

Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.
Table 1.6 Occupations with the largest job declines, 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands).
Employment Projections.

Table 1.5 Fastest declining occupations, 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands)

Src:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.
Table 1.5 Fastest declining occupations (percent), 2014 and projected 2024
(Numbers in thousands).”
Employment Projections.

***

General Predictions

162 Future Jobs: Preparing for Jobs that Don’t Yet Exist.
Thomas Frey. March 2014.

*

101 Endangered Jobs by 2030.
Thomas Frey. November 2014.

*

The Future Of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerisation?
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne. September 2013.
Oxford University.

Abstract:
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.

Tags:

Posted by cc on November 17, 2016 at 9:00 am | comment count



Media


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources:

GLOBAL

ownership vs. access ($ millions), 2009-2019, McKinsey

total media consumption CAGR, 2010-2015, Zenith

total media consumption min/day, 2010/2015-2018, Zenith

total internet consump min/day, 2015/2018, Zenith

mobile internet consump min/day, 2016, Zenith

all other (besides mobile internet) media consump % change, 2016, Zenith

desktop internet consump min/day, 2010/2014/2016, Zenith

traditional cinema consump % change, 2016, Zenith

traditional outdoor consump % change, 2016, Zenith

traditional television consump min/day, % of consump, % change, 2015/2016/2018, Zenith

traditional radio consump % change, 2016, Zenith

Traditional newspapers consump, % change, 2016, Zenith

traditional magazines consump % change, 2016, Zenith

consumer spending, billions, 2020, Activate

digital video streaming

consumer ebooks

digital music streaming

digital newspapers

esports

digital magazines

UNITED STATES PER ADULT

all digital media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

all mobile (nonvoice) media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

mobile radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

mobile social networks time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

mobile video time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

mobile other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

all desk/lap-top media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

desk/lap-top video time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

desk/lap-top social media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

desk/lap-top radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

desk/lap-top other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

other connected devices time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

non-digital TV time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

non-digital radio time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

non-digital print media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

non-digital newspapers time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

non-digital other media time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

all digital and non-digital media total time/day, 2012-2018, eMarketer

UNITED STATES, TOTAL AMONG ALL USERS

gaming hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

messaging hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

social media hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

audio hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

video hours/day and CAGR, 2015/2020, Activate

UNITED STATES

subscription video on demand, subscribers by number of services, 2016-2020, Activate

music revenues by sale type, $ and CAGR, 2006-2016, Activate

music streaming revenue, ads vs. paid subscriptions, 2013-2020, Activate

smart speakers household penetration, millions, 2015-2020, Activate

aggregate media spending CAGR, 2016-2020, Activate

internet advertising

internet access

out-of-home advertising

video games

music

tv advertising

business-to-business

book publishing

radio

cinema

tv & video

magazine publishing

newspaper publishing

internet users % of population, 2000-2014, ITU

broadband subscriptions, 2000-2015, ITU

wired-line vs. wireless users, 2000-2014, Activate

In addition to these data sets, I’ve also noted a large set of VR predictions by Jesse Schell.

Findings

General Media Consumption

McKinsey publishes an annual global media spending/revenues report examining the last five years of historic data and forecasting trends for the next five years. The most recent report includes the following ownership vs. access chart:

mckinsey-global-ownership-vs-access-2009-2019

Note: Ownership consists of home video physical sales, physical recorded music sales and recorded music digital downloads. Access consists of OTT digital

video, recorded music digital subscriptions and recorded music ad-supported digital streaming.

Src:

McKinsey&Company. July 2016.

Global Media Report 2015: Global Industry Overview.” P.21.

Citing:

McKinsey & Company, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Older McKinsey reports are available, which offer some older, historic data points. For example, the 2014-2018 Outlook includes some historic data going back to 2013.

*

Zenith (part of Publicis Media) is a marking consulting firm. It’s annual, global survey (two years running), “Media Consumption Forecasts,” estimates recent, current, and near-term media consumption patterns. The current report forecasts general media consumption trends two years out, to 2018. The report estimates time spent reading newspapers and magazines, watching television, listening to the radio, visiting the cinema, using the internet, and viewing outdoor advertising while out of the home. 71 countries are covered, and regional estimates are available (although the freely available excerpts below are global).

