Extrapolations

Per Capita Rx Usage


Current data

Evaluate and IMS Health both track current and recent rates of drug prescription per capita.

From Evaluate:
2011: 10
2013: 9

src: 2013. Evaluate. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Spreadsheet shared by email, 2015 Sep 10.

From IMS Health:
2010: 11.46
2011: 11.33
2013: 12.2
2014: 2.1% more than 2013

Src (2010, 2011): 2012. IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. “The Use of Medicines in the United States: Review of 2011.″

Src (2013): 2014. IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. “Medicine use and shifting costs of healthcare: A review of the use of medicines in the United States in 2013.″

Src (2014): 2015. IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. “Medicines Use and Spending Shifts: A Review of the Use of Medicines in the U.S. in 2014.″

Michael Kleinrock, of IMS, explains via email that Rx usage rates have been very consistent for a very long time. Their data goes back to the early 90s, but the collection of age-band data is a relatively recent addition. They haven’t yet produced harmonized figures showing all of their historic data.

Forecast data

In 2008, a paper published by the Department of Health and Human Services gave forecasts for prescriptions dispensed per visit to the year 2030. Three forecasts were made for prescriptions per physician office visit, per hospital/clinic outpatient visit, and per emergency visit. The forecasts are divided into age bands for patients aged 0-44, 45 to 64, and 65 years and older. The forecasts are all based on analysis of the CDC’s National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) from 1995 to 2004, with trend extrapolation from 2005 to 2030.

Rx-per-office-visit-2030

Rx-per-hosp-outpatient-visit-2030

Rx-per-emergency-visit-2030

Src: 2008. Department of Health and Human Services. “The Adequacy of Pharmacist Supply: 2004 to 2030.” Exhibits 28-30, pp 31, 32.



Pharmaceutical Sales Through 2020


EvaluatePharma (life science market research firm) releases an annual report of current pharmaceutical sales figures with forecasts looking 5 years out.

According to the 2015 report, Novartis was the number one pharmaceutical company in 2014 and is forecast to maintain its position in 2020

Other indicators reported:
worldwide prescription drug sales (2006-2020)
regional prescription drug sales
Top 20 Companies by Rx sales in 2020
worldwide R&D spending by company
worldwide Rx drug & OTC sales by therapy area in 2020

Src: “World Preview 2015, Outlook to 2020.” 2015. Evaluate.

They also track sales volume and pricing including cost and volume per patient for the U.S. and other regions. Not available in the free report – contact them.

Media Contacts:
Evaluate and EP Vantage (for general questions)
Christine Lindgren
+1 617-866-3906
christine.lindgren@evaluategroup.com
Chempetitive Group (for U.S. media)
Rachel Wallace
+1 781-775-3640
rwallace@chempetitive.com