Excerpts:

Total media consumption

2010-2015: +7.9% (driven by internet consump), avg +1.5% per year

2010: 403 min/day

2015: 435 min/day

2016: +1.4%

2017: +1.2%

2018: 448 min/day, +0.4% (mobile consump levels off)

Total internet consumption

2015: 110 min/day

2018: 31% global media consumption

Mobile internet consumption

2016: +27.7%, 86 min/day, accounting for 71% of internet consump

Overall media consumption

2016: +1.4%

All other media consumption (besides mobile internet)

2016: -3.4%

Desktop internet consumption

2010: 36 min/day

2014: 52 min/day

2016: 36 min/day

Traditional cinema consumption

2016: -0.5%

Traditional outdoor consumption

2016: -0.8%

Traditional television consumption

[declining, but still the most popular medium]

2015: 177 min/day, 41% of media consumption

2016: -1.5%

2018: 38% of media consumption

Traditional radio consumption

2016: -2.4%

Traditional newspapers consumption

2016: -5.6%

Traditional magazines consumption

2016: -6.7%

Note: [The traditional media] figures only refer to time spent with these media in their traditional forms – with printed publications and broadcast television channels and radio stations. Much of the time that consumers spend on the internet is devoted to consuming content that has been produced by traditional publishers and broadcasters.

Src:

Zenith. June 2016.

Media Consumption Forecasts.

Via:

Contact:

Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting, jbarnard1@publicisgroupe.net

Tim Collison, Global Communications Director, tcolliso@publicisgroupe.net

*

eMarketer has been publishing short-term forecasts of general media consumption longer than Zenith. It’s latest forecasts to 2018 show similar trends, although the total time consumed estimates are quite different.

Excerpts:

emarketer-media-consump-2012-2018

While mobile devices enable people to consume media content anywhere at any time, the numbers suggest a saturation point is near—and that increased time spent with one medium will tend to come at the expense of time spent with another, as explored in a new eMarketer report, “US Time Spent with Media: eMarketer’s Updated Estimates for Spring 2016.”

Src:

eMarketer. June 2016.

Growth in Time Spent with Media Is Slowing.

*

Technology strategist Michael Wolf, of Activate, recently presented a number of media forecasts at WSJDLive, The Wall Street Jounral’s global tech conference.

Here are excerpts:

activate-time-with-media-cagr-2015-2020

activate-svod-subs-per-subscriber-2016-2020

activate-music-streaming-subs-vs-ads-2013-2020

activate-music-streaming-rev-2006-2016

activate-smart-speakers-2015-2020

activate-global-consumer-spend-digi-media-2015-2020

Src:

Activate. October 2016.

Tech and Media Outlook 2017.

*

PwC produces an annual 5-year outlook for the entertainment and media industry which includes forecasts of consumer spending and advertising revenues.

Here are forecasts for US aggregate media spending for 2016-2020:

pwc-us-aggregate-media-spending-cagr-2016-2020

Src:

PRNewswire. June 2016.

PwC’s Entertainment & Media Outlook Forecasts U.S. Industry Spending to Reach $720 Billion by 2020.

citing:

PwC. June 2016.

“PwC Global Media and Entertainment Outlook: 2016-2020.”

*

PwC’s Chris Lederer, Partner, PwC’s Strategy&, Entertainment & Media practice, gave the following generalizations and examples from the latest report:

“At the highest level our annual Global entertainment and Media Outlook shows a mature media industry with slowing growth prospects.”

“The countries with large populations under 35 are faster growers than countries with larger aged populations,” Lederer observes.

More specifically, PwC’s analysis found that “on average, E&M spending in the 10 youngest markets is growing three times as rapidly as in the 10 oldest markets.”

pwc-consumer-magazine-growth-cagr-2015-2020

2016 is the year when global Internet advertising revenue will surpass TV advertising

pwc-global-tv-internet-advertising-2011-2020

src:

Damian Radcliffe. August 2016.

PwC’s global media outlook 2016-2020: six key trends.

The Media Briefing.

***

Internet Users

ITU publishes an annual estimate of the percentage of internet users in each country.

United States, 2000-2014

Src:

ITU. 2016.

Percentage of Individuals using the Internet (excel).
[ICT Statistics]

***

Broadband Subscriptions

itu-bu-global-broadband-subs-2000-2015

Src:

Andrew Meola. Jun 2016.

All media consumption is declining – with one exception.

Business Insider.

Citing: ITU

ITU data is here:

Src:

ITU. 2016.

“Key ICT indicators for developed and developing countries and the world (totals and penetration rates).” [XLS]
[ICT Statistics]

***

Wired-Line Vs. Wireless Users

activate-wireline-wireless-penetration-rates-2000-2014

Src:

Activate. October 2016.

Tech and Media Outlook 2017.

***

VR Predictions

Game Designer Jesse Schell has made a large set of 40 (mostly) falsifiable predictions for VR, looking out as far as 2025.

Src:

Jesse Schell. March 2016.

40 VR/AR Predictions – GDC 2016

Media was originally published on Extrapolations

Tags: , , ,

Posted by on November 15, 2016 at 9:02 pm | comment count



Occupations


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources:

unemployment rate, 2010-2060, OECD

white collar jobs growth, 1900-2000, AFL-CIO

occupations with most job growth (by number and percent), 2014/2024, BLS

occupations with the largest job declines (by number and percent), 2014/2024, BLS

In addition to these datasets, I’ve noted a couple jobs projections by futurist Thomas Frey, and a study estimating the impacts of future technology on jobs in the next couple decades.

Findings

Unemployment Rate

oecd-unemployment-2010-2060

Src:
Knoema

Citing:

OECD. May 2014.

OECD Long Term Baseline

[data below]

*

NAIRU unemployment rate with non-accelerating inflation rate, 2010-2060

Src:

OECD. May 2014.

Economic Outlook No 95: Long-term baseline projections

Variable: NAIRU unemployment rate with non-accelerating inflation rate

Country: United States

***

White Collar Jobs Growth

White collar occupations as a percent of total US Workforce

aflcio-white-collar-jobs-1900-2000

Src:

Marc Cenedella. January 2010.

Great News! We’ve Become A White-Collar Nation.

Business Insider.

Citing:

AFL-CIO. 2003.

“Current Statistics on White Collar Employees.”

***

Fastest Growing and Declining Occupations

Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth (raw numbers), 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands)

Src:

Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.

Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth, 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands).


Employment Projections.

Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth (percent increase), 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands)

Src:

Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.

Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth, 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands).


Employment Projections.

Table 1.6 Occupations with the largest job declines (raw numbers), 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands)

Src:

Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.

Table 1.6 Occupations with the largest job declines, 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands).

Employment Projections.

Table 1.5 Fastest declining occupations, 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands)

Src:

Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016.

Table 1.5 Fastest declining occupations (percent), 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands).”

Employment Projections.

***

General Predictions

162 Future Jobs: Preparing for Jobs that Don’t Yet Exist.

Thomas Frey. March 2014.

*

101 Endangered Jobs by 2030.

Thomas Frey. November 2014.

*

The Future Of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerisation?

Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne. September 2013.

Oxford University.

Abstract:

We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.

Occupations was originally published on Extrapolations

Tags:

Posted by on at 1:01 pm | comment count



Crime


Summary

This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources:
violent/property crime rates, 1994-2015, U.S. Dept. of Justice
white collar crime prosecutions, 1995-2015, TRAC
executions, 1976-2016 & 1608-2002, Death Penalty Info Center
adult correctional population, 2014-1980, DoJ
incarceration rate, 1925-2014, DoJ and Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Stats
state and federal confinement and community facilities, 1979-2005 (quinquennial), DoJ

Findings

Crime Rates

Crime in the United States
by Volume and Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants, 1994–2015


Google Spreadsheet

Note: The violent crime figures include the offenses of murder, rape (legacy definition), robbery, and aggravated assault.

Note: The property crime figures include the offenses of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle thefts.

Src for 1996-2015:
U.S. Department of Justice. Accessed October 24, 2016.
Crime in the United States 2015.
Table 1: Crime in the United States.

Src for 1994, 1995:
U.S. Department of Justice. Accessed October 24, 2016.
Crime in the United States 1995.
Section II: Crime Index Offenses Reported [PDF]

*

White Collar Crime

For every 100,000 people in the United States, there are 5,317 arrests that are directly related to white collar crime.

In August 2014, it was reported that there were 512 total white collar prosecutions that occurred in the United States.

On a year to year comparison with August 2013, the 512 incidents are 6.2% lower.

It is estimated that 1 out of every 4 households will become the victim of a white collar crime at some point.

More than 88% of white collar crime incidents are never reported to law enforcement agencies, although about half of all incidents are reported to someone, such as a supervisor.

White collar crime has been moving away from stealing money from companies to stealing money from people. The most frequently cited charge that leads a prosecution attempt is aggravated identity theft. This charge accounts for 18.6% of the total charges that were filed within the last month. Mail fraud or conspiracy charges to commit offenses that defraud the country are also popular charges that are filed. In total, however, bank fraud and wire fraud are still the most popular white collar offenses that are investigated.

Src:
Brandon Gaille. Nov 2014.
34 Surprising White Collar Crimes Statistics.

*

White Collar Crime Prosecutions, 1995-2015

trac-white-collar-crime-prosecutions-1995-2015

trac-white-collar-crime-prosecutions-change-1995-2015

trac-white-collar-crime-top-charges-1995-2015

Src:
TRAC Reports. July 2015.
Federal White Collar Crime Prosecutions At 20-Year Low.
Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. Syracuse University.

***

Capital Punishment

The Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) tracks and aggregates historic data on capital punishment in the United States.

DPIC’s modern data set goes back to 1976

dpic-executions-1976-2016

DPIC has also collected execution data going back to 1608 in its “[Espy File],” based on research compiled by M. Watt Espy and John Ortiz Smykla. The Espy data is available in a few different formats at the DPIC website, but Time has published an interactive info graphic showing the total number of executions per year, integrating the Espy data with DPIC’s modern data.

Srcs:

DPIC. Updated October 19, 2016. Accessed November 3, 2016.
Executions by Year.
Executions in the U.S. 1608-2002: The Espy File.
“Espy File Data.” XLS

Chris Wilson. July 24, 2014.
Every Execution in U.S. History in a Single Chart.
Time.

TO DO: EXTRACT ANNUAL TALLIES OF EXECUTIONS FROM ESPY DATA FILE.

***

Incarceration

The Bureau of Justice Statistics tracks data on the US correctional population going back to at least 1980.

bjs-adult-correctional-population2014-1980


Google Spreadsheet

Src:
Bureau of Justice Statistics. Accessed November 3, 2016.
Key Statistic: Total Correctional Population.
“Estimated number of persons supervised by U.S. adult correctional systems, by correctional status, 1980-2014.” [XLS]
U.S. Department of Justice.

*

A compilation of historic incarceration rates, 1925-2014, is published a WikiCommons, citing data from the “Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics.

ualbany-incarceration-rates-1925-2014


Google Spreadsheet

Src:
Smallman12q. January 2010. Accessed November 3, 2016.
(Subsequently updated by other users)
File:U.S. incarceration rates 1925 onwards.png
Wikimedia Commons.

Citing:
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
and
University of Albany.
Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics (2003).
Table 6.28, P.500.

*

State and Fed facilities (confinement and community facilities)

The “Census of State and Federal Adult Correctional Facilities” has been conducted every 5 to 7 years since 1974. The census reports include a count of the number of facilities which were included in the survey. Below are excerpts from 1979-2005.

Confinement AND Community Facilities
1979 – 791
state confinement – 568
1984 – 903
state confinement – 694
1990 – 1,287
state confinement – 957
1995 – 1,500
state confinement – 1,084
2000* – 1,668
state confinement – 1,023
2005 – 1,821 (nearly all growth in private facilities)

Note: 2000 was the first year that specifically called out private facilities.

Src:
Bureau of Justice Statistics. 1979-2005.
Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities.” [multiple reports]
Data Collection: Census Of State And Federal Adult Correctional Facilities.
U.S. Department of Justice